23 Snowberry Ln Unit A · Crestwood Village, NJ 08759

$130,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · MultiFamily · 28 Days on market

$107/sqft · 55% below area $286/mo HOA · 14% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.2/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully updated Oxford II offering 1,200 sq ft with gleaming hardwood floors, fresh paint, and modern finishes throughout. New garage door and open floorplan. Bright kitchen with tile flooring, backsplash, and matching appliances. Sun-filled front porch with leaded glass door, plus sliding doors to a large private backyard. Move-in ready with central air--don't miss this one! financing has to be cash

Key facts

• Bright kitchen
• Private backyard
• Modern finishes

Tags

• GLEAMING HARDWOOD FLOORS
• MODERN FINISHES
• BRIGHT KITCHEN
• TILE FLOORING
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• CENTRAL AIR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath multifamily listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $413 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $128k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 5.6% in Crestwood Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#422 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A, housing A, health & safety B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 648 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $130k implies a 53% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $128,050 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.63%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $288,810
• List price: $130,000
• Delta: -54.99%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $5,472
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.09×
• Total profit: $39,509
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08759

• Active inventory: 648
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,023 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$162 /mo · $1,950/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$286
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $413

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,499

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1 Morning Glory Ln Whiting, NJ	2.0	2.5	1312	$1,200	$0.91	3d	1	0.24mi
49 Westport Dr #71 Whiting, NJ	2.0	1.5	1192	$1,995	$1.67	43d	1	1.15mi
50 Westport Dr #71 Whiting, NJ	2.0	1.0	1120	$2,200	$1.96	1d	1	1.18mi
57D Milford Ave Unit 53 Whiting, NJ	2.0	1.0	880	$1,800	$2.05	24d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $286 · $3,432/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 410-char remark

   Show marketing remark (410 chars)

   Beautifully updated Oxford II offering 1,200 sq ft with gleaming hardwood floors, fresh paint, and modern finishes throughout. New garage door and open floorplan. Bright kitchen with tile flooring, backsplash, and matching appliances. Sun-filled front porch with leaded glass door, plus sliding doors to a large private backyard. Move-in ready with central air--don't miss this one! financing has to be cash

2. 2026-04-13
   listed $130,000 Active 410-char remark

   Show marketing remark (410 chars)

   Beautifully updated Oxford II offering 1,200 sq ft with gleaming hardwood floors, fresh paint, and modern finishes throughout. New garage door and open floorplan. Bright kitchen with tile flooring, backsplash, and matching appliances. Sun-filled front porch with leaded glass door, plus sliding doors to a large private backyard. Move-in ready with central air--don't miss this one! financing has to be cash

3. 2026-04-08
   historical
4. 2025-11-13
   price $132,900
5. 2025-09-05
   price $139,900
6. 2025-06-18
   listed $140,900 Active
7. 2021-05-11
   soldstatus $84,900 Sold
8. 2021-04-13
   status Pending
9. 2021-03-07
   listed $79,900 Active
10. 2019-01-15
    soldstatus $55,900 Sold
11. 2018-12-26
    status Pending
12. 2018-11-20
    listed $55,900 Active
13. 2018-06-26
    soldstatus $40,200 Sold
14. 2018-05-08
    status Pending
15. 2018-05-06
    listed $39,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 67% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,271
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$1,950
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,942
• − Management: −$1,942
• − HOA: −$3,432
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $3,292
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$790
• After-tax cash flow: $4,171/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Crestwood Village

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #422
• US rank: #15006

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Crestwood Village, NJ
• City population: 34,290
• Population (ZIP): 34,290

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -347.85%
• Current HPI: 274.4679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+225.8% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $130,000 MOMLS
• 2026-04-08 Delisted — MOMLS
• 2025-11-13 Price Changed $132,900 MOMLS
• 2025-09-05 Price Changed $139,900 MOMLS
• 2025-06-18 Listed $140,900 MOMLS
• 2021-05-11 Sold (MLS) $84,900 MOMLS
• 2021-04-13 Pending — MOMLS
• 2021-03-07 Listed $79,900 MOMLS
• 2019-01-15 Sold (MLS) $55,900 MOMLS
• 2018-12-26 Pending — MOMLS
• 2018-11-20 Listed $55,900 MOMLS
• 2018-06-26 Sold (MLS) $40,200 MOMLS
• 2018-05-08 Pending — MOMLS
• 2018-05-06 Listed $39,900 MOMLS