5039 Meadow Gay Dr · Tillmans Corner, AL 36619

$147,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,488 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1977 1.00 ac lot Est $198k · 26% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This brick 3-bed, 2-bath home offers solid bones and great potential for buyers looking to add value. The property features new flooring and fresh interior paint, providing a clean starting point for additional updates or customization. Inside, you’ll find a practical layout with an indoor laundry room and comfortable living spaces ready for the next owner’s vision. The den opens to a patio overlooking a nice, easy-to-maintain yard. There is a double carport connected to a wired workshop. Convenient location. Check it out soon!

Key facts

• New flooring
• Double carport
• Wired workshop

Tags

• NEW FLOORING
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• INDOOR LAUNDRY ROOM
• PATIO OVERLOOKING YARD
• DOUBLE CARPORT
• WIRED WORKSHOP

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-space carport; Driveway parking
• Security: No accessibility features listed
• Utilities: Cable available; Electricity available (110V and 220V); Natural gas available; Water available; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Subdivision: Gay Meadows; View available
• Construction: Brick 4 sides construction; Built in 1977; Slab foundation; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Fenced yard with wood fence; Workshop

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Other heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Other interior features; Dining L layout; Eat-in kitchen with view to family room
• Laundry & utility: No specific laundry details listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $147k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $413 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $147k).
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 5.1% in Tillmans Corner — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#260 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Mobile County (urban): math 15% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #81 of 129 in AL (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Wc Griggs Elementary School (math 18% / reading 52%, grade F, #291 of 627 statewide, top 47%, 619 students, 77% FRL); Katherine H Hankins Middle School (math 7% / reading 38%, grade F, #180 of 257 statewide, top 70%, 808 students, 82% FRL); Theodore High School (math 10% / reading 12%, grade F, #247 of 305 statewide, top 81%, 1,280 students, 60% FRL).
• Market conditions: 143 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $147,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.04%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $197,904
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6861 Somerset Ct	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,476 (-1%)	2mo	$185,000	$125	84
5167 Rudder Rd	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,539 (+3%)	2mo	$183,500	$119	84
5159 Rudder Rd	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,434 (-4%)	5mo	$56,000	$39	82
6761 Somerset Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,527 (+3%)	5mo	$214,000	$140	77
6770 King Arthur Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,350 (-9%)	1mo	$184,000	$136	69
7087 Lenardo Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,274 (-14%)	3mo	$170,000	$133	66
4770 Ivywood Dr	0.48mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,537 (+3%)	5mo	$178,000	$116	63
5161 Lancelot Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,307 (-12%)	2mo	$228,000	$174	58
4651 Emerald Dr W	0.56mi	3/1.5	1,375 (-8%)	5mo	$178,500	$130	55
5315 Knollwood Ct	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,269 (-15%)	2mo	$165,000	$130	54
5171 Fairland Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,328 (-11%)	1mo	$260,952	$197	51
5161 Fairland Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,350 (-9%)	5mo	$264,000	$196	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $2,421
• Equity at exit: $21,918

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.87×
• Total profit: $35,722
• Equity at exit: $12,710

Cash invested: $41,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36619

• Home prices YoY: -20.8%
• Active inventory: 143
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,627 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$771
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $486/yr
• Insurance: −$61
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$342
• Net cashflow: $413

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,105

Max offer price $147,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $496	-5% $455	+0% $413	+5% $371	+10% $330
Rent	-10% $284	-5% $349	+0% $413	+5% $477	+10% $542
Rate	-1.0pp $487	-0.5pp $450	base $413	+0.5pp $375	+1.0pp $336

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,750
• Closing costs: $4,410
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7411 Wigfield Rd Mobile, AL	3.0	2.0	1242	$1,650	$1.33	45d	1	1.13mi
5417 Quail Run E Theodore, AL	3.0	2.0	1242	$1,600	$1.29	23d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-16
   status $147,000 Pending 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $147,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   remarks 533-char remark
4. 2026-06-15
   listed $147,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $486 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $603 · $50/mo
• Expected delta: +$117/yr (+$10/mo · 24.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,529
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,234
• − Property taxes: −$486
• − Insurance: −$735
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,562
• − Management: −$1,562
• − Depreciation: −$4,276
• Taxable income: $2,673
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$641
• After-tax cash flow: $4,315/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mobile County
• NCES district ID: 0102370
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $42,455
• Composite: 22.9/100
• National rank: #8002
• State rank: #81 of 129 in AL

Livability — Tillmans Corner

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #260
• US rank: #18090

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tillmans Corner, AL
• City population: 14,550
• Population (ZIP): 14,550

Population outlook (Mobile County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 415,303 people
• By 2030: 411,755 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 399,670 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 382,616 · -7.9%
• By 2075: 337,353 · -18.8%
• By 2100: 283,391 · -31.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 11% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Vietnamese 5% Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mobile

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 41.3% · R 57.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+11.9 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.67%
• Current HPI: 197.1074
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $147,000 GCMLS AL