420 Old Richton Rd · Petal, MS 39465

$99,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 89 Days on market

Built 1949 0.30 ac lot $96/sqft · 30% below area Est $146k · 32% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

420 Old Richton Rd, Petal -- Charming 2 bed / 1 bath home in the desirable Petal School District. Recently updated with a brand-new roof, new deck, and important repairs already completed. Interior features include granite countertops and an open, functional layout ready for your personal touches. Fenced backyard offers privacy and room for outdoor living. Property qualifies for USDA, VA, and FHA financing. Ideal for first-time buyers, investors, or downsizers seeking value in a great neighborhood. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• New deck
• Granite countertops
• Fenced backyard

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW DECK
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• FENCED BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $259 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 4.0% in Petal — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#18 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Petal School District (suburban): math 68% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #2 of 130 in MS (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 228 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 121 units permitted in Forrest County in 2024 (30 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Forrest County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $93,906 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.10%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $145,938
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: -31.55%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
310 E Cherry Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,100 (+6%)	8mo	$165,000	$150	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $281
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.77×
• Total profit: $21,408
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39465

• Active inventory: 228
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,134 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $857/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$238
• Net cashflow: $259

Break-even live

Break-even rent $806

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
120 E First Ave Petal, MS	2.0	1.0	1062	$995	$0.94	43d	1	0.33mi
523 E Fifth Ave Petal, MS	3.0	1.0	1098	$1,500	$1.37	21d	1	0.60mi

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $99,900 Active 89 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 88 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 87 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 86 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 85 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,900 Active 83 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,900 Active 82 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,900 Active 80 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 79 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $99,900 Active 78 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,900 Active 77 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,900 Active 74 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,900 Active 72 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,900 Active 71 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 70 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $99,900 Active 69 DOM
17. 2026-05-19
    price $99,900 532-char remark

    Show marketing remark (530 chars)

    420 Old Richton Rd, Petal-- Charming 2 bed/ 1 bath home in the desirable Petal School District. Recently updated with a brand-new roof, new deck, and important repairs already completed. Interior features include granite countertops and an open, functional layout ready for your personal touches. Fenced backyard offers privacy and room for outdoor living. Property qualifies for USDA, VA, and FHA financing. Ideal for first-time buyers, investors, or downsizers seeking value in a great neighborhood. Schedule your showing today!

18. 2026-05-19
    price $99,900 530-char remark

    Show marketing remark (530 chars)

    420 Old Richton Rd, Petal-- Charming 2 bed/ 1 bath home in the desirable Petal School District. Recently updated with a brand-new roof, new deck, and important repairs already completed. Interior features include granite countertops and an open, functional layout ready for your personal touches. Fenced backyard offers privacy and room for outdoor living. Property qualifies for USDA, VA, and FHA financing. Ideal for first-time buyers, investors, or downsizers seeking value in a great neighborhood. Schedule your showing today!

19. 2026-04-12
    price $104,900 532-char remark

    Show marketing remark (530 chars)

    420 Old Richton Rd, Petal-- Charming 2 bed/ 1 bath home in the desirable Petal School District. Recently updated with a brand-new roof, new deck, and important repairs already completed. Interior features include granite countertops and an open, functional layout ready for your personal touches. Fenced backyard offers privacy and room for outdoor living. Property qualifies for USDA, VA, and FHA financing. Ideal for first-time buyers, investors, or downsizers seeking value in a great neighborhood. Schedule your showing today!

20. 2026-04-12
    price $104,900 530-char remark

    Show marketing remark (530 chars)

    420 Old Richton Rd, Petal-- Charming 2 bed/ 1 bath home in the desirable Petal School District. Recently updated with a brand-new roof, new deck, and important repairs already completed. Interior features include granite countertops and an open, functional layout ready for your personal touches. Fenced backyard offers privacy and room for outdoor living. Property qualifies for USDA, VA, and FHA financing. Ideal for first-time buyers, investors, or downsizers seeking value in a great neighborhood. Schedule your showing today!

21. 2026-03-20
    listed $109,000 Active 532-char remark

    Show marketing remark (530 chars)

    420 Old Richton Rd, Petal-- Charming 2 bed/ 1 bath home in the desirable Petal School District. Recently updated with a brand-new roof, new deck, and important repairs already completed. Interior features include granite countertops and an open, functional layout ready for your personal touches. Fenced backyard offers privacy and room for outdoor living. Property qualifies for USDA, VA, and FHA financing. Ideal for first-time buyers, investors, or downsizers seeking value in a great neighborhood. Schedule your showing today!

22. 2026-03-20
    listed $109,000 Active 530-char remark

    Show marketing remark (530 chars)

    420 Old Richton Rd, Petal-- Charming 2 bed/ 1 bath home in the desirable Petal School District. Recently updated with a brand-new roof, new deck, and important repairs already completed. Interior features include granite countertops and an open, functional layout ready for your personal touches. Fenced backyard offers privacy and room for outdoor living. Property qualifies for USDA, VA, and FHA financing. Ideal for first-time buyers, investors, or downsizers seeking value in a great neighborhood. Schedule your showing today!

23. 2026-01-15
    historical
24. 2025-10-28
    price $87,500
25. 2025-10-28
    price $87,500
26. 2025-09-17
    price $89,900
27. 2025-09-12
    price $89,900
28. 2025-09-03
    price $95,000
29. 2025-09-02
    price $95,000
30. 2025-08-23
    listed $99,900 Active
31. 2025-08-22
    listed $99,900 Active
32. 2023-02-23
    soldstatus
33. 2020-12-02
    soldstatus
34. 2020-08-30
    listed $76,500
35. 2020-02-03
    listed $78,000
36. 2002-01-18
    soldstatus
37. 2001-11-06
    listed $39,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $857 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $857 · $71/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,607
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$857
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,089
• − Management: −$1,089
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $1,571
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$377
• After-tax cash flow: $2,729/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Petal School District
• NCES district ID: 2803530
• Math proficiency: 68% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,872
• Composite: 52.97/100
• National rank: #1526
• State rank: #2 of 130 in MS

Livability — Petal

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #18
• US rank: #5565

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Petal, MS
• County: Forrest County · 65,413 people
• City population: 22,882
• Metro: Hattiesburg, MS
• Population (ZIP): 22,882
• Household income: $74,035
• Rent vs Own: 22.7% rent · 77.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 199.0

Population outlook (Forrest County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 79,264 people
• By 2030: 80,822 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 82,979 · +4.7%
• By 2050: 84,324 · +6.4%
• By 2075: 84,942 · +7.2%
• By 2100: 80,616 · +1.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Black 13% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Forrest

• 2024 margin: R (+17.9) · D 40.3% · R 58.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -17.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.9 2020: R+11.1 2016: R+14.2 2012: R+11.7 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -96.97%
• Current HPI: 158.6021
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Hattiesburg, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+152.9% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $99,900 HAAR
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $99,900 MLSU
• 2026-04-12 Price Changed $104,900 HAAR
• 2026-04-12 Price Changed $104,900 MLSU
• 2026-03-20 Listed $109,000 MLSU
• 2026-03-20 Listed $109,000 HAAR
• 2026-01-15 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2025-10-28 Price Changed $87,500 MLSU
• 2025-10-28 Price Changed $87,500 HAAR
• 2025-09-17 Price Changed $89,900 MLSU
• 2025-09-12 Price Changed $89,900 HAAR
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed $95,000 MLSU
• 2025-09-02 Price Changed $95,000 HAAR
• 2025-08-23 Listed $99,900 HAAR
• 2025-08-22 Listed $99,900 MLSU
• 2023-02-23 Sold (MLS) — HAAR
• 2020-12-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-08-30 Listed $76,500 HAAR
• 2020-02-03 Listed $78,000 HAAR
• 2002-01-18 Sold (MLS) — HAAR
• 2001-11-06 Listed $39,500 HAAR

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $857 · +16.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.