1641 Lincoln St · Brownsville, TX 78521

$155,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,872 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 435 Days on market

Built 1966 5,000 sqft lot $83/sqft · 52% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

TWO STORY HOME NEAR EXPRESSWAY & INTERNATIONAL BLVD. HOME IS SOLD AS IS.

Key facts

• Near expressway
• Two story home
• 5,000 sq ft lot

Tags

• TWO STORY HOME
• NEAR EXPRESSWAY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $608 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 5.0% in Brownsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#62 in TX, #2,311 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities D, crime D-.
• Brownsville ISD (urban): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #710 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 365 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,050/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($45k/yr) (locally 2682% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 435 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 435 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.81%
• DSCR: 1.75
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $101,906
• List price: $155,000
• Delta: 52.10%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2030 Johnson St	0.49mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,603 (-14%)	21mo	$129,900	$81	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $24,441
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.77×
• Total profit: $120,432
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78521

• Home prices YoY: -26.0%
• Rents YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 365
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,050 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$134 /mo · $1,604/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $608

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,280

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $696	-5% $652	+0% $608	+5% $564	+10% $520
Rent	-10% $446	-5% $527	+0% $608	+5% $689	+10% $770
Rate	-1.0pp $686	-0.5pp $648	base $608	+0.5pp $568	+1.0pp $527

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
515 Mc Davitt Blvd Brownsville, TX	4.0	2.0	1272	$1,300	$1.02	44d	1	0.81mi
205 Ebony Ave Brownsville, TX	4.0	3.0	2400	$2,000	$0.83	22d	1	0.82mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 435 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Active 434 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Active 433 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 432 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $155,000 Active 430 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,000 Active 429 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $155,000 Active 427 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $155,000 Active 426 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $155,000 Active 425 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $155,000 Active 424 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $155,000 Active 421 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $155,000 Active 420 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $155,000 Active 419 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,000 Active 418 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 417 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $155,000 Active 416 DOM
17. 2025-04-09
    listed $155,000 Active 78-char remark

    Show marketing remark (78 chars)

    TWO STORY HOME NEAR EXPRESSWAY & INTERNATIONAL BLVD. HOME IS SOLD AS IS.

18. 2021-10-27
    soldstatus
19. 2015-08-28
    soldstatus
20. 2015-08-28
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,604 · $134/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,836 · $236/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,232/yr (+$103/mo · 76.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,596
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$1,604
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,968
• − Management: −$1,968
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable income: $5,090
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,222
• After-tax cash flow: $6,076/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brownsville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811680
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $30,490
• Composite: 21.8/100
• National rank: #8249
• State rank: #710 of 826 in TX

Livability — Brownsville

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #62
• US rank: #2311

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Brownsville, TX
• County: Cameron County · 310,734 people
• City population: 212,132
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• Population (ZIP): 87,380
• Household income: $44,509
• Rent vs Own: 39.7% rent · 60.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2682.0

Population outlook (Cameron County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 441,603 people
• By 2030: 448,113 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 456,385 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 456,294 · +3.3%
• By 2075: 423,851 · -4.0%
• By 2100: 342,787 · -22.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 97% Two or more races 45% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 91%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada
• Languages at home: 12% English-only · Spanish 88%

Political lean MEDSL · Cameron

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.8) · D 46.7% · R 52.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.6pp toward R · 2008: 28.8pp · 2024: -5.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.8 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+32.5 2012: D+32.4 2008: D+28.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.45%
• Current HPI: 232.1072
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.19%
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-04-09 Listed $155,000 RGVMLS
• 2021-10-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-08-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-08-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,604 · -8.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.