401 Conley Hill Rd · Jonesville, VA 24263

$110,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1995 0.50 ac lot $56/sqft · 7% below area Est $118k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.3/30.0
• ARV discount +10.6/15.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• Appreciation +8.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity meets mountain views at 401 Conley Hill Rd in Jonesville, VA! This spacious 4-bedroom, 2 full bath doublewide on a permanent foundation offers the flexibility of an optional 5th bedroom--perfect for a growing family, home office, or guest space. Situated at the dead end of the street, you'll enjoy added privacy and peaceful surroundings with amazing mountain views right outside your door. Currently used as a long-term rental property, this home presents a fantastic investment opportunity with income potential, or it could easily become your next personal residence. Whether you're searching for a smart addition to your portfolio or a place to call home, this property offers space, scenery, and potential all in one package!

Key facts

• Added privacy
• Income potential
• Mountain views

Tags

• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• ADDED PRIVACY
• PEACEFUL SURROUNDINGS
• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
• INCOME POTENTIAL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $284 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $107k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#397 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, schools B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Lee County Public School District (rural): math 53% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #62 of 131 in VA (top 47%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 18 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($761 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (7.0% local appreciation)).
• Lee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (7.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($107k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $29k; list at $110k implies a 279% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $106,700 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.06%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $118,147
• List price: $110,000
• Delta: -6.90%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

6.95% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.82×
• Total profit: $56,149
• Equity at exit: $75,896

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.86×
• Total profit: $149,643
• Equity at exit: $143,870

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24263

• Home prices YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 51
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,216 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $651/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$255
• Net cashflow: $284

Break-even live

Break-even rent $857

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $346	-5% $315	+0% $284	+5% $253	+10% $222
Rent	-10% $188	-5% $236	+0% $284	+5% $332	+10% $380
Rate	-1.0pp $339	-0.5pp $312	base $284	+0.5pp $255	+1.0pp $226

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $110,000 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $110,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $110,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $110,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $115,000 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $115,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $115,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $115,000 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 20 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 19 DOM
17. 2026-05-15
    status Active 745-char remark

    Show marketing remark (745 chars)

    Opportunity meets mountain views at 401 Conley Hill Rd in Jonesville, VA! This spacious 4-bedroom, 2 full bath doublewide on a permanent foundation offers the flexibility of an optional 5th bedroom--perfect for a growing family, home office, or guest space. Situated at the dead end of the street, you'll enjoy added privacy and peaceful surroundings with amazing mountain views right outside your door. Currently used as a long-term rental property, this home presents a fantastic investment opportunity with income potential, or it could easily become your next personal residence. Whether you're searching for a smart addition to your portfolio or a place to call home, this property offers space, scenery, and potential all in one package!

18. 2026-04-23
    status Pending 745-char remark

    Show marketing remark (745 chars)

    Opportunity meets mountain views at 401 Conley Hill Rd in Jonesville, VA! This spacious 4-bedroom, 2 full bath doublewide on a permanent foundation offers the flexibility of an optional 5th bedroom--perfect for a growing family, home office, or guest space. Situated at the dead end of the street, you'll enjoy added privacy and peaceful surroundings with amazing mountain views right outside your door. Currently used as a long-term rental property, this home presents a fantastic investment opportunity with income potential, or it could easily become your next personal residence. Whether you're searching for a smart addition to your portfolio or a place to call home, this property offers space, scenery, and potential all in one package!

19. 2026-04-19
    listed $115,000 Active 745-char remark

    Show marketing remark (745 chars)

    Opportunity meets mountain views at 401 Conley Hill Rd in Jonesville, VA! This spacious 4-bedroom, 2 full bath doublewide on a permanent foundation offers the flexibility of an optional 5th bedroom--perfect for a growing family, home office, or guest space. Situated at the dead end of the street, you'll enjoy added privacy and peaceful surroundings with amazing mountain views right outside your door. Currently used as a long-term rental property, this home presents a fantastic investment opportunity with income potential, or it could easily become your next personal residence. Whether you're searching for a smart addition to your portfolio or a place to call home, this property offers space, scenery, and potential all in one package!

20. 2004-10-18
    soldstatus $29,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $651 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $902 · $75/mo
• Expected delta: +$251/yr (+$21/mo · 38.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,595
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$651
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,168
• − Management: −$1,168
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $1,697
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$407
• After-tax cash flow: $2,999/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102190
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -31.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $31,356
• Composite: 50.06/100
• National rank: #1913
• State rank: #62 of 131 in VA

Livability — Jonesville

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #397
• US rank: #16359

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing F Health & safety C+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,661

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,861 people
• By 2030: 21,701 · -5.1%
• By 2040: 19,188 · -16.1%
• By 2050: 16,619 · -27.3%
• By 2075: 11,795 · -48.4%
• By 2100: 8,290 · -63.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 2%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+72.0) · D 13.8% · R 85.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -43.8pp toward R · 2008: -28.2pp · 2024: -72.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+72.0 2020: R+69.1 2016: R+63.2 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+28.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.95%
• Current HPI: 218.0947
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+296.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Relisted — Knoxville MLS
• 2026-04-23 Pending — Knoxville MLS
• 2026-04-19 Listed $115,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2004-10-18 Sold (Public Records) $29,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $651 · +33.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.