45 Chesapeake Mobile Ct · Severn, MD 21076

$76,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily · 196 Days on market

Built 2015 Good condition $63/sqft · 78% below area ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Built 2015
• Listed 195 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $76k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $76k).
• Recommended offer: $67k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 31.5% vs local median 4.0% in Severn — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#175 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: schools D+, crime D+, amenities F.
• Anne Arundel County Public Schools (suburban): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #10 of 24 in MD (top 42%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 150 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,303 units permitted in Anne Arundel County in 2024 (299 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $525 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Anne Arundel County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.4% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 196 days — a 12% lower offer ($67k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $66,880 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 196 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 31.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 90.08%
• DSCR: 5.01
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $348,768
• List price: $76,000
• Delta: -78.21%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.41% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 89.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.01×
• Total profit: $85,234
• Equity at exit: $11,332

10-year hold

• IRR: 91.6%
• Equity multiple: 9.86×
• Total profit: $188,574
• Equity at exit: $6,571

Cash invested: $21,280 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21076

• Home prices YoY: -33.9%
• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 150
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,687 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$399
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$95 /mo · $1,140/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$564
• Net cashflow: $1,597

Break-even live

Break-even rent $665

Max offer price $76,000

Occupancy floor 36%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,650	-5% $1,624	+0% $1,597	+5% $1,571	+10% $1,545
Rent	-10% $1,385	-5% $1,491	+0% $1,597	+5% $1,704	+10% $1,810
Rate	-1.0pp $1,636	-0.5pp $1,617	base $1,597	+0.5pp $1,578	+1.0pp $1,558

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,000
• Closing costs: $2,280
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1624 Hardwick Ct #402 Hanover, MD	2.0	2.0	1407	$2,400	$1.71	44d	1	0.23mi
7557 Stoney Run Dr #101 Hanover, MD	2.0	2.0	1407	$2,350	$1.67	44d	1	0.32mi
1447 Pangbourne Way Hanover, MD	4.0	3.5	1450	$2,800	$1.93	44d	1	1.10mi
1811 Battlement Ct Severn, MD	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	21d	1	1.13mi
2109 Piney Branch Cir Hanover, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	979	$3,577	$3.65	2d	39	1.23mi
8001 Laketowne Ct Severn, MD	2.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	1014	$2,694	$2.66	4d	18	1.34mi
7694 Dorchester Blvd Hanover, MD	2.0	1.0–2.0	855	$3,198	$3.74	3d	12	1.35mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $76,000 Active 196 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $76,000 Active 193 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $76,000 Active 192 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $76,000 Active 191 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $76,000 Active 190 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $76,000 Active 188 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $76,000 Active 184 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $76,000 Active 183 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $76,000 Active 182 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $76,000 Active 179 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $76,000 Active 178 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $76,000 Active 177 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $76,000 Active 176 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $76,000 Active 175 DOM
15. 2026-04-01
    price $76,000
16. 2026-04-01
    status Active
17. 2026-03-26
    historical
18. 2026-01-27
    price $81,000
19. 2026-01-27
    price $80,000
20. 2025-12-01
    listed $86,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,243
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,257
• − Property taxes: −$1,140
• − Insurance: −$380
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,579
• − Management: −$2,579
• − Depreciation: −$2,211
• Taxable income: $19,096
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,583
• After-tax cash flow: $14,586/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This mobile home is in excellent condition with recent updates, making it move-in ready for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Improves property's visual appeal
• Both New roof inspection and maintenance — Ensures structural integrity and longevity

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Improves property's visual appeal ↑
• Both New roof inspection and maintenance — Ensures structural integrity and longevity ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Anne Arundel County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400060
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $87,880
• Composite: 28.52/100
• National rank: #6733
• State rank: #10 of 24 in MD

Livability — Severn

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #175
• US rank: #7833

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Severn, MD
• County: Anne Arundel County · 535,653 people
• City population: 37,118
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 24,268
• Household income: $146,869
• Rent vs Own: 34.2% rent · 65.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 497.0

Population outlook (Anne Arundel County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 617,384 people
• By 2030: 642,094 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 686,621 · +11.2%
• By 2050: 723,031 · +17.1%
• By 2075: 809,346 · +31.1%
• By 2100: 837,658 · +35.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 37% Black 31% Asian 15% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 5% Korean 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Anne Arundel

• 2024 margin: D (+13.9) · D 55.7% · R 41.7% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +15.7pp toward D · 2008: -1.8pp · 2024: 13.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.9 2020: D+14.5 2016: D+0.7 2012: R+0.9 2008: R+1.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -131.77%
• Current HPI: 257.5612
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.41%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

-11.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $76,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-01 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-26 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $81,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $80,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-01 Listed $86,000 BRIGHT MLS