31007 Gayle Prairie Oak St · Waller, TX 77484

$252,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,912 sqft · Land · 36 Days on market

Built 2026 $63/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Appreciation +2.9/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

As you enter the home, you're greeted by two bedrooms with a shared bath. Continuing down the hall toward the main living area, you'll pass an additional bedroom, a second full bath, the laundry room, and access to the two-car garage. The home then opens into a spacious kitchen, dining area, and family room, with a covered patio just off the family room. On the opposite side of the kitchen, you'll find the primary bedroom featuring a walk-in closet and primary bath.

Key facts

• One story living
• Open concept design
• Large island

Tags

• ONE STORY LIVING
• OPEN CONCEPT DESIGN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• LARGE ISLAND
• SOFT CLOSE CABINETS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Full ownership
• HOA & community: Association managed by Sterling Association Services; Annual association fee of $750

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 spaces)
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Built in 2026; Slab foundation; Composition roof; Built by Starlight Homes
• Construction: Cement siding
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Deck; Patio; Fully fenced backyard; Back yard fence

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Built-in microwave; Garbage disposal; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (approx. 15.5 x 15); Bedroom on first floor (approx. 12 x 11); Bedroom on first floor (approx. 15.5 x 10.5); Bedroom on first floor (approx. 13 x 12); Family room on first floor (approx. 19.5 x 15)
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Granite counters; High ceilings; Kitchen/family room combo; Pantry; Self-closing cabinet doors and drawers; Tub with shower; Programmable thermostat; Low emissivity windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Washer and dryer included

🏗️ New construction. The $252,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $287,915.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $253k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-85 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (14.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (14.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.0% in Waller — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,003 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: I T Holleman El (math 33% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 688 students, 70% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.8%/yr); 1183 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($245k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $217,169 (14.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.26%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $287,915
• List price: $252,990
• Delta: -12.13%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-58,485
• Equity at exit: $42,929

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-82,795
• Equity at exit: $24,894

Cash invested: $80,616 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77484

• Home prices YoY: -1.0%
• Rents YoY: -3.8%
• Active inventory: 1183
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,172 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,510
• Tax from tax record: −$107 /mo · $1,288/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$63
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $-85

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,279

Max offer price $272,986

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,979
• Closing costs: $8,637
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
31406 Gayle Prairie Oaks St Waller, TX	4.0	3.0	2260	$2,450	$1.08	4d	1	0.40mi
17239 King Eider Rd Waller, TX	4.0	2.5	2260	$1,995	$0.88	12d	1	0.82mi
17227 King Eider Rd Waller, TX	5.0	3.0	2439	$2,145	$0.88	24d	1	0.83mi
17119 King Eider Rd Waller, TX	4.0	2.5	1994	$1,900	$0.95	22d	1	0.84mi
17222 King Eider Rd Waller, TX	4.0	2.5	2178	$1,935	$0.89	5d	1	0.86mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $63 · $756/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $252,990 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $252,990 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $252,990 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $252,990 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $252,990 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $252,990 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $252,990 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $252,990 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $252,990 Active 22 DOM

   Show marketing remark (470 chars)

   As you enter the home, you're greeted by two bedrooms with a shared bath. Continuing down the hall toward the main living area, you'll pass an additional bedroom, a second full bath, the laundry room, and access to the two-car garage. The home then opens into a spacious kitchen, dining area, and family room, with a covered patio just off the family room. On the opposite side of the kitchen, you'll find the primary bedroom featuring a walk-in closet and primary bath.

10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $252,990 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $252,990 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $252,990 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $252,990 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-15
    listed $252,990 Active 470-char remark

    Show marketing remark (470 chars)

    As you enter the home, you're greeted by two bedrooms with a shared bath. Continuing down the hall toward the main living area, you'll pass an additional bedroom, a second full bath, the laundry room, and access to the two-car garage. The home then opens into a spacious kitchen, dining area, and family room, with a covered patio just off the family room. On the opposite side of the kitchen, you'll find the primary bedroom featuring a walk-in closet and primary bath.

15. 2026-05-13
    price $252,990 799-char remark
16. 2026-05-13
    listed $287,040 Active 799-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,288 · $107/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,630 · $386/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,342/yr (+$278/mo · 259.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,060
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,128
• − Property taxes: −$1,288
• − Insurance: −$1,440
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,085
• − Management: −$2,085
• − HOA: −$756
• − Depreciation: −$8,376
• Taxable loss: −$6,096
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,463
• After-tax cash flow: $449/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Waller

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1003
• US rank: #17792

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,348
• Household income: $81,250
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 270.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.17%
• Current HPI: 397.85
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Price Changed $257,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-15 Listed $252,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $252,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-13 Listed $287,040 HARMLS