5301 NW 25th Pl · Gainesville, FL 32606

$250,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,233 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1978 10,019 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming and inviting, this 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home is nestled on a peaceful, tree-lined street in Gainesville. Step inside to a spacious living room featuring a cozy wood-burning fireplace, perfect for relaxing evenings. The galley-style kitchen offers a functional layout with a large eat-in dining area and pantry for added storage. The primary bedroom includes a private en suite bathroom with bright ceramic tile and a window that fills the space with natural light. Both guest bedrooms feature double closets, providing plenty of storage options. The oversized 2-car attached garage offers extra room for storage, hobbies, or workspace. Enjoy outdoor living in the fully fenced backyard, co

Key facts

• Double closets
• Eat in dining area
• Galley style kitchen

Tags

• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• GALLEY STYLE KITCHEN
• EAT IN DINING AREA
• PRIVATE EN SUITE BATHROOM
• DOUBLE CLOSETS
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-28 ($-333/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $245k (2.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (20.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (20.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#97 in FL, #1,480 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
• Alachua (urban): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #30 of 73 in FL (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hidden Oak Elementary School (math 70% / reading 70%, grade A-, #345 of 2,144 statewide, top 17%, 775 students, 36% FRL); F. W. Buchholz High School (math 49% / reading 66%, grade C, #125 of 667 statewide, top 19%, 2,540 students, 36% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Alachua average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 140 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,774 units permitted in Alachua County in 2024 (984 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alachua County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $107k; list at $250k implies a 134% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $197,772 (20.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.48%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-41,492
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-35,152
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32606

• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 140
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,978 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$175 /mo · $2,099/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $-28

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,013

Max offer price $245,103

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $114	-5% $43	+0% $-28	+5% $-98	+10% $-169
Rent	-10% $-184	-5% $-106	+0% $-28	+5% $50	+10% $129
Rate	-1.0pp $98	-0.5pp $36	base $-28	+0.5pp $-92	+1.0pp $-158

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-26
   status Pending
3. 2026-03-20
   listed $250,000 Active
4. 2003-07-07
   soldstatus $107,000
5. 1978-01-01
   soldstatus $39,300

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,099 · $175/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,099 · $175/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,733
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$2,099
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,899
• − Management: −$1,899
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$4,690
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,126
• After-tax cash flow: $793/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alachua
• NCES district ID: 1200030
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,683
• Composite: 43.31/100
• National rank: #3038
• State rank: #30 of 73 in FL

Livability — Gainesville

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #97
• US rank: #1480

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Alachua County · 218,005 people
• City population: 188,348
• Metro: Gainesville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,022
• Household income: $87,953
• Rent vs Own: 53.0% rent · 47.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1498.0

Population outlook (Alachua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 289,834 people
• By 2030: 305,873 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 335,246 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 364,719 · +25.8%
• By 2075: 436,665 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 482,920 · +66.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Black 15% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 8% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Alachua

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.0) · D 59.7% · R 38.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.6pp no change · 2008: 21.6pp · 2024: 21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.0 2020: D+27.2 2016: D+22.5 2012: D+17.3 2008: D+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -166.59%
• Current HPI: 254.311
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.42%
• Metro: Gainesville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+536.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-26 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-20 Listed $250,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-07-07 Sold (Public Records) $107,000 Public Records
• 1978-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $39,300 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,099 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.