1523 Lakeside Dr #15 · Venice Gardens, FL 34293

$159,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,195 sqft · Condo public records · 211 Days on market

Built 1967 $250/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.2/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Situated in the welcoming Caribbean Villas II community, this 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom villa offers a great opportunity for a buyer who sees the value in updating a property to their own taste. HOA fees only $240 monthly! The floor plan provides comfortable everyday living, and the furnace and A/C were both replaced in 2024, giving you a solid head start on major improvements. The washer and dryer are tucked away in a laundry room conveniently located outside. The carport was recently removed and will be replaced by the association, offering peace of mind for the new owner. With a little refreshing, this home can become a charming seasonal getaway or a cozy year-round residence. Plus, you’ll enjoy an excellent location just minutes from downtown Venice, where you can experience local dining, shopping, stunning beaches, and all the everyday conveniences that make this area such a wonderful place to call home — and with easy access to I-75, travel to nearby cities and attractions is a breeze.

Key facts

• Excellent location
• Easy access to i-75
• Parking

Tags

• CARIBBEAN VILLAS II COMMUNITY
• FURNACE AND A C REPLACED
• EXCELLENT LOCATION
• EASY ACCESS TO I-75

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $558 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#537 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1247 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 211 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 211 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.96%
• DSCR: 1.67
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.7% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $4,602
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.67×
• Total profit: $30,075
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34293

• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 1247
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,276 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$85 /mo · $1,020/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$250
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$478
• Net cashflow: $558

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,570

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $250 · $3,000/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,900 Active 211 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,900 Active 210 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,900 Active 209 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,900 Active 208 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,900 Active 206 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,900 Active 205 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $159,900 Active 203 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,900 Active 202 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,900 Active 200 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $159,900 Active 197 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,900 Active 196 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,900 Active 195 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,900 Active 194 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,900 Active 193 DOM
15. 2026-03-19
    price $159,900 1014-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1014 chars)

    Situated in the welcoming Caribbean Villas II community, this 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom villa offers a great opportunity for a buyer who sees the value in updating a property to their own taste. HOA fees only $240 monthly! The floor plan provides comfortable everyday living, and the furnace and A/C were both replaced in 2024, giving you a solid head start on major improvements. The washer and dryer are tucked away in a laundry room conveniently located outside. The carport was recently removed and will be replaced by the association, offering peace of mind for the new owner. With a little refreshing, this home can become a charming seasonal getaway or a cozy year-round residence. Plus, you’ll enjoy an excellent location just minutes from downtown Venice, where you can experience local dining, shopping, stunning beaches, and all the everyday conveniences that make this area such a wonderful place to call home — and with easy access to I-75, travel to nearby cities and attractions is a breeze.

16. 2025-11-19
    listed $175,000 Active 1014-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1014 chars)

    Situated in the welcoming Caribbean Villas II community, this 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom villa offers a great opportunity for a buyer who sees the value in updating a property to their own taste. HOA fees only $240 monthly! The floor plan provides comfortable everyday living, and the furnace and A/C were both replaced in 2024, giving you a solid head start on major improvements. The washer and dryer are tucked away in a laundry room conveniently located outside. The carport was recently removed and will be replaced by the association, offering peace of mind for the new owner. With a little refreshing, this home can become a charming seasonal getaway or a cozy year-round residence. Plus, you’ll enjoy an excellent location just minutes from downtown Venice, where you can experience local dining, shopping, stunning beaches, and all the everyday conveniences that make this area such a wonderful place to call home — and with easy access to I-75, travel to nearby cities and attractions is a breeze.

17. 2006-12-05
    soldstatus $153,000
18. 1990-08-20
    soldstatus $52,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,020 · $85/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,327 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: +$307/yr (+$26/mo · 30.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,315
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$1,020
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,185
• − Management: −$2,185
• − HOA: −$3,000
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable income: $4,517
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,084
• After-tax cash flow: $5,613/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sarasota
• NCES district ID: 1201680
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,167
• Composite: 53.68/100
• National rank: #1428
• State rank: #7 of 73 in FL

Livability — Venice Gardens

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #537
• US rank: #10074

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Sarasota County · 448,376 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 50,278
• Household income: $90,038
• Rent vs Own: 11.3% rent · 88.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 548.0

Population outlook (Sarasota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 452,380 people
• By 2030: 474,175 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 511,577 · +13.1%
• By 2050: 541,467 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 604,947 · +33.7%
• By 2100: 621,965 · +37.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sarasota

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.5% · R 58.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+11.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -355.64%
• Current HPI: 270.5242
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.70%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+207.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $159,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-19 Listed $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-12-05 Sold (Public Records) $153,000 Public Records
• 1990-08-20 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,020 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.