1694 Roy Caldwell St · Morganton, NC 28655

$169,400

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · Manufactured public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1999 0.69 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom double-wide manufactured home situated on a spacious 0.69-acre lot! Offering the perfect blend of comfort, functionality, and outdoor space, this property is ideal for first-time homebuyers, downsizers, or anyone seeking peaceful country living. Step inside to find a thoughtfully designed floor plan with generous living areas, a functional kitchen, and comfortable bedrooms. The primary suite features a private bath and ample space to unwind after a long day. The additional bedrooms provide flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. Major updates have already been completed, including a roof replacement in 2018 and a new HVAC

Key facts

• Private bath
• Spacious lot
• Roof replacement

Tags

• DOUBLE-WIDE MANUFACTURED HOME
• SPACIOUS LOT
• PRIVATE BATH
• ROOF REPLACEMENT
• NEW HVAC SYSTEM
• ROOM FOR GARDENING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No HOA

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: City water; Septic installed
• Home design: Manufactured doublewide single-family residence; One level; Crawl space foundation
• Construction: Manufactured construction; Vinyl exterior
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 0.69 acres; Gravel and concrete road access; Publicly maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Refrigerator included; Single-level living
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $235 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $158k (6.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $158k (6.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.7% in Morganton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#149 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities D, schools F, crime D-.
• Burke County Schools (rural): math 43% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #89 of 178 in NC (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 431 active listings in the ZIP; 422 units permitted in Burke County in 2024 (94 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burke County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,658 (6.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.96%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-12,527
• Equity at exit: $25,258

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $8,100
• Equity at exit: $14,647

Cash invested: $47,432 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28655

• Home prices YoY: -13.2%
• Active inventory: 431
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,577 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$888
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $613/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $235

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,278

Max offer price $169,400

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $331	-5% $283	+0% $235	+5% $188	+10% $140
Rent	-10% $111	-5% $173	+0% $235	+5% $298	+10% $360
Rate	-1.0pp $321	-0.5pp $279	base $235	+0.5pp $192	+1.0pp $147

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,350
• Closing costs: $5,082
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-19
   pricedays on market $169,400 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $171,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $171,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $171,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $171,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $171,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $613 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,389 · $116/mo
• Expected delta: +$776/yr (+$65/mo · 126.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,919
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,489
• − Property taxes: −$613
• − Insurance: −$847
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,514
• − Management: −$1,514
• − Depreciation: −$4,928
• Taxable income: $15
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4
• After-tax cash flow: $2,822/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Burke County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700480
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $38,342
• Composite: 37.51/100
• National rank: #4400
• State rank: #89 of 178 in NC

Livability — Morganton

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #149
• US rank: #8307

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Burke County · 55,100 people
• City population: 55,100
• Metro: Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton, NC
• Population (ZIP): 55,100
• Household income: $57,713
• Rent vs Own: 27.3% rent · 72.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1145.0

Population outlook (Burke County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 86,552 people
• By 2030: 84,123 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 78,165 · -9.7%
• By 2050: 71,099 · -17.9%
• By 2075: 56,264 · -35.0%
• By 2100: 44,742 · -48.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 8% Two or more races 5% Asian 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Burke

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+41.2) · D 29.0% · R 70.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.0pp toward R · 2008: -19.2pp · 2024: -41.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+41.2 2020: R+40.1 2016: R+39.4 2012: R+23.6 2008: R+19.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.07%
• Current HPI: 362.0732
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $171,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $613 · -0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.