NHN Shell Lk · Skwentna, AK 99667

$95,000

2 bd · None ba · 896 sqft · SingleFamily · 618 Days on market

Built 1983 Poor condition 5.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.6/30.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.1/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fly or Snowmachine In to Your Private and Rustic Alaskan Cabin on Peaceful Shell Lake w/245' Lakefront! 2-Story Cabin w/ Queen Bed Down, 2 Twins in Loft. 4-Brner Cooktop w/5 Gallon Propane Tank, Wood Stove, Indoor ''recycle'' Toilet. 12x12 Deck. Tennessee Red Cedar Sauna w/Wood Stove & Bench Built Near Lake. All Fishing Gear, Cooking Gear, 12' Skiff, Ski Doo Machines will Stay with Sale! Land your floatplane, tie up on the bank (2 ties in the water) or snowmachine out in winter. Property has leaching system-cabin has indoor recycle toilet (however it leaks and needs to be repaired)- pull out toilet and drain it. Outhouse also available. All fishing gear, tools, (tools storage cabinet under cabin), kitchen dishes and cutlery, are included in the sale. 12' Skiff w/2 outboard motors (5 hp motor and 10 hp motor) will stay with property. Seller has no knowledge if they are in good working condition. Also included are 2 older ski doo machines (seller believes they need work). Snow machine trail nearby. Coleman and wick lanterns for light. Haul in water or use lake water.

Key facts

• Wood stove & sauna
• 5 acre lot
• Built 1983

Tags

• PRIVATE LAKEFRONT CABIN
• WOOD STOVE & SAUNA
• FISHING GEAR INCLUDED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/?-bath single-family listed at $95k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $196 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 41/100 on livability (#303 in AK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 27 active listings in the ZIP; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($657 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 618 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $83,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 618 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.85%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.90×
• Total profit: $23,960
• Equity at exit: $42,716

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.55×
• Total profit: $67,814
• Equity at exit: $65,831

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99667

• Active inventory: 27
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,079 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$119 /mo · $1,425/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$227
• Net cashflow: $196

Break-even live

Break-even rent $831

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 618 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 617 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 616 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 615 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $95,000 Active 613 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 612 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $95,000 Active 610 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active 609 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $95,000 Active 608 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $95,000 Active 607 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $95,000 Active 603 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,000 Active 602 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 601 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 600 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $95,000 Active 599 DOM
16. 2024-10-08
    listed $95,000 Active 1098-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1098 chars)

    Fly or Snowmachine In to Your Private and Rustic Alaskan Cabin on Peaceful Shell Lake w/245' Lakefront! 2-Story Cabin w/ Queen Bed Down, 2 Twins in Loft. 4-Brner Cooktop w/5 Gallon Propane Tank, Wood Stove, Indoor ''recycle'' Toilet. 12x12 Deck. Tennessee Red Cedar Sauna w/Wood Stove & Bench Built Near Lake. All Fishing Gear, Cooking Gear, 12' Skiff, Ski Doo Machines will Stay with Sale! Land your floatplane, tie up on the bank (2 ties in the water) or snowmachine out in winter. Property has leaching system-cabin has indoor recycle toilet (however it leaks and needs to be repaired)- pull out toilet and drain it. Outhouse also available. All fishing gear, tools, (tools storage cabinet under cabin), kitchen dishes and cutlery, are included in the sale. 12' Skiff w/2 outboard motors (5 hp motor and 10 hp motor) will stay with property. Seller has no knowledge if they are in good working condition. Also included are 2 older ski doo machines (seller believes they need work). Snow machine trail nearby. Coleman and wick lanterns for light. Haul in water or use lake water.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,954
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,425
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,036
• − Management: −$1,036
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $896
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$215
• After-tax cash flow: $2,140/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This rustic cabin requires extensive repairs and updates to improve its condition and value. Key areas needing attention include the kitchen, exterior, interior walls, flooring, and toilet. Modernizing these elements will significantly enhance its resale and rental potential.

Repairs flagged

• Major Kitchen countertop — Severely worn and needs replacement
• Major Kitchen sink — Dated and in poor condition
• Major Exterior siding — Weathered and needs replacement
• Major Exterior roof — Weathered shingles
• Major Interior walls — Worn paint and potential structural issues
• Major Interior flooring — Worn carpet
• Major Interior toilet — Leaking and needs replacement

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Replace countertops and sink — Modern and functional kitchen
• Resale Replace siding and roof — Aesthetic improvement and durability
• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances appeal
• Resale Replace flooring — Fresh carpet improves comfort and appearance
• Resale Replace indoor toilet — Modern toilet improves functionality
• Rental Replace wood stove — Modern stove improves heating efficiency and comfort

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen countertop · Severely worn and needs replacement	Major	$15,000–50,000
Kitchen sink · Dated and in poor condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exterior siding · Weathered and needs replacement	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exterior roof · Weathered shingles	Major	$15,000–50,000
Interior walls · Worn paint and potential structural issues	Major	$15,000–50,000
Interior flooring · Worn carpet	Major	$15,000–50,000
Interior toilet · Leaking and needs replacement	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 7 items		$105,000–350,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Replace countertops and sink — Modern and functional kitchen ↑
• Resale Replace siding and roof — Aesthetic improvement and durability ↑
• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances appeal ↑
• Resale Replace flooring — Fresh carpet improves comfort and appearance ↑
• Resale Replace indoor toilet — Modern toilet improves functionality ↑
• Rental Replace wood stove — Modern stove improves heating efficiency and comfort ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200510
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,325
• Composite: 41.38/100
• National rank: #3484
• State rank: #5 of 21 in AK

Livability — Skwentna

• Score: 41/100
• State rank: #303
• US rank: #27117

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Skwentna, AK
• Population (ZIP): 152

Population outlook (Matanuska-Susitna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 126,730 people
• By 2030: 139,641 · +10.2%
• By 2040: 165,122 · +30.3%
• By 2050: 189,697 · +49.7%
• By 2075: 249,959 · +97.2%
• By 2100: 288,077 · +127.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Native American 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 5% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Matanuska-Susitna

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2024-10-08 Listed $95,000 AKMLS