2014 Moonlight Trl · Heartland, TX 75126

$235,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,650 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 2006 6,098 sqft lot $142/sqft · 16% below area Est $280k · 16% under $46/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.8/15.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

HOT HOT Heartland! Come check out this classic red brick home in a growing community 30 minutes from downtown Dallas. Point your rocking chair toward the west on the large front porch, or step inside to a great open concept living room with rich, dark wood laminate. With brand new neutral carpet, trendy greige paint, and fresh white trim, this home shines! But if you think you're Chip or Jo, there's room for your design touches in the kitchen and baths. When you're ready to cool off, exit the French doors and take a dip in the scintillating pool. Put a nice BBQ smoker or fire pit on the flagstone patio and relax! Ring doorbell, storm doors, storage shed, and electronic entry lock are a few other extras here.

Key facts

• Large family room
• Private backyard
• Oversized kitchen

Tags

• LARGE FAMILY ROOM
• OVERSIZED KITCHEN
• LAMINATE WOOD FLOORING
• WALK-IN CLOSETS
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• FLAGSTONE PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community amenities include club house, community pool, playground, park, lake, fishing, jogging/bike path, greenbelt and sidewalks
• Financial info: Assumable qualifying loan option available; Listing accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; Semi-annual association fee; HOA covers maintenance of grounds, management fees, and full use of facilities; HOA managed by CCMC

Exterior

• Parking: Covered driveway; Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener (garage faces front); 2 covered parking spaces
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: MUD water and sewer; Individual water meter; Electricity connected; Cable available; Sidewalks and curbs; Concrete access; MUD (Municipal Utility District)
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Deed-restricted subdivision
• Construction: Built in 2006; Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Gutters; Private yard; Patio; Shed(s); Wood privacy fencing in back yard; Landscaped yard; Sprinkler system; Few trees; Interior lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric range; Microwave; Vented exhaust fan; Water line to refrigerator; Breakfast room adjacent to kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level); Primary bedroom with walk-in closet
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom with garden tub
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric); Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Pantry; Walk-in closets; Cable TV available; High speed internet available; Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Full-size washer/dryer area; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Separate utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-246 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $192k (18.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (6.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Crandall ISD (rural): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #351 of 826 in TX (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Barbara Walker El (math 35% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,946 of 4,322 statewide, top 45%, 663 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 41% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 2179 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $191,512 (18.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.49%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $280,299
• List price: $235,000
• Delta: -16.16%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2014 Moonlight Trl	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,650 (0%)	1mo	$235,000	$142	100
2021 Lake Trail Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,520 (-8%)	0mo	$114,900	$76	82
2911 Firewheel St	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,672 (+1%)	1mo	$275,000	$164	80
2906 Rosemount Ln	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,674 (+2%)	0mo	$265,000	$158	78
3105 Cassinia Pkwy	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,554 (-6%)	0mo	$245,000	$158	78
2008 Pine Knot Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,521 (-8%)	1mo	$224,999	$148	72
2040 Old Glory Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,885 (+14%)	1mo	$255,000	$135	68
2007 Pine Knot Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,475 (-11%)	1mo	$239,900	$163	66
2908 Panhandle Dr	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,785 (+8%)	1mo	$260,000	$146	63
4011 Springfield Ln	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-12%)	1mo	$255,000	$175	54
3205 Glazner Dr	0.55mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,808 (+10%)	1mo	$287,500	$159	53
3402 Pumice Ct	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,442 (-13%)	1mo	$249,900	$173	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-56,946
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.25×
• Total profit: $-82,422
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75126

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 2179
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,198 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$606 /mo · $7,276/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$46
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $-246

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,510

Max offer price $191,512

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 37 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2048 Lake Trail Dr Heartland, TX	3.0	2.0	1900	$2,300	$1.21	1d	1	0.15mi
2048 Lake Trail Dr Heartland, TX	3.0	2.0	1908	$2,250	$1.18	3d	1	0.15mi
4121 Gaillardia Way Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2135	$2,250	$1.05	19d	1	0.42mi
2040 Shawnee Trl Heartland, TX	4.0	2.0	1836	$2,000	$1.09	15d	1	0.45mi
4009 Freedom St Heartland, TX	3.0	2.0	1419	$1,800	$1.27	44d	1	0.50mi
2038 Allyson Dr Heartland, TX	3.0	2.0	1496	$1,900	$1.27	44d	1	0.50mi
2015 Angel Way Heartland, TX	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,671	$1.19	22d	1	0.58mi
2035 Karsen Ln Heartland, TX	4.0	2.0	1587	$2,125	$1.34	1d	1	0.58mi
4002 Bighorn Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1365	$2,120	$1.55	2d	1	0.61mi
3012 Glazner Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	1984	$2,195	$1.11	4d	1	0.63mi
4032 Eagle Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1456	$1,775	$1.22	5d	1	0.64mi
3941 Hometown Blvd Unit 3941 Crandall, TX	3.0	2.5	1736	$2,400	$1.38	44d	1	0.65mi
3001 Glazner Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1510	$2,350	$1.56	44d	1	0.67mi
4001 Fairmont Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1545	$2,000	$1.29	44d	1	0.71mi
3324 Perman Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	1724	$2,125	$1.23	13d	1	0.74mi
1968 Marble Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	2051	$2,350	$1.15	15d	1	0.77mi
3137 Grimaldo Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1585	$2,195	$1.38	24d	1	0.80mi
3137 Grimaldo Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1565	$1,995	$1.27	13d	1	0.80mi
2919 Cascade Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$2,200	$1.49	44d	1	0.87mi
3004 Dakota Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1938	$2,300	$1.19	4d	1	0.97mi
2826 Hudson Dr Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1639	$2,400	$1.46	6d	1	1.10mi
2409 Fleming Dr Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,845	$1.11	24d	1	1.21mi
2237 Mustang Ghost Trl Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1952	$2,040	$1.05	44d	1	1.21mi
2746 Bronte Blvd Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	24d	1	1.23mi
2850 Dusty Rd Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2115	$2,450	$1.16	20d	1	1.24mi
3028 Willow Wood Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.5	1764	$2,600	$1.47	44d	1	1.24mi
2521 Flight Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	24d	1	1.25mi
2745 Bronte Blvd Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,845	$1.11	24d	1	1.25mi
2739 Bronte Blvd Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	24d	1	1.27mi
2510 Flight Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,845	$1.11	24d	1	1.27mi
2513 Flight Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	24d	1	1.28mi
1789 Courage Crk Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,739	$1.04	3d	1	1.33mi
1799 Courage Crk Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,800	$1.43	44d	1	1.34mi
1450 Arabella Ave Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1636	$2,250	$1.38	13d	1	1.34mi
2624 Bartlett St Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	24d	1	1.36mi
3147 Blossom Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	3.0	2177	$2,700	$1.24	44d	1	1.38mi
1507 Trick Riding Way Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1850	$1,900	$1.03	24d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $46 · $552/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 960-char remark
2. 2026-05-05
   historical Active Option Contract 960-char remark
3. 2026-04-30
   listed $235,000 Active 960-char remark
4. 2018-07-23
   soldstatus
5. 2018-07-19
   soldstatus Sold 717-char remark

   Show marketing remark (717 chars)

   HOT HOT Heartland! Come check out this classic red brick home in a growing community 30 minutes from downtown Dallas. Point your rocking chair toward the west on the large front porch, or step inside to a great open concept living room with rich, dark wood laminate. With brand new neutral carpet, trendy greige paint, and fresh white trim, this home shines! But if you think you're Chip or Jo, there's room for your design touches in the kitchen and baths. When you're ready to cool off, exit the French doors and take a dip in the scintillating pool. Put a nice BBQ smoker or fire pit on the flagstone patio and relax! Ring doorbell, storm doors, storage shed, and electronic entry lock are a few other extras here.

6. 2018-07-13
   status Pending 717-char remark

   Show marketing remark (717 chars)

   HOT HOT Heartland! Come check out this classic red brick home in a growing community 30 minutes from downtown Dallas. Point your rocking chair toward the west on the large front porch, or step inside to a great open concept living room with rich, dark wood laminate. With brand new neutral carpet, trendy greige paint, and fresh white trim, this home shines! But if you think you're Chip or Jo, there's room for your design touches in the kitchen and baths. When you're ready to cool off, exit the French doors and take a dip in the scintillating pool. Put a nice BBQ smoker or fire pit on the flagstone patio and relax! Ring doorbell, storm doors, storage shed, and electronic entry lock are a few other extras here.

7. 2018-06-19
   historical Active Option Contract 717-char remark

   Show marketing remark (717 chars)

   HOT HOT Heartland! Come check out this classic red brick home in a growing community 30 minutes from downtown Dallas. Point your rocking chair toward the west on the large front porch, or step inside to a great open concept living room with rich, dark wood laminate. With brand new neutral carpet, trendy greige paint, and fresh white trim, this home shines! But if you think you're Chip or Jo, there's room for your design touches in the kitchen and baths. When you're ready to cool off, exit the French doors and take a dip in the scintillating pool. Put a nice BBQ smoker or fire pit on the flagstone patio and relax! Ring doorbell, storm doors, storage shed, and electronic entry lock are a few other extras here.

8. 2018-06-15
   listed $189,000 Active 717-char remark

   Show marketing remark (717 chars)

   HOT HOT Heartland! Come check out this classic red brick home in a growing community 30 minutes from downtown Dallas. Point your rocking chair toward the west on the large front porch, or step inside to a great open concept living room with rich, dark wood laminate. With brand new neutral carpet, trendy greige paint, and fresh white trim, this home shines! But if you think you're Chip or Jo, there's room for your design touches in the kitchen and baths. When you're ready to cool off, exit the French doors and take a dip in the scintillating pool. Put a nice BBQ smoker or fire pit on the flagstone patio and relax! Ring doorbell, storm doors, storage shed, and electronic entry lock are a few other extras here.

9. 2006-10-19
   soldstatus

   Show marketing remark (255 chars)

   Great 3 bedroom home in pristine new master-planned community! Open living area with fireplace, spacious kitchen with Black on black GE appliances. Huge walk-in pantry. Garden tub in msater bath. Buyer to verify all measurements, features, & schools.

10. 2006-10-10
    historical

    Show marketing remark (255 chars)

    Great 3 bedroom home in pristine new master-planned community! Open living area with fireplace, spacious kitchen with Black on black GE appliances. Huge walk-in pantry. Garden tub in msater bath. Buyer to verify all measurements, features, & schools.

11. 2006-10-04
    listed $116,540

    Show marketing remark (255 chars)

    Great 3 bedroom home in pristine new master-planned community! Open living area with fireplace, spacious kitchen with Black on black GE appliances. Huge walk-in pantry. Garden tub in msater bath. Buyer to verify all measurements, features, & schools.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,276 · $606/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,276 · $606/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,376
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$7,276
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,110
• − Management: −$2,110
• − HOA: −$552
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$6,847
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,643
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,311/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crandall ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815510
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $70,076
• Composite: 35.57/100
• National rank: #4901
• State rank: #351 of 826 in TX

Livability — Heartland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Heartland, TX
• County: Kaufman County · 122,338 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,799
• Household income: $103,673
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1306.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 148.5749
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+101.6% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-06-01 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2026-05-14 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-05-05 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $235,000 NTREIS
• 2018-07-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-07-19 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2018-07-13 Pending — NTREIS
• 2018-06-19 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2018-06-15 Listed $189,000 NTREIS
• 2006-10-19 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2006-10-10 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2006-10-04 Listed $116,540 NTREIS

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,276 · -6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.