1030 Kingsriver Dr · Granite Shoals, TX 78654

$235,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,594 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 348 Days on market

Built 1954 0.27 ac lot Est $401k · 41% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

CALLING ALL INVESTORS! 2 HOMES FOR THE PRICE OF ONE! The main house is 1,594 SQFT and features 2 bedrooms, 2 updated bathrooms, sun room, office, plus a large living area. The second home is 680 SQFT and features 1 bedroom and 1 full bathroom. The smaller home has been recently renovated on the inside. The laundry room for the main house is located just off of the dining area, and the laundry room for the second home is inside the carport. There is a fenced in yard area for the main house plus a large storage area. Both homes sit on a large corner lot & have their own private entrance. Both homes have been recently rented for a combined $2,500 a month. Separate water & electric meters allow for any occupant to take care of their own bills. There is a water well, but it hasn't been used in a long time. Granite Shoals is a booming area, located just 10 minutes from Marble Falls. There are several veery nice homeowner parks & boat ramps that lead into Lake LBJ. Being so AS-IS & shown by appointment only.

Key facts

• Large storage area
• Large living area
• Sun room

Tags

• SUN ROOM
• LARGE LIVING AREA
• RECENTLY RENOVATED
• FENCED IN YARD
• LARGE STORAGE AREA
• CORNER LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $70 ($837/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (9.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 1.1% in Granite Shoals — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#684 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Marble Falls ISD (town): math 32% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #511 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Highland Lakes El (math 19% / reading 18%, grade F, #3,759 of 4,322 statewide, top 88%, 542 students, 90% FRL); Marble Falls Middle (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #858 of 1,662 statewide, top 54%, 911 students, 67% FRL); Marble Falls H S (math 29% / reading 47%, grade F, #880 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 1,145 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 52% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 764 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 891 units permitted in Burnet County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burnet County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 348 days — a 12% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $59k; list at $235k implies a 297% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 56% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 348 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.27%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $400,883
• List price: $235,000
• Delta: -41.38%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2107 Valley East Ln	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,590 (-0%)	21mo	$295,000	$186	47
2101 Valley East Ln	0.70mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,496 (-6%)	16mo	$319,000	$213	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-39,837
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-52,924
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78654

• Home prices YoY: -31.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 764
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,123 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$277 /mo · $3,325/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$446
• Net cashflow: $70

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,035

Max offer price $235,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $203	-5% $136	+0% $70	+5% $3	+10% $-63
Rent	-10% $-98	-5% $-14	+0% $70	+5% $154	+10% $237
Rate	-1.0pp $188	-0.5pp $130	base $70	+0.5pp $9	+1.0pp $-53

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1404 Kingsvalley Dr Marble Falls, TX	3.0	2.0	1957	$2,400	$1.23	6d	1	0.42mi
1202 N Mystic Dr Granite Shoals, TX	3.0	2.5	1404	$2,199	$1.57	14d	1	1.11mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $235,000 Active 348 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $235,000 Active 345 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $235,000 Active 344 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $235,000 Active 343 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $235,000 Active 342 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $235,000 Active 340 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $235,000 Active 339 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $235,000 Active 336 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $235,000 Active 335 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $235,000 Active 334 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $235,000 Active 331 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $235,000 Active 330 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $235,000 Active 328 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $235,000 Active 327 DOM
15. 2025-09-12
    price $235,000 1040-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1040 chars)

    CALLING ALL INVESTORS! 2 HOMES FOR THE PRICE OF ONE! The main house is 1,594 SQFT and features 2 bedrooms, 2 updated bathrooms, sun room, office, plus a large living area. The second home is 680 SQFT and features 1 bedroom and 1 full bathroom. The smaller home has been recently renovated on the inside. The laundry room for the main house is located just off of the dining area, and the laundry room for the second home is inside the carport. There is a fenced in yard area for the main house plus a large storage area. Both homes sit on a large corner lot & have their own private entrance. Both homes have been recently rented for a combined $2,500 a month. Separate water & electric meters allow for any occupant to take care of their own bills. There is a water well, but it hasn't been used in a long time. Granite Shoals is a booming area, located just 10 minutes from Marble Falls. There are several veery nice homeowner parks & boat ramps that lead into Lake LBJ. Being so AS-IS & shown by appointment only.

16. 2025-08-28
    price $235,000 1040-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1040 chars)

    CALLING ALL INVESTORS! 2 HOMES FOR THE PRICE OF ONE! The main house is 1,594 SQFT and features 2 bedrooms, 2 updated bathrooms, sun room, office, plus a large living area. The second home is 680 SQFT and features 1 bedroom and 1 full bathroom. The smaller home has been recently renovated on the inside. The laundry room for the main house is located just off of the dining area, and the laundry room for the second home is inside the carport. There is a fenced in yard area for the main house plus a large storage area. Both homes sit on a large corner lot & have their own private entrance. Both homes have been recently rented for a combined $2,500 a month. Separate water & electric meters allow for any occupant to take care of their own bills. There is a water well, but it hasn't been used in a long time. Granite Shoals is a booming area, located just 10 minutes from Marble Falls. There are several veery nice homeowner parks & boat ramps that lead into Lake LBJ. Being so AS-IS & shown by appointment only.

17. 2025-07-22
    price $250,000 1040-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1040 chars)

    CALLING ALL INVESTORS! 2 HOMES FOR THE PRICE OF ONE! The main house is 1,594 SQFT and features 2 bedrooms, 2 updated bathrooms, sun room, office, plus a large living area. The second home is 680 SQFT and features 1 bedroom and 1 full bathroom. The smaller home has been recently renovated on the inside. The laundry room for the main house is located just off of the dining area, and the laundry room for the second home is inside the carport. There is a fenced in yard area for the main house plus a large storage area. Both homes sit on a large corner lot & have their own private entrance. Both homes have been recently rented for a combined $2,500 a month. Separate water & electric meters allow for any occupant to take care of their own bills. There is a water well, but it hasn't been used in a long time. Granite Shoals is a booming area, located just 10 minutes from Marble Falls. There are several veery nice homeowner parks & boat ramps that lead into Lake LBJ. Being so AS-IS & shown by appointment only.

18. 2025-07-22
    price $250,000 1040-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1040 chars)

    CALLING ALL INVESTORS! 2 HOMES FOR THE PRICE OF ONE! The main house is 1,594 SQFT and features 2 bedrooms, 2 updated bathrooms, sun room, office, plus a large living area. The second home is 680 SQFT and features 1 bedroom and 1 full bathroom. The smaller home has been recently renovated on the inside. The laundry room for the main house is located just off of the dining area, and the laundry room for the second home is inside the carport. There is a fenced in yard area for the main house plus a large storage area. Both homes sit on a large corner lot & have their own private entrance. Both homes have been recently rented for a combined $2,500 a month. Separate water & electric meters allow for any occupant to take care of their own bills. There is a water well, but it hasn't been used in a long time. Granite Shoals is a booming area, located just 10 minutes from Marble Falls. There are several veery nice homeowner parks & boat ramps that lead into Lake LBJ. Being so AS-IS & shown by appointment only.

19. 2025-07-08
    listed $260,000 Active 1040-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1040 chars)

    CALLING ALL INVESTORS! 2 HOMES FOR THE PRICE OF ONE! The main house is 1,594 SQFT and features 2 bedrooms, 2 updated bathrooms, sun room, office, plus a large living area. The second home is 680 SQFT and features 1 bedroom and 1 full bathroom. The smaller home has been recently renovated on the inside. The laundry room for the main house is located just off of the dining area, and the laundry room for the second home is inside the carport. There is a fenced in yard area for the main house plus a large storage area. Both homes sit on a large corner lot & have their own private entrance. Both homes have been recently rented for a combined $2,500 a month. Separate water & electric meters allow for any occupant to take care of their own bills. There is a water well, but it hasn't been used in a long time. Granite Shoals is a booming area, located just 10 minutes from Marble Falls. There are several veery nice homeowner parks & boat ramps that lead into Lake LBJ. Being so AS-IS & shown by appointment only.

20. 2025-04-18
    listed $260,000 Active 1040-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1040 chars)

    CALLING ALL INVESTORS! 2 HOMES FOR THE PRICE OF ONE! The main house is 1,594 SQFT and features 2 bedrooms, 2 updated bathrooms, sun room, office, plus a large living area. The second home is 680 SQFT and features 1 bedroom and 1 full bathroom. The smaller home has been recently renovated on the inside. The laundry room for the main house is located just off of the dining area, and the laundry room for the second home is inside the carport. There is a fenced in yard area for the main house plus a large storage area. Both homes sit on a large corner lot & have their own private entrance. Both homes have been recently rented for a combined $2,500 a month. Separate water & electric meters allow for any occupant to take care of their own bills. There is a water well, but it hasn't been used in a long time. Granite Shoals is a booming area, located just 10 minutes from Marble Falls. There are several veery nice homeowner parks & boat ramps that lead into Lake LBJ. Being so AS-IS & shown by appointment only.

21. 2024-09-12
    historical
22. 2024-07-20
    price $225,000
23. 2024-07-20
    price
24. 2024-07-18
    listed $225,000
25. 2024-07-18
    listed Active
26. 2009-11-06
    soldstatus
27. 2000-12-14
    soldstatus $59,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,325 · $277/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,300 · $358/mo
• Expected delta: +$975/yr (+$81/mo · 29.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 56% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,476
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$3,325
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,038
• − Management: −$2,038
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$3,101
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$744
• After-tax cash flow: $1,581/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marble Falls ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829010
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,663
• Composite: 30.3/100
• National rank: #6278
• State rank: #511 of 826 in TX

Livability — Granite Shoals

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #684
• US rank: #12785

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Granite Shoals, TX
• County: Burnet County · 35,210 people
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,650
• Household income: $74,130
• Rent vs Own: 33.3% rent · 66.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 354.0

Population outlook (Burnet County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,492 people
• By 2030: 52,995 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 57,528 · +13.9%
• By 2050: 61,444 · +21.7%
• By 2075: 71,098 · +40.8%
• By 2100: 74,634 · +47.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Burnet

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.7) · D 21.7% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: -44.1pp · 2024: -55.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.7 2020: R+53.1 2016: R+56.8 2012: R+54.6 2008: R+44.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.02%
• Current HPI: 252.9861
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.62%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+297.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-12 Price Changed $235,000 Unlock MLS
• 2025-08-28 Price Changed $235,000 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-07-22 Price Changed $250,000 Unlock MLS
• 2025-07-22 Price Changed $250,000 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-07-08 Listed $260,000 Unlock MLS
• 2025-04-18 Listed $260,000 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2024-09-12 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2024-07-20 Price Changed $225,000 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2024-07-20 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2024-07-18 Listed $225,000 LERA
• 2024-07-18 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2009-11-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-12-14 Sold (Public Records) $59,200 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,325 · -13.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.