Groves Plan · Richmond, TX 77406

$344,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,697 sqft · SingleFamily · 245 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Groves floor plan offers the perfect blend of style and functionality in a thoughtfully designed one-story layout. Featuring four bedrooms and two bathrooms, this home provides ample space for families of all sizes. The two-car garage ensures plenty of storage, while the open-concept living area creates a seamless flow between the kitchen, dining, and gathering spaces. The owner's suite is a private retreat with a spacious bathroom, while the additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guest accommodations or a home office. Designed for modern living, the Groves floor plan delivers both comfort and convenience in a beautifully crafted home.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 245 days

🏗️ New construction. The $344,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $388,138.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $345k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-712 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $285k (17.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $249k (27.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $249k (27.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 2.8% in Richmond — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#363 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Joe Hubenak El (math 57% / reading 61%, grade B-, #455 of 4,322 statewide, top 11%, 1,214 students, 37% FRL); Briscoe J H (math 59% / reading 60%, grade B, #166 of 1,662 statewide, top 11%, 1,914 students, 38% FRL); Foster H S (math 64% / reading 74%, grade B, #141 of 1,632 statewide, top 9%, 2,388 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1487 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 245 days — a 12% lower offer ($304k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $249,401 (27.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 245 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.86%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 13.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $388,138
• List price: $344,990
• Delta: -11.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10714 Maia Mills Ct	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,762 (+4%)	1mo	$350,000	$199	82
10711 Ashlesha Ln	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,792 (+6%)	0mo	$335,000	$187	79
26722 Hypatia Trce	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,632 (-4%)	1mo	$299,900	$184	78
10414 Starfire Yellow Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,755 (+3%)	1mo	$379,990	$217	72
10418 Starfire Yellow Dr	0.34mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,743 (+3%)	2mo	$359,900	$206	71
10818 Cassiopeia Creek Cir	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,896 (+12%)	2mo	$360,000	$190	66
26831 Concord Dawn Dr	0.46mi	4/3.0	1,785 (+5%)	1mo	$374,900	$210	66
10422 Starfire Yellow Dr	0.33mi	4/3.0	1,878 (+11%)	1mo	$379,900	$202	62
11023 Overland Trail Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,672 (-2%)	1mo	$285,000	$170	61
10430 Starfire Yellow Dr	0.33mi	4/2.5	1,927 (+14%)	1mo	$399,990	$208	59
26711 Concord Dawn Dr	0.37mi	4/3.0	1,927 (+14%)	2mo	$345,000	$179	55
11331 Elizabeth Brook Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,938 (+14%)	1mo	$304,900	$157	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-115,518
• Equity at exit: $57,873

10-year hold

• IRR: -63.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.72×
• Total profit: $-187,082
• Equity at exit: $33,559

Cash invested: $108,679 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 45 active · 28 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.7 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $360,000 ($201/sqft)
• Median days on market: 62 d
• This list price: 42% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +13.7% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77406

• Home prices YoY: -26.2%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1487
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,494 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,035
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$485 /mo · $5,822/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$524
• Net cashflow: $-712

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,395

Max offer price $285,101

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-444	-5% $-578	+0% $-712	+5% $-846	+10% $-980
Rent	-10% $-909	-5% $-811	+0% $-712	+5% $-614	+10% $-515
Rate	-1.0pp $-517	-0.5pp $-613	base $-712	+0.5pp $-813	+1.0pp $-915

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,034
• Closing costs: $11,644
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
26831 Chandrila Vista CT Richmond, TX	3.0	2.0	1740	$2,300	$1.32	12d	1	0.01mi
25810 Palmdale Estate Dr Richmond, TX	4.0	2.0	2008	$2,350	$1.17	93d	1	0.89mi
26719 Henson Falls Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1315	$1,950	$1.48	93d	1	1.23mi
6411 Tea Tree Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2168	$6,325	$2.92	4d	1	1.39mi
6411 Tea Tree Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2168	$6,900	$3.18	93d	1	1.39mi
26439 Richwood Oaks Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1756	$2,050	$1.17	93d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-07-14
   days on market $344,990 Active 245 DOM
2. 2026-07-13
   days on market $344,990 Active 244 DOM
3. 2026-07-13
   days on market $344,990 Active 243 DOM
4. 2026-07-11
   days on market $344,990 Active 242 DOM
5. 2026-07-10
   days on market $344,990 Active 241 DOM
6. 2026-07-09
   days on market $344,990 Active 240 DOM
7. 2026-07-07
   days on market $344,990 Active 238 DOM
8. 2026-07-06
   days on market $344,990 Active 237 DOM
9. 2026-07-06
   days on market $344,990 Active 236 DOM
10. 2026-07-05
    days on market $344,990 Active 235 DOM
11. 2026-07-03
    days on market $344,990 Active 234 DOM
12. 2026-07-02
    days on market $344,990 Active 233 DOM
13. 2026-07-01
    days on market $344,990 Active 232 DOM
14. 2026-06-30
    days on market $344,990 Active 231 DOM
15. 2026-06-29
    days on market $344,990 Active 230 DOM
16. 2026-06-28
    days on market $344,990 Active 229 DOM
17. 2026-06-27
    days on market $344,990 Active 228 DOM
18. 2026-06-26
    days on market $344,990 Active 227 DOM
19. 2026-06-24
    days on market $344,990 Active 225 DOM
20. 2026-06-22
    days on market $344,990 Active 223 DOM
21. 2026-06-21
    days on market $344,990 Active 222 DOM
22. 2026-06-18
    days on market $344,990 Active 219 DOM
23. 2026-06-17
    days on market $344,990 Active 218 DOM
24. 2026-06-16
    days on market $344,990 Active 217 DOM
25. 2026-06-15
    days on market $344,990 Active 216 DOM
26. 2026-06-13
    days on market $344,990 Active 214 DOM
27. 2026-06-10
    days on market $344,990 Active 210 DOM
28. 2026-06-08
    days on market $344,990 Active 209 DOM
29. 2026-06-07
    days on market $344,990 Active 208 DOM
30. 2026-06-04
    days on market $344,990 Active 205 DOM
31. 2026-06-03
    days on market $344,990 Active 204 DOM
32. 2026-06-02
    days on market $344,990 Active 203 DOM
33. 2026-06-01
    days on market $344,990 Active 202 DOM
34. 2026-05-31
    days on market $344,990 Active 201 DOM
35. 2026-02-18
    price $344,990 650-char remark

    Show marketing remark (650 chars)

    The Groves floor plan offers the perfect blend of style and functionality in a thoughtfully designed one-story layout. Featuring four bedrooms and two bathrooms, this home provides ample space for families of all sizes. The two-car garage ensures plenty of storage, while the open-concept living area creates a seamless flow between the kitchen, dining, and gathering spaces. The owner's suite is a private retreat with a spacious bathroom, while the additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guest accommodations or a home office. Designed for modern living, the Groves floor plan delivers both comfort and convenience in a beautifully crafted home.

36. 2025-11-11
    listed $379,990 Active 650-char remark

    Show marketing remark (650 chars)

    The Groves floor plan offers the perfect blend of style and functionality in a thoughtfully designed one-story layout. Featuring four bedrooms and two bathrooms, this home provides ample space for families of all sizes. The two-car garage ensures plenty of storage, while the open-concept living area creates a seamless flow between the kitchen, dining, and gathering spaces. The owner's suite is a private retreat with a spacious bathroom, while the additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guest accommodations or a home office. Designed for modern living, the Groves floor plan delivers both comfort and convenience in a beautifully crafted home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,928
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,742
• − Property taxes: −$5,822
• − Insurance: −$1,941
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,394
• − Management: −$2,394
• − Depreciation: −$11,291
• Taxable loss: −$15,656
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,757
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,787/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-family home in Houston, TX, is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good ROI with updates focusing on curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New lighting fixtures — Enhances interior aesthetics and functionality ↑

C Composite school gradezoned avg 64/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Joe Hubenak El B- TX #455/4,322 Nat'l #8,048/41,679 High Foster H S B TX #141/1,632 Nat'l #2,354/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Richmond

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #363
• US rank: #7780

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend County · 1,004,526 people
• City population: 158,237
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,918
• Household income: $141,869
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 4% of renters

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Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 15% Black 14% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 3% Vietnamese 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.18%
• Current HPI: 222.9525
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.61%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $344,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-11 Listed $379,990 Zillow