25964 Thatcham · Roman Forest, TX 77357

$129,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · Manufactured public records · 26 Days on market

Built 2001 0.47 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Sec 2 has been undergoing updating of roads. This wooded area adjacent to Roman Forest is approx 5 miles from location of a major amusement and entertainment center to be built as announced in the media. Manufactured homes allowed with POA approval in Section 2.

Key facts

• Spacious backyard
• 0.47 acre lot
• Built 2001

Tags

• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• ZONED FOR NEW CANEY ISD
• PROXIMITY TO GRAND PARKWAY 99

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Septic system
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2001
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Block foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 13 x 11); Two additional first-floor bedrooms (approx. 13 x 9 and 13 x 10)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Three total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $224 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $128k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.3% vs local median 5.0% in Roman Forest — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#595 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• New Caney ISD (suburban): math 31% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #570 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Keefer Crossing Middle (math 35% / reading 31%, grade F, #930 of 1,662 statewide, top 57%, 1,213 students, 81% FRL); New Caney H S (math 24% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,183 of 1,632 statewide, top 73%, 2,428 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 57% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 979 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,951 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.47%
• DSCR: 1.96
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-11,594
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-10,368
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77357

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 979
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,851 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$76 /mo · $912/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$389
• Net cashflow: $224

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,567

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $298	-5% $261	+0% $224	+5% $187	+10% $151
Rent	-10% $78	-5% $151	+0% $224	+5% $297	+10% $370
Rate	-1.0pp $290	-0.5pp $257	base $224	+0.5pp $190	+1.0pp $156

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 25 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 24 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 23 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $129,900 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $144,900 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $144,900 Active 16 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $144,900 Active 15 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $144,900 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $144,900 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $144,900 Active 10 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $144,900 Active 9 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $144,900 Active 8 DOM
14. 2026-05-23
    listed $144,900 Active
15. 2026-03-05
    historical
16. 2025-12-01
    status Active
17. 2025-11-30
    historical
18. 2025-07-16
    listed $155,500 Active
19. 2017-12-04
    soldstatus
20. 2011-04-01
    soldstatus 262-char remark

    Show marketing remark (262 chars)

    Sec 2 has been undergoing updating of roads. This wooded area adjacent to Roman Forest is approx 5 miles from location of a major amusement and entertainment center to be built as announced in the media. Manufactured homes allowed with POA approval in Section 2.

21. 2011-03-12
    historical 262-char remark

    Show marketing remark (262 chars)

    Sec 2 has been undergoing updating of roads. This wooded area adjacent to Roman Forest is approx 5 miles from location of a major amusement and entertainment center to be built as announced in the media. Manufactured homes allowed with POA approval in Section 2.

22. 2010-12-13
    listed $7,000 262-char remark

    Show marketing remark (262 chars)

    Sec 2 has been undergoing updating of roads. This wooded area adjacent to Roman Forest is approx 5 miles from location of a major amusement and entertainment center to be built as announced in the media. Manufactured homes allowed with POA approval in Section 2.

23. 2010-12-09
    historical
24. 2008-12-19
    listed $7,000
25. 2008-12-13
    historical
26. 2007-06-08
    listed $7,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $912 · $76/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,377 · $198/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,465/yr (+$122/mo · 160.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,207
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$912
• − Insurance: −$5,768
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,777
• − Management: −$1,777
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $919
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$220
• After-tax cash flow: $2,469/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Caney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832400
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $55,380
• Composite: 27.97/100
• National rank: #6857
• State rank: #570 of 826 in TX

Livability — Roman Forest

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #595
• US rank: #11338

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 37,592
• Household income: $76,050
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 487.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 45% Two or more races 31% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.71%
• Current HPI: 266.8315
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1970.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Listed $144,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-12-01 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-11-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-16 Listed $155,500 HARMLS
• 2017-12-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-04-01 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2011-03-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2010-12-13 Listed $7,000 HARMLS
• 2010-12-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2008-12-19 Listed $7,000 HARMLS
• 2008-12-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2007-06-08 Listed $7,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+26.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $912 · +51.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.