28 Lake Vista Trl #105 · River Park, FL 34952

$85,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · Condo public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1984 $449/mo HOA · 29% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.5/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Clean and ready to move in Vista condo. Tile floors, berber carpet, screened front door and glassed porch. Priced for quick sale. 1st floor and near clubhouse.

Key facts

• Great location
• Active 55+ community
• Close to dining

Tags

• GREAT LOCATION
• ACTIVE 55+ COMMUNITY
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• CLOSE TO DINING
• CLOSE TO BEACHES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Senior community
• Financial info: Not a land lease community; Pets not allowed
• HOA & community: Community has an association; Monthly HOA includes cable TV, insurance, grounds maintenance, sewer, trash, water, and common areas; Association amenities: clubhouse, pool, billiard room, tennis courts, bocce ball, pickleball courts, library, internet included; Monthly HOA fee

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected (Three phase)
• Home design: Condominium; Single-story; Entry level: 1; Faces south; Resale condition
• Construction: Block/Concrete/CBS construction; Shingle roof; Built with public-records building area
• Exterior features: Screened porch; Porch; Glass-enclosed porch; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: One bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Linoleum
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: No interior specialty features reported; Unfurnished unit
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in common area on the main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $143 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 6.3% in River Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#451 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, employment F.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 639 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $85k implies a 183% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 29% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $82,450 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.80% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.23%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-5,964
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $1,263
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34952

• Home prices YoY: -29.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 639
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,526 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$132 /mo · $1,581/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$449
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$320
• Net cashflow: $143

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,344

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
28 Lake Vista Trl #205 Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0	1.5	800	$1,600	$2.00	23d	1	0.03mi
30 Lake Vista Trl #205 Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0	1.5	800	$1,300	$1.62	23d	1	0.06mi
11 Lake Vista Trl #206 Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1080	$1,400	$1.30	23d	1	0.08mi
8 Lake Vista Trl #205 Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0	1.5	800	$1,500	$1.88	23d	1	0.13mi
13 Lake Vista Trl #205 Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0	1.5	800	$1,375	$1.72	23d	1	0.15mi
4 Lake Vista Trl #202 Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1080	$1,700	$1.57	21d	1	0.22mi
7700 Pine Lakes Blvd Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1022	$1,543	$1.51	13d	16	0.39mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $449 · $5,388/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $85,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $85,000 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $85,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $85,000 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $85,000 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 20 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $85,000 Active 19 DOM
17. 2026-05-08
    listed $85,000 Active
18. 2026-04-27
    historical
19. 2025-10-31
    listed $94,900 Active
20. 2010-02-12
    soldstatus $30,000 159-char remark

    Show marketing remark (159 chars)

    Clean and ready to move in Vista condo. Tile floors, berber carpet, screened front door and glassed porch. Priced for quick sale. 1st floor and near clubhouse.

21. 2010-01-11
    historical 159-char remark

    Show marketing remark (159 chars)

    Clean and ready to move in Vista condo. Tile floors, berber carpet, screened front door and glassed porch. Priced for quick sale. 1st floor and near clubhouse.

22. 2009-04-20
    listed $35,900 159-char remark

    Show marketing remark (159 chars)

    Clean and ready to move in Vista condo. Tile floors, berber carpet, screened front door and glassed porch. Priced for quick sale. 1st floor and near clubhouse.

23. 2003-03-24
    soldstatus $62,000
24. 2003-02-28
    soldstatus $62,000
25. 2003-01-30
    historical
26. 2003-01-29
    listed $62,000
27. 2002-02-08
    soldstatus $27,000
28. 2002-02-07
    soldstatus $27,000
29. 2002-01-09
    historical
30. 2001-12-19
    listed $29,900
31. 1984-05-01
    soldstatus $40,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,581 · $132/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,581 · $132/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,309
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,581
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,465
• − Management: −$1,465
• − HOA: −$5,388
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $752
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$180
• After-tax cash flow: $1,541/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Lucie
• NCES district ID: 1201770
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,737
• Composite: 37.28/100
• National rank: #4449
• State rank: #51 of 73 in FL

Livability — River Park

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #451
• US rank: #8159

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Lucie County · 337,150 people
• City population: 221,051
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,655
• Household income: $61,628
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1759.0

Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 338,016 people
• By 2030: 355,687 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 385,521 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 406,106 · +20.1%
• By 2075: 441,054 · +30.5%
• By 2100: 436,885 · +29.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 14% Black 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -155.80%
• Current HPI: 371.0573
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.92%
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+107.8% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Listed $85,000 Beaches MLS
• 2026-04-27 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2025-10-31 Listed $94,900 Beaches MLS
• 2010-02-12 Sold (MLS) $30,000 Beaches MLS
• 2010-01-11 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2009-04-20 Listed $35,900 Beaches MLS
• 2003-03-24 Sold (Public Records) $62,000 Public Records
• 2003-02-28 Sold (MLS) $62,000 Beaches MLS
• 2003-01-30 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2003-01-29 Listed $62,000 Beaches MLS
• 2002-02-08 Sold (Public Records) $27,000 Public Records
• 2002-02-07 Sold (MLS) $27,000 Beaches MLS
• 2002-01-09 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2001-12-19 Listed $29,900 Beaches MLS
• 1984-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $40,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,581 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.