23 Guilford St · Buffalo, NY 14212

$189,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,322 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 2009 6,900 sqft lot Est $159k · 19% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.5/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 23 Guilford St! This well-maintained ranch, built in 2009, offers the convenience of single-level living with a spacious and functional layout. Featuring 4 bedrooms and 1.5 bathrooms across 1,322 square feet, this home provides plenty of room for comfortable everyday living. Inside, you'll find modern touches including recessed lighting and durable vinyl plank flooring throughout much of the home. The kitchen comes fully equipped with all appliances included, making this home truly move-in ready. The thoughtful layout offers great flow between living spaces while still providing privacy for the bedrooms. Exterior features include low-maintenance vinyl siding, a welcoming front po

Key facts

• Single-level living
• Spacious driveway
• Modern touches

Tags

• SINGLE-LEVEL LIVING
• MODERN TOUCHES
• FULLY EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• LOW-MAINTENANCE VINYL SIDING
• WELCOMING FRONT PORCH
• SPACIOUS DRIVEWAY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $283 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (6.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (6.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($186k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $116k; list at $189k implies a 62% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,448 (6.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.42%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $158,640
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
23 Guilford St	0.00mi	4/1.5	1,322 (0%)	1mo	$190,000	$144	100
255 Reed St	0.45mi	4/1.0	1,294 (-2%)	6mo	$125,000	$97	69
635 Jefferson Ave	0.53mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,330 (+1%)	1mo	$220,000	$165	68
189 Reed St	0.33mi	4/1.0	1,261 (-5%)	10mo	$145,000	$115	67
83 Reed St	0.14mi	5/1.0 (+1)	1,156 (-13%)	1mo	$100,000	$87	64
553 William St	0.66mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,279 (-3%)	5mo	$231,750	$181	54
513 High St	0.59mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,270 (-4%)	7mo	$95,000	$75	53
47 John Paul Ct Ct	0.64mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,274 (-4%)	4mo	$234,900	$184	52
95 Peckham St	0.51mi	4/1.0	1,249 (-6%)	18mo	$150,000	$120	50
70 Camp St	0.67mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,324 (+0%)	21mo	$245,000	$185	46
246 Fox St	0.42mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,180 (-11%)	12mo	$57,000	$48	45
598 High St	0.54mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,139 (-14%)	7mo	$115,000	$101	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.28×
• Total profit: $120,865
• Equity at exit: $170,266

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.45×
• Total profit: $341,582
• Equity at exit: $367,185

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14212

• Home prices YoY: 20.4%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,774 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$49 /mo · $588/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $283

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,416

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
518 Wilson St Buffalo, NY	5.0	1.5	1848	$1,500	$0.81	23d	1	0.46mi
408 Winslow Ave Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,050	$1.05	14d	1	1.43mi
17 N Pearl St Unit 3 Buffalo, NY	3.0	2.0	1197	$3,100	$2.59	23d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-03-26
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-10
   listed $189,000 Active
3. 2010-03-29
   soldstatus $116,340

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $588 · $49/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,891 · $158/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,303/yr (+$109/mo · 221.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 49% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,294
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$588
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,704
• − Management: −$1,704
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable income: $268
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$64
• After-tax cash flow: $3,331/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• City population: 440,021
• Population (ZIP): 13,603

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 32% Black 27% Asian 25% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Philippines, Canada, China
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Other Indo-European 18% Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 79.80%
• Current HPI: 471.6399
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+62.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-03-10 Listed $189,000 WNYREIS
• 2010-03-29 Sold (Public Records) $116,340 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $588 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.