307 S Meadowood Ln · Sierra Vista, AZ 85635

$256,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,585 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 383 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition 4,503 sqft lot $162/sqft · 11% above area Est $231k · 11% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.1/30.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• ARV discount +2.6/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Brand new spec home is ready for new owners! Fabulous 55+ active community with unrivaled amenities in Sierra Vista. Upgraded interior includes 42'' cabinets, upgraded tile, quartz countertops, ADA toilets, 42'' wide hallways, 36'' doors to all rooms. Property taxes and trash pickup are included in the resort fee as well as the road maintenance. Lots of activities and classes, potluck dinners, bingo, billiards, ping-pong, card games at the card house, pickleball, yoga, swimming and hot tubbing. Movie room complete with popcorn maker. You're going to love this place! Roof is torch-down.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Ada toilets
• Unrivaled amenities

Tags

• UNRIVALED AMENITIES
• UPGRADED INTERIOR
• 42 CABINETS
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• ADA TOILETS
• 42 WIDE HALLWAYS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $256k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $180 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (11.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.2% in Sierra Vista — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#5 in AZ, #1,805 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F.
• Sierra Vista Unified District (4175) (urban): math 27% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #93 of 249 in AZ (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Village Meadows Elementary School (math 37% / reading 41%, grade F, #415 of 1,109 statewide, top 38%, 394 students, 56% FRL); Joyce Clark Middle School (math 26% / reading 39%, grade F, #70 of 218 statewide, top 32%, 670 students, 46% FRL); Buena High School (math 19% / reading 29%, grade F, #202 of 381 statewide, top 54%, 1,836 students, 32% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 181 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 437 units permitted in Cochise County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cochise County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 383 days — a 12% lower offer ($225k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $225,280 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 383 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.01%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $231,087
• List price: $256,000
• Delta: 10.78%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
426 S Taylors Trl	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,585 (0%)	4mo	$130,000	$82	89
258 S Taylors Trl	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,597 (+1%)	4mo	$219,000	$137	88
559 S Meadowood Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,589 (+0%)	6mo	$239,900	$151	87
652 S Taylors Trl	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,588 (+0%)	2mo	$256,000	$161	86
606 S Chase St	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,587 (+0%)	6mo	$271,961	$171	86
760 S Chase St	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,588 (+0%)	3mo	$265,000	$167	84
232 S Clubhouse Ln	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,494 (-6%)	2mo	$190,000	$127	83
301 S Clubhouse Ln	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,474 (-7%)	6mo	$217,000	$147	72
545 S Meadowood Ln	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,476 (-7%)	7mo	$200,000	$136	71
434 S Meadowood Ln	0.08mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,408 (-11%)	4mo	$182,500	$130	70
231 S Clubhouse Ln	0.14mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,404 (-11%)	3mo	$200,000	$142	67
216 N Martha Ln	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,453 (-8%)	7mo	$180,000	$124	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-36,723
• Equity at exit: $38,170

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-43,115
• Equity at exit: $22,134

Cash invested: $71,680 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85635

• Home prices YoY: -32.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.0%
• Active inventory: 181
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,262 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,342
• Tax from tax record: −$158 /mo · $1,897/yr
• Insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$475
• Net cashflow: $180

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,034

Max offer price $256,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $325	-5% $252	+0% $180	+5% $107	+10% $35
Rent	-10% $1	-5% $90	+0% $180	+5% $269	+10% $359
Rate	-1.0pp $309	-0.5pp $245	base $180	+0.5pp $114	+1.0pp $46

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,000
• Closing costs: $7,680
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
526 S Clubhouse Ln Sierra Vista, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1574	$2,750	$1.75	45d	3	0.06mi
5396 Desert Shadows Dr Sierra Vista, AZ	4.0	2.0	1365	$1,550	$1.14	45d	1	1.05mi
5478 Waco Dr Sierra Vista, AZ	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,600	$1.07	45d	1	1.10mi
5330 Sonora St Sierra Vista, AZ	3.0	2.0	1330	$1,425	$1.07	45d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $256,000 Active 383 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $256,000 Active 382 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $256,000 Active 380 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $256,000 Active 379 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $256,000 Active 378 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $256,000 Active 377 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $256,000 Active 376 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $256,000 Active 374 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $256,000 Active 373 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $256,000 Active 370 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $256,000 Active 369 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $256,000 Active 368 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $256,000 Active 365 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $256,000 Active 364 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $256,000 Active 363 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $256,000 Active 362 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $256,000 Active 361 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $256,000 Active 360 DOM
19. 2025-06-04
    listed $256,000 Active 598-char remark

    Show marketing remark (598 chars)

    Brand new spec home is ready for new owners! Fabulous 55+ active community with unrivaled amenities in Sierra Vista. Upgraded interior includes 42'' cabinets, upgraded tile, quartz countertops, ADA toilets, 42'' wide hallways, 36'' doors to all rooms. Property taxes and trash pickup are included in the resort fee as well as the road maintenance. Lots of activities and classes, potluck dinners, bingo, billiards, ping-pong, card games at the card house, pickleball, yoga, swimming and hot tubbing. Movie room complete with popcorn maker. You're going to love this place! Roof is torch-down.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,897 · $158/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,897 · $158/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,146
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,340
• − Property taxes: −$1,897
• − Insurance: −$1,280
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,172
• − Management: −$2,172
• − Depreciation: −$7,447
• Taxable loss: −$2,162
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$519
• After-tax cash flow: $2,677/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This brand new spec home in a 55+ community is move-in ready with modern finishes and amenities. Fresh paint and smart home upgrades would further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Install smart home devices — Improves convenience and energy efficiency
• Both Add outdoor lighting — Enhances safety and curb appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Improves convenience and energy efficiency ↑
• Both Add outdoor lighting — Enhances safety and curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sierra Vista Unified District (4175)
• NCES district ID: 0401460
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $55,463
• Composite: 29.17/100
• National rank: #6573
• State rank: #93 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Sierra Vista

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #5
• US rank: #1805

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Cochise County · 49,069 people
• City population: 49,069
• Metro: Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 34,193
• Household income: $61,580
• Rent vs Own: 38.4% rent · 61.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1129.0

Population outlook (Cochise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 113,402 people
• By 2030: 106,197 · -6.4%
• By 2040: 92,166 · -18.7%
• By 2050: 79,805 · -29.6%
• By 2075: 56,831 · -49.9%
• By 2100: 35,103 · -69.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 17% Black 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 14% Korean 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cochise

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 37.8% · R 61.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: -20.7pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+19.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+24.0 2008: R+20.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.93%
• Current HPI: 175.5821
• Rent YoY: ▬ 0.00%
• Metro: Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-06-04 Listed $256,000 ARMLS