2650 W Union Hills Dr #82 · Phoenix, AZ 85027

$54,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Manufactured · 159 Days on market

Built 1971 Good condition $45/sqft · 7% below area Est $58k · 7% under ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.4/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Home, sweet home! This lovely 2-bedroom mobile home greets you with a welcoming front porch perfect for enjoying morning coffee. You'll be delighted by the appealing open layout with a soothing palette, blinds, and stylish wood-look flooring. The kitchen comes with abundant wood cabinetry, a mosaic tile backsplash, stainless steel appliances, and a center island for extra prep space. The main bedroom features a private bathroom with a jetted tub for ultimate relaxation and a convenient walk-in closet. Outside, you'll find a storage shed, a covered patio, and a carport for secure parking. Don't miss out on this one!

Key facts

• Front porch
• Open layout
• Wood cabinetry

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• OPEN LAYOUT
• WOOD CABINETRY
• MOSAIC TILE BACKSPLASH
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• CENTER ISLAND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $54k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $822 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $54k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 24.4% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Deer Valley Unified District (4246) (urban): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #33 of 249 in AZ (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Park Meadows Elementary School (math 47% / reading 51%, grade D, #289 of 1,109 statewide, top 27%, 600 students, 54% FRL); Deer Valley Middle School (math 20% / reading 30%, grade F, #105 of 218 statewide, top 49%, 537 students, 65% FRL); Barry Goldwater High School (math 24% / reading 29%, grade F, #147 of 381 statewide, top 38%, 1,641 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 57% FRL vs 21% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Deer Valley Unified District (4246) average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.8%/yr); 174 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $377 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 159 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $47,960 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 159 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.78% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 64.62%
• DSCR: 3.88
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $58,294
• List price: $54,500
• Delta: -6.51%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2650 W Union Hills Dr #247	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,250 (+4%)	2mo	$62,000	$50	87
2650 W Union Hills Dr #133	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+4%)	4mo	$53,000	$42	85
2650 W Union Hills Dr #257	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+4%)	9mo	$79,000	$63	81
2650 W Union Hills Dr #804	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-4%)	14mo	$41,500	$36	78
2650 W Union Hills Dr #316	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,120 (-7%)	3mo	$80,000	$71	77
2650 W Union Hills Dr #371	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-4%)	22mo	$59,000	$51	70
2650 W Union Hills Dr #169	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-12%)	4mo	$65,000	$62	69
2650 W Union Hills Dr #215	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+12%)	10mo	$37,500	$28	68
2650 W Union Hills Dr #43	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+12%)	4mo	$50,000	$37	68
2650 W Union Hills Dr #230	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,040 (-13%)	13mo	$26,000	$25	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 60.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.56×
• Total profit: $39,083
• Equity at exit: $8,126

10-year hold

• IRR: 64.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.53×
• Total profit: $84,338
• Equity at exit: $4,712

Cash invested: $15,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85027

• Rents YoY: -2.8%
• Active inventory: 174
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,517 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$286
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$68 /mo · $818/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$319
• Net cashflow: $822

Break-even live

Break-even rent $477

Max offer price $54,500

Occupancy floor 41%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $859	-5% $841	+0% $822	+5% $803	+10% $784
Rent	-10% $702	-5% $762	+0% $822	+5% $882	+10% $942
Rate	-1.0pp $849	-0.5pp $836	base $822	+0.5pp $808	+1.0pp $793

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,625
• Closing costs: $1,635
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2929 W Yorkshire Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	915	$1,498	$1.64	20d	2	0.43mi
18250 N 25th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	992	$1,729	$1.74	0d	18	0.46mi
3010 W Yorkshire Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	975	$1,444	$1.48	3d	80	0.56mi
18001 N 29th Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,800	$1.20	45d	1	0.56mi
17840 N Black Canyon Hwy Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	880	$1,655	$1.88	4d	19	0.58mi
2039 W Union Hills Dr Unit 15-001 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,345	$1.22	16d	1	0.78mi
2039 W Union Hills Dr Unit 39-117 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	9d	1	0.78mi
2039 W Union Hills Dr Unit 15-204 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,245	$1.25	16d	1	0.78mi
2039 W Union Hills Dr Unit 39-143 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,345	$1.22	9d	1	0.78mi
3144 W Charleston Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1085	$1,845	$1.70	18d	1	0.79mi
2020 W Union Hills Dr #254 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1049	$1,650	$1.57	45d	1	0.82mi
19940 N 23rd Ave Phoenix, AZ	4.0	1.0–2.0	812	$1,366	$1.68	0d	63	0.85mi
3411 W Morrow Dr #3 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.5	1056	$1,495	$1.42	45d	1	0.85mi
20003 N 23rd Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	860	$1,440	$1.67	25d	1	0.96mi
20003 N 23rd Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	860	$1,522	$1.77	45d	1	0.96mi
3338 W Tonto Ln Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	1206	$1,375	$1.14	9d	1	1.01mi
18435 N 36th Ave Glendale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1386	$2,400	$1.73	45d	1	1.09mi
2222 W Beardsley Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	616	$1,285	$2.09	0d	30	1.11mi
18811 N 19th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	885	$1,400	$1.58	0d	3	1.12mi
18811 N 19th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	885	$1,525	$1.72	3d	2	1.12mi
20245 N 32nd Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	834	$1,530	$1.83	0d	11	1.13mi
20231 N 21st Ln Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	770	$995	$1.29	25d	1	1.16mi
20227 N 21st Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.5	1280	$1,500	$1.17	45d	1	1.18mi
20808 N 27th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	962	$1,560	$1.62	0d	15	1.19mi
3202 W Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	719	$1,299	$1.81	0d	32	1.21mi
17216 N 33rd Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	741	$1,525	$2.06	0d	21	1.25mi
2109 W Danbury Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	1.5	1175	$1,695	$1.44	45d	1	1.29mi
3420 W Danbury Dr Unit C113 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	896	$1,485	$1.66	0d	1	1.31mi
17609 N 19th Ave Unit 204 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	935	$1,199	$1.28	45d	1	1.32mi
3420 W Danbury Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	810	$1,485	$1.83	14d	2	1.32mi
3420 W Danbury Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	810	$1,485	$1.83	25d	2	1.32mi
17609 N 19th Ave Apt 107 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	935	$1,325	$1.42	4d	1	1.33mi
20601 N 33rd Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1085	$2,100	$1.94	25d	1	1.33mi
3434 W Danbury Dr Unit A114 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	896	$1,485	$1.66	25d	1	1.33mi
17609 N 19th Ave Unit 209 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	935	$1,099	$1.18	25d	1	1.34mi
17211 N 35th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	827	$1,500	$1.81	20d	2	1.34mi
17402 N 19th Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1194	$1,450	$1.21	3d	2	1.34mi
17211 N 35th Ave Unit A213 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	758	$1,495	$1.97	45d	1	1.37mi
16623 N 29th Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1430	$2,050	$1.43	0d	1	1.38mi
17211 N 35th Ave Unit C110 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1126	$1,895	$1.68	45d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-07
   price $54,500 622-char remark

   Show marketing remark (622 chars)

   Home, sweet home! This lovely 2-bedroom mobile home greets you with a welcoming front porch perfect for enjoying morning coffee. You'll be delighted by the appealing open layout with a soothing palette, blinds, and stylish wood-look flooring. The kitchen comes with abundant wood cabinetry, a mosaic tile backsplash, stainless steel appliances, and a center island for extra prep space. The main bedroom features a private bathroom with a jetted tub for ultimate relaxation and a convenient walk-in closet. Outside, you'll find a storage shed, a covered patio, and a carport for secure parking. Don't miss out on this one!

2. 2026-03-09
   price $58,500 622-char remark

   Show marketing remark (622 chars)

   Home, sweet home! This lovely 2-bedroom mobile home greets you with a welcoming front porch perfect for enjoying morning coffee. You'll be delighted by the appealing open layout with a soothing palette, blinds, and stylish wood-look flooring. The kitchen comes with abundant wood cabinetry, a mosaic tile backsplash, stainless steel appliances, and a center island for extra prep space. The main bedroom features a private bathroom with a jetted tub for ultimate relaxation and a convenient walk-in closet. Outside, you'll find a storage shed, a covered patio, and a carport for secure parking. Don't miss out on this one!

3. 2026-02-09
   price $64,500 622-char remark

   Show marketing remark (622 chars)

   Home, sweet home! This lovely 2-bedroom mobile home greets you with a welcoming front porch perfect for enjoying morning coffee. You'll be delighted by the appealing open layout with a soothing palette, blinds, and stylish wood-look flooring. The kitchen comes with abundant wood cabinetry, a mosaic tile backsplash, stainless steel appliances, and a center island for extra prep space. The main bedroom features a private bathroom with a jetted tub for ultimate relaxation and a convenient walk-in closet. Outside, you'll find a storage shed, a covered patio, and a carport for secure parking. Don't miss out on this one!

4. 2025-12-18
   listed $69,000 Active 622-char remark

   Show marketing remark (622 chars)

   Home, sweet home! This lovely 2-bedroom mobile home greets you with a welcoming front porch perfect for enjoying morning coffee. You'll be delighted by the appealing open layout with a soothing palette, blinds, and stylish wood-look flooring. The kitchen comes with abundant wood cabinetry, a mosaic tile backsplash, stainless steel appliances, and a center island for extra prep space. The main bedroom features a private bathroom with a jetted tub for ultimate relaxation and a convenient walk-in closet. Outside, you'll find a storage shed, a covered patio, and a carport for secure parking. Don't miss out on this one!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥111°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,203
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,053
• − Property taxes: −$818
• − Insurance: −$272
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,456
• − Management: −$1,456
• − Depreciation: −$1,585
• Taxable income: $9,562
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,295
• After-tax cash flow: $7,566/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained mobile home is move-in ready with good condition and potential for further updates to enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Updating kitchen backsplash — Modernizes kitchen and adds value
• Both Upgrading appliances — Improves functionality and appeal
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Updating kitchen backsplash — Modernizes kitchen and adds value ↑
• Both Upgrading appliances — Improves functionality and appeal ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Deer Valley Unified District (4246)
• NCES district ID: 0407750
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $72,516
• Composite: 47.0/100
• National rank: #2346
• State rank: #33 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 39,487
• Household income: $76,605
• Rent vs Own: 43.5% rent · 56.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1533.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 13% Asian 7% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 4% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -248.58%
• Current HPI: 356.8851
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.75%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-21.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $54,500 ARMLS
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $58,500 ARMLS
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $64,500 ARMLS
• 2025-12-18 Listed $69,000 ARMLS