19007 Walden Forest Dr · Atascocita, TX 77346

$315,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,078 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 76 Days on market

Built 1983 8,216 sqft lot $102/sqft · 12% below area Est $356k · 12% under $29/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.7/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled in a desirable neighborhood, this charming property offers a spacious layout with modern upgrades. The open concept kitchen features stainless steel appliances and granite countertops. The master bedroom boasts a walk-in closet and en-suite bathroom. Enjoy the serene backyard perfect for outdoor gatherings. Close to schools, parks, golf and shopping, this home is ideal for families looking for both comfort and convenience. Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity to own a beautiful home in a great location. Contact me for more details and to schedule a viewing today!

Key facts

• Open concept kitchen
• Walk-in closet
• En-suite bathroom

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• SERENE BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-421 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $241k (23.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $257k (18.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $241k (23.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#346 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 669 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $158k; list at $315k implies a 99% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $240,577 (23.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.73%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $356,383
• List price: $315,000
• Delta: -11.61%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19507 Sandy Shore Ln	0.45mi	4/2.5	3,161 (+3%)	2mo	$319,000	$101	72
7614 Tumbling Rd	0.64mi	4/2.5	3,022 (-2%)	0mo	$379,900	$126	67
18711 Leisure Place Dr	0.38mi	4/2.5	2,790 (-9%)	1mo	$459,900	$165	66
19510 Evening Shades Ct	0.48mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,165 (+3%)	1mo	$380,000	$120	65
18706 Dempsey Oaks Dr	0.47mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,134 (+2%)	2mo	$439,900	$140	64
19226 Pinewood Mist Ln	0.71mi	4/2.5	3,132 (+2%)	5mo	$279,900	$89	60
19711 Powerscourt Dr	0.67mi	4/2.5	2,892 (-6%)	3mo	$400,000	$138	56
18906 Tranquility Dr	0.56mi	4/3.0	2,709 (-12%)	2mo	$429,000	$158	50
19702 Sweet Forest Ln	0.73mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,828 (-8%)	0mo	$299,900	$106	47
7911 Palmer Place Ln	0.46mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,723 (-12%)	5mo	$309,900	$114	46
19142 Sprinters Dr	0.64mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,756 (-10%)	2mo	$315,000	$114	46
18718 Racquet Sports Way	0.66mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,492 (+14%)	3mo	$379,999	$109	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.95% appreciation · 0.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-57,003
• Equity at exit: $76,731

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-85,321
• Equity at exit: $81,165

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77346

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 669
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,570 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$639 /mo · $7,673/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$540
• Net cashflow: $-421

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,103

Max offer price $240,577

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18718 Walden Forest Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.0	2224	$2,600	$1.17	2d	1	0.16mi
19119 Sprintwood Ct Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2487	$2,425	$0.98	22d	1	0.68mi
19603 Fairway Island Dr Humble, TX	5.0	2.5	3329	$6,500	$1.95	24d	1	0.79mi
18431 Sailfish Cove Dr Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	3264	$2,445	$0.75	10d	1	0.83mi
18810 Summer Anne Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	3000	$2,376	$0.79	43d	1	0.92mi
18810 Woodbreeze Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2200	$2,279	$1.04	24d	1	1.02mi
20502 Spoonwood Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	2302	$1,975	$0.86	43d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $315,000 Pending 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   statusdays on market $315,000 Pending 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $315,000 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $315,000 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $315,000 Active 71 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $315,000 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $315,000 Active 67 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $315,000 Active 66 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $315,000 Active 65 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $315,000 Active 62 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $315,000 Active 61 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $315,000 Active 60 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $315,000 Active 59 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $315,000 Active 58 DOM
15. 2026-04-03
    listed $320,000 Active 585-char remark

    Show marketing remark (585 chars)

    Nestled in a desirable neighborhood, this charming property offers a spacious layout with modern upgrades. The open concept kitchen features stainless steel appliances and granite countertops. The master bedroom boasts a walk-in closet and en-suite bathroom. Enjoy the serene backyard perfect for outdoor gatherings. Close to schools, parks, golf and shopping, this home is ideal for families looking for both comfort and convenience. Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity to own a beautiful home in a great location. Contact me for more details and to schedule a viewing today!

16. 2020-07-28
    soldstatus
17. 2020-07-24
    soldstatus Sold 1007-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1007 chars)

    Great opportunity- NOT a cookie-cutter house- custom built and priced to SELL! Backyard pool & spa is extra private! Inside: 4 bedrooms with a double door entry to the master bedroom suite on the first floor. En-suite master bath opens to "extra room" which makes a great craft/closet/nursery or laundry room. Separate MUD room, too! Gourmet kitchen with an over-sized island, gas cook top, soft close cabinets and drawers, under cabinet lighting & convection oven. The family room features a soaring ceiling and a dramatic stone fireplace w/ gas logs. Upstairs: 3 bedrooms, 2 baths and a charming game room. Backyard pool & spa- backs to a grassy area w/ no backyard neighbors! Oh, did I mention: Low E argon-filled windows (most are Anderson Windows), hardi-plank and brick exterior. Close to restaurants & shopping. Monthly dues to Walden Country Club allows access to dining/fitness center/pool and tennis. This home has it all and is waiting for your finishing touch!

18. 2020-07-02
    status Pending 1007-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1007 chars)

    Great opportunity- NOT a cookie-cutter house- custom built and priced to SELL! Backyard pool & spa is extra private! Inside: 4 bedrooms with a double door entry to the master bedroom suite on the first floor. En-suite master bath opens to "extra room" which makes a great craft/closet/nursery or laundry room. Separate MUD room, too! Gourmet kitchen with an over-sized island, gas cook top, soft close cabinets and drawers, under cabinet lighting & convection oven. The family room features a soaring ceiling and a dramatic stone fireplace w/ gas logs. Upstairs: 3 bedrooms, 2 baths and a charming game room. Backyard pool & spa- backs to a grassy area w/ no backyard neighbors! Oh, did I mention: Low E argon-filled windows (most are Anderson Windows), hardi-plank and brick exterior. Close to restaurants & shopping. Monthly dues to Walden Country Club allows access to dining/fitness center/pool and tennis. This home has it all and is waiting for your finishing touch!

19. 2020-06-20
    status Option Pending 1007-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1007 chars)

    Great opportunity- NOT a cookie-cutter house- custom built and priced to SELL! Backyard pool & spa is extra private! Inside: 4 bedrooms with a double door entry to the master bedroom suite on the first floor. En-suite master bath opens to "extra room" which makes a great craft/closet/nursery or laundry room. Separate MUD room, too! Gourmet kitchen with an over-sized island, gas cook top, soft close cabinets and drawers, under cabinet lighting & convection oven. The family room features a soaring ceiling and a dramatic stone fireplace w/ gas logs. Upstairs: 3 bedrooms, 2 baths and a charming game room. Backyard pool & spa- backs to a grassy area w/ no backyard neighbors! Oh, did I mention: Low E argon-filled windows (most are Anderson Windows), hardi-plank and brick exterior. Close to restaurants & shopping. Monthly dues to Walden Country Club allows access to dining/fitness center/pool and tennis. This home has it all and is waiting for your finishing touch!

20. 2020-06-16
    listed $239,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (1007 chars)

    Great opportunity- NOT a cookie-cutter house- custom built and priced to SELL! Backyard pool & spa is extra private! Inside: 4 bedrooms with a double door entry to the master bedroom suite on the first floor. En-suite master bath opens to "extra room" which makes a great craft/closet/nursery or laundry room. Separate MUD room, too! Gourmet kitchen with an over-sized island, gas cook top, soft close cabinets and drawers, under cabinet lighting & convection oven. The family room features a soaring ceiling and a dramatic stone fireplace w/ gas logs. Upstairs: 3 bedrooms, 2 baths and a charming game room. Backyard pool & spa- backs to a grassy area w/ no backyard neighbors! Oh, did I mention: Low E argon-filled windows (most are Anderson Windows), hardi-plank and brick exterior. Close to restaurants & shopping. Monthly dues to Walden Country Club allows access to dining/fitness center/pool and tennis. This home has it all and is waiting for your finishing touch!

21. 2020-06-16
    historical

    Show marketing remark (1007 chars)

    Great opportunity- NOT a cookie-cutter house- custom built and priced to SELL! Backyard pool & spa is extra private! Inside: 4 bedrooms with a double door entry to the master bedroom suite on the first floor. En-suite master bath opens to "extra room" which makes a great craft/closet/nursery or laundry room. Separate MUD room, too! Gourmet kitchen with an over-sized island, gas cook top, soft close cabinets and drawers, under cabinet lighting & convection oven. The family room features a soaring ceiling and a dramatic stone fireplace w/ gas logs. Upstairs: 3 bedrooms, 2 baths and a charming game room. Backyard pool & spa- backs to a grassy area w/ no backyard neighbors! Oh, did I mention: Low E argon-filled windows (most are Anderson Windows), hardi-plank and brick exterior. Close to restaurants & shopping. Monthly dues to Walden Country Club allows access to dining/fitness center/pool and tennis. This home has it all and is waiting for your finishing touch!

22. 2020-06-16
    listed $239,900 Active 1007-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1007 chars)

    Great opportunity- NOT a cookie-cutter house- custom built and priced to SELL! Backyard pool & spa is extra private! Inside: 4 bedrooms with a double door entry to the master bedroom suite on the first floor. En-suite master bath opens to "extra room" which makes a great craft/closet/nursery or laundry room. Separate MUD room, too! Gourmet kitchen with an over-sized island, gas cook top, soft close cabinets and drawers, under cabinet lighting & convection oven. The family room features a soaring ceiling and a dramatic stone fireplace w/ gas logs. Upstairs: 3 bedrooms, 2 baths and a charming game room. Backyard pool & spa- backs to a grassy area w/ no backyard neighbors! Oh, did I mention: Low E argon-filled windows (most are Anderson Windows), hardi-plank and brick exterior. Close to restaurants & shopping. Monthly dues to Walden Country Club allows access to dining/fitness center/pool and tennis. This home has it all and is waiting for your finishing touch!

23. 2004-12-17
    soldstatus
24. 2004-09-10
    soldstatus
25. 2004-07-13
    historical
26. 2004-05-10
    listed $169,900
27. 1999-10-11
    soldstatus $158,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,673 · $639/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,673 · $639/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,839
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$7,673
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,467
• − Management: −$2,467
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$10,499
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,520
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,536/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — Atascocita

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #7586

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Atascocita, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 79,538
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 79,538
• Household income: $122,241
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1072.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 21% Two or more races 18% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Current HPI: 218.0478
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+102.5% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Listed $320,000 HARMLS
• 2020-07-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-07-24 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2020-07-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-06-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-06-16 Listed $239,900 HARMLS
• 2020-06-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2020-06-16 Listed $239,900 HARMLS
• 2004-12-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-09-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-07-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2004-05-10 Listed $169,900 HARMLS
• 1999-10-11 Sold (Public Records) $158,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,673 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.