1576 Reef Dr · Pelican Bay, TX 76020

$135,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,020 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 95 Days on market

Built 1984 6,708 sqft lot $132/sqft · 26% below area Est $183k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Make this your next investment opportunity with a tenant already in place! Please don't disturb tenants. What a great value! Buy this brick front super cute 3 bedroom home in Pelican Bay a quiet suburb next to Azle. Walk to the lake and go fishing for the afternoon. Enjoy endless wildlife including gentle deer that will hang out in your front yard for some treats. This home and area are ideal for everyone! Where else can you find a good solid home for this price?!?!?!? Discover comfort and charm in this delightful 3 bedroom - 2 bath home. With an open floor plan, this home feels bright and airy, offering a seamless flow from living to dining to kitchen, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The 1 car garage provides convenient storage and also serves a laundry area with washer and dryer hookups. The spacious yard offers room to relax or create your ideal outdoor space. Situated within Azle ISD and with no HOA, this home is a fantastic opportunity to plant roots in a friendly, established community or make this your next investment opportunity with a tenant already in place! Don't miss out on this gem! No survey is available. Sold As-Is, seller will not make any repairs. All disclosures online. Please do not disturb occupants. Home is tenant occupied on a month to month basis and the tenant will need a 30 day notice to move out. Home is being managed by a professional management company which can continue on with the new buyer. Tenant is moving out by May 1, 2026- after that this will be a go and show.

Key facts

• Spacious yard
• Open floor plan
• 1 car garage

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• 1 CAR GARAGE
• SPACIOUS YARD
• NO HOA

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $135,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$182,757) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $306 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 6.3% in Pelican Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#917 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Azle ISD (suburban): math 37% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #351 of 826 in TX (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 591 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,850 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.72%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $182,757
• List price: $135,000
• Delta: -26.13%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1576 Reef Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,020 (0%)	0mo	$135,000	$132	100
1568 Reef Dr	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,020 (0%)	1mo	$165,000	$162	98
1941 Gale Dr	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	980 (-4%)	1mo	$65,000	$66	82
1852 Coral Rd	0.04mi	2/2.0 (-1)	903 (-12%)	1mo	$100,000	$111	73
1645 Gale Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,090 (+7%)	0mo	$217,500	$200	71
1755 Pat Ct	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,088 (+7%)	21mo	$207,000	$190	67
1421 Whippoorwill Way	0.65mi	3/2.0	980 (-4%)	1mo	$149,999	$153	62
1337 Fox Hollow Ct	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,090 (+7%)	2mo	$215,000	$197	54
1733 Rick Ct	0.23mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,112 (+9%)	22mo	$230,000	$207	50
1541 Dawn Dr N	0.61mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,080 (+6%)	5mo	$205,000	$190	49
1532 Sheri Ln N	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,109 (+9%)	14mo	$215,000	$194	48
1344 Dawn Ct	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,132 (+11%)	12mo	$215,000	$190	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-3,449
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $17,759
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76020

• Home prices YoY: -20.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 591
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,659 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$240 /mo · $2,882/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $306

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,271

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1920 Reef Ct Azle, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,449	$1.33	43d	1	0.08mi
1844 Sheila Dr Azle, TX	3.0	2.0	1319	$1,675	$1.27	6d	1	0.12mi
1408 Yachtclub Dr Azle, TX	3.0	2.0	1302	$2,000	$1.54	12d	1	0.38mi
1324 White Sand Dr Azle, TX	3.0	2.0	1149	$1,650	$1.44	5d	1	0.41mi
11124 Liberty School Rd Unit 24B Azle, TX	2.0	2.0	700	$999	$1.43	22d	1	0.42mi
11128 Liberty School Rd Unit 28A Azle, TX	2.0	2.0	700	$1,050	$1.50	24d	1	0.43mi
1300 White Sand Dr Unit 1304 Azle, TX	3.0	2.0	1149	$1,695	$1.48	43d	1	0.45mi
1304 White Sand Dr Azle, TX	3.0	2.0	1149	$1,695	$1.48	43d	1	0.46mi
1620 Mockingbird Ln Azle, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,499	$1.38	20d	1	0.74mi
1329 Fox Hollow Ct Azle, TX	2.0	1.0	924	$900	$0.97	6d	1	0.74mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-02-20
   listed $165,000 Active 1543-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1543 chars)

   Make this your next investment opportunity with a tenant already in place! Please don't disturb tenants. What a great value! Buy this brick front super cute 3 bedroom home in Pelican Bay a quiet suburb next to Azle. Walk to the lake and go fishing for the afternoon. Enjoy endless wildlife including gentle deer that will hang out in your front yard for some treats. This home and area are ideal for everyone! Where else can you find a good solid home for this price?!?!?!? Discover comfort and charm in this delightful 3 bedroom - 2 bath home. With an open floor plan, this home feels bright and airy, offering a seamless flow from living to dining to kitchen, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The 1 car garage provides convenient storage and also serves a laundry area with washer and dryer hookups. The spacious yard offers room to relax or create your ideal outdoor space. Situated within Azle ISD and with no HOA, this home is a fantastic opportunity to plant roots in a friendly, established community or make this your next investment opportunity with a tenant already in place! Don't miss out on this gem! No survey is available. Sold As-Is, seller will not make any repairs. All disclosures online. Please do not disturb occupants. Home is tenant occupied on a month to month basis and the tenant will need a 30 day notice to move out. Home is being managed by a professional management company which can continue on with the new buyer. Tenant is moving out by May 1, 2026- after that this will be a go and show.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,882 · $240/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,882 · $240/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,907
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$2,882
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,593
• − Management: −$1,593
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $1,676
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$402
• After-tax cash flow: $3,272/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Azle ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809200
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,473
• Composite: 35.57/100
• National rank: #4900
• State rank: #351 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pelican Bay

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #917
• US rank: #16376

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pelican Bay, TX
• County: Parker County · 144,797 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,602
• Household income: $87,298
• Rent vs Own: 22.3% rent · 77.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 433.0

Population outlook (Tarrant County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,380,417 people
• By 2030: 2,578,900 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 2,974,995 · +25.0%
• By 2050: 3,350,489 · +40.8%
• By 2075: 4,216,909 · +77.2%
• By 2100: 4,741,527 · +99.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 9% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 11%

Political lean MEDSL · Tarrant

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.1) · D 46.7% · R 51.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -5.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.1 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+8.7 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.72%
• Current HPI: 287.155
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.31%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-20 Listed $165,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,882 · -11.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.