3811 Kirkland Rd · Plant City, FL 33566

$179,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1987 1.19 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Acreage you have been looking for with NO HOA and a cute house ! This 3 bedroom/1 bath home sits on 1.19 acres and the back is wooded. .loads of potential to do anything you want! Central AC new in 2016 and roof new in 2018. You have your own well and septic which really cuts down on those utility bills !! There is luxury vinyl flooring in the living/dining and hallway---and the new owner can put whatever they like in the 3 bedrooms. Kitchen has a refrigerator and range and a window overlooking the wooded and private back yard. The bathroom features a tub with shower and the washer/dryer hookups are in the bathroom. .. the current washer & dryer stay but are not warranted. Storage

Key facts

• Central ac
• Wooded back
• Own septic

Tags

• 1.19 ACRES
• WOODED BACK
• CENTRAL AC
• NEW ROOF
• OWN WELL
• OWN SEPTIC

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential (Single Family); Zoning: ASC-1; Pets allowed; Unfurnished; One well and one septic on property; Living area about 1,008 square feet
• HOA & community: No HOA/association

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Attached property; One story; Faces north
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof; Block foundation; Built on a 1.19-acre lot (approximately 146 x 377)
• Exterior features: Deck; Private mailbox; Chain link fencing; Shed(s); Mature landscaping with oak trees; Level, paved lot; Public maintained paved road

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator; Dryer
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry: Other

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $147 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $179k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#227 in FL, #3,587 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, commute F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 166 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $179k implies a 79% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.51%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-15,734
• Equity at exit: $26,689

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $15,163
• Equity at exit: $15,477

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33566

• Home prices YoY: -18.9%
• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 166
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,808 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax from tax record: −$268 /mo · $3,220/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $147

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,622

Max offer price $179,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3728 County Line Rd Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,390	$1.54	23d	1	0.85mi
3732 County Line Rd Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,450	$1.81	14d	1	0.87mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-08
   status $179,000 Pending 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $179,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-04
   remarks 695-char remark
4. 2026-06-04
   listed $179,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,220 · $268/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,220 · $268/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,694
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$3,220
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,736
• − Management: −$1,736
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable loss: −$1,126
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$270
• After-tax cash flow: $2,029/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Plant City

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #227
• US rank: #3587

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 68,525
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,521
• Household income: $72,393
• Rent vs Own: 27.6% rent · 72.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 376.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 14% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 26% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.40%
• Current HPI: 298.1385
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.09%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+79.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $179,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-07 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,220 · +7.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.