2434 S 9th St · Waco, TX 76706

$130,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 74 Days on market

Built 1958 8,886 sqft lot $169/sqft · 30% above area Est $255k · 49% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This Ranch style home is pretty Unique, The Interior has been almost completely remodeled along with the 1184 sq ft addition. It will need some modifications and a few projects to finish the transformation. Brand new kitchen with appliances, updated electrical and plumbing, Right down the road from Baylor University. Lots of possibilities with this home.

Key facts

• 8,886 sq ft lot
• Built 1958
• Listed 73 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-384 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $62k (52.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $124k (4.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $62k (52.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.9% in Waco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#166 in TX, #4,378 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, crime D, commute F.
• Waco ISD (urban): math 20% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #773 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 317 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($42k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 59% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $62,108 (52.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 52% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.39%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $254,900
• List price: $130,000
• Delta: -49.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2511 S 7th	0.12mi	2/1.0	772 (+0%)	4mo	$140,000	$181	90
819 Benton	0.02mi	2/1.0	752 (-2%)	8mo	$45,000	$60	89
2404 S 12th St	0.26mi	2/2.0	812 (+6%)	16mo	$215,000	$265	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.86% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -41.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.28×
• Total profit: $-46,646
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: -82.5%
• Equity multiple: -1.10×
• Total profit: $-76,542
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76706

• Home prices YoY: -29.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 317
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,241 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$202 /mo · $2,428/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$261
• Net cashflow: $-384

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,728

Max offer price $62,108

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-311	-5% $-348	+0% $-384	+5% $-421	+10% $-458
Rent	-10% $-482	-5% $-433	+0% $-384	+5% $-335	+10% $-286
Rate	-1.0pp $-319	-0.5pp $-351	base $-384	+0.5pp $-418	+1.0pp $-452

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2005 S 8th St Waco, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	685	$1,000	$1.46	14d	2	0.40mi
1911 S 8th St Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	798	$1,198	$1.50	22d	1	0.45mi
1918 S 8th St Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1061	$1,200	$1.13	22d	1	0.46mi
410 Daughtrey Ave Waco, TX	1.0	2.0	897	$1,000	$1.11	22d	1	0.53mi
224 Gurley Ln Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	700	$1,025	$1.46	22d	1	0.53mi
1800 S 5th St Waco, TX	2.0	2.0	900	$1,240	$1.38	22d	1	0.55mi
600 Bagby Ave Waco, TX	2.0	2.0–2.5	1102	$1,496	$1.36	22d	2	0.57mi
412 University St Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	864	$1,895	$2.19	22d	1	0.57mi
2410 S 2nd St Waco, TX	2.0–5.0	2.0–5.5	1552	$1,500	$0.97	22d	4	0.60mi
1120 James Ave Unit Brownstone 205 Waco, TX	1.0	1.0	650	$795	$1.22	22d	1	0.67mi
2415 S University Parks Dr Waco, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1095	$1,339	$1.22	14d	27	0.72mi
2000 S 1st St Waco, TX	2.0–5.0	1.0–3.0	1318	$699	$0.53	14d	19	0.74mi
1800 Primrose Dr Waco, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	942	$992	$1.05	14d	33	0.81mi
2825 S University Parks Dr Waco, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1121	$957	$0.85	14d	8	0.83mi
1421 S 12th St Waco, TX	2.0	2.0	928	$985	$1.06	14d	3	0.83mi
66 Daughtrey Ave Waco, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	825	$1,715	$2.08	14d	1	0.85mi
2100 S 19th St Waco, TX	1.0	1.0	684	$1,300	$1.90	22d	1	0.85mi
1508 S 13th St Waco, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	775	$895	$1.15	14d	1	0.85mi
1214 Baylor Ave Waco, TX	2.0	2.0	832	$1,020	$1.23	22d	1	0.88mi
1214 Baylor Ave Waco, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	832	$945	$1.14	14d	2	0.88mi
1214 Baylor Ave Waco, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	736	$1,095	$1.49	44d	2	0.88mi
1226 Baylor Ave Waco, TX	2.0	2.0–2.5	1024	$1,350	$1.32	22d	2	0.88mi
1226 Baylor Ave Waco, TX	2.0	2.0–2.5	1024	$1,337	$1.31	14d	2	0.88mi
1348 S 12th St Waco, TX	2.0	2.0	958	$1,300	$1.36	22d	1	0.90mi
1300 S 11th St Waco, TX	2.0	2.5	1083	$1,209	$1.12	14d	14	0.92mi
715 Cleveland Ave Waco, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	845	$1,436	$1.70	14d	23	1.26mi
1901 Dutton Ave Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	864	$1,400	$1.62	14d	1	1.35mi
709 S 6th St Waco, TX	1.0	1.0	655	$925	$1.41	22d	1	1.37mi
700 S 4th St Waco, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	889	$1,288	$1.45	14d	12	1.43mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $130,000 Active 74 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $130,000 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $130,000 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $130,000 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $130,000 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $130,000 Active 66 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $130,000 Active 65 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $130,000 Active 63 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $130,000 Active 62 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $130,000 Active 61 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $130,000 Active 60 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $130,000 Active 57 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $130,000 Active 56 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $130,000 Active 55 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $130,000 Active 54 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $130,000 Active 53 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $130,000 Active 52 DOM
18. 2026-04-07
    listed $130,000 Active 356-char remark

    Show marketing remark (356 chars)

    This Ranch style home is pretty Unique, The Interior has been almost completely remodeled along with the 1184 sq ft addition. It will need some modifications and a few projects to finish the transformation. Brand new kitchen with appliances, updated electrical and plumbing, Right down the road from Baylor University. Lots of possibilities with this home.

19. 1995-01-10
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,428 · $202/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,428 · $202/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone AE · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 59% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,893
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$2,428
• − Insurance: −$5,768
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,191
• − Management: −$1,191
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable loss: −$6,750
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,620
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,992/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waco ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844280
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $29,208
• Composite: 17.57/100
• National rank: #9043
• State rank: #773 of 826 in TX

Livability — Waco

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #166
• US rank: #4378

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waco, TX
• County: McLennan County · 213,088 people
• City population: 125,319
• Metro: Waco, TX
• Population (ZIP): 41,627
• Household income: $41,656
• Rent vs Own: 61.0% rent · 39.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 3883.0

Population outlook (McLennan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 264,191 people
• By 2030: 273,578 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 291,506 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 308,044 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 349,648 · +32.3%
• By 2100: 364,779 · +38.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 17% Black 15% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · McLennan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 34.0% · R 64.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.9pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+23.4 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+29.8 2008: R+23.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -94.31%
• Current HPI: 230.2557
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.86%
• Metro: Waco, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Listed $130,000 NTREIS
• 1995-01-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+9.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,428 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.