11 Birch St Unit A · Pine Lake Park, NJ 08757

$119,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 900 sqft · SingleFamily · 61 Days on market

Good condition $132/sqft · 28% above area Est $93k · 28% over $486/mo HOA · 21% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Updated Private Retreat in Cedar Glen Homes Looking for a peaceful, low-maintenance lifestyle that is actually affordable? This move-in-ready 2-bedroom, 1-bath co-op in the established Cedar Glen Homes adult community is a must-see. Tucked away in a private location with minimal through traffic, this home has been thoughtfully updated and meticulously maintained--just unpack and relax. Located in Toms River (Manchester mailing address), you are minutes from local shopping, dining, and top-tier medical facilities. Whether you're heading to the Jersey Shore beaches or jumping on the Parkway, everything is within easy reach. HOA fees cover taxes and maintenance, making this the perfect low-stress shore area retreat. Enjoy comfortable, quiet senior living at its best!

Key facts

• Thoughtfully updated
• Move in ready
• Private location

Tags

• PRIVATE LOCATION
• MOVE IN READY
• THOUGHTFULLY UPDATED
• METICULOUSLY MAINTAINED
• MINUTES FROM LOCAL SHOPPING
• MINUTES FROM DINING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $119k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $535 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $119k).
• Recommended offer: $112k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.7% vs local median 3.7% in Pine Lake Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#377 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ridgeway Elementary School (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #661 of 1,303 statewide, top 54%, 435 students, 49% FRL); Manchester Township Middle School (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #226 of 431 statewide, top 55%, 582 students, 41% FRL); Manchester Township High School (math 21% / reading 38%, grade F, #290 of 399 statewide, top 74%, 959 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 43% FRL vs 23% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 509 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,334/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) (locally 1010% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $111,860 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.96% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.28%
• DSCR: 1.86
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $93,086
• List price: $119,000
• Delta: 27.84%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9 Birch Dr Unit B	0.03mi	2/1.0	920 (+2%)	5mo	$70,000	$76	91
27 B Cedar St	0.15mi	2/1.0	900 (0%)	4mo	$135,000	$150	90
3 A Birch St	0.09mi	2/1.0	900 (0%)	9mo	$77,000	$86	88
9 Birch St Unit D	0.05mi	2/1.0	900 (0%)	13mo	$90,000	$100	87
5 Cypress St Unit C	0.33mi	2/1.0	900 (0%)	2mo	$70,000	$78	83
22 A Holly St Unit A	0.23mi	2/1.0	920 (+2%)	14mo	$80,500	$88	74
5a Cedar St	0.36mi	2/1.0	900 (0%)	12mo	$100,000	$111	73
2 Cypress St Unit C	0.37mi	1/1.0 (-1)	900 (0%)	11mo	$118,000	$131	68
6A Willow St	0.29mi	2/1.0	920 (+2%)	18mo	$85,000	$92	68
1601 Beacon St	0.33mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (+7%)	7mo	$435,000	$453	62
1641 Madison Ave	0.58mi	2/1.0	821 (-9%)	6mo	$360,000	$438	53
2025 7th Ave	0.56mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,016 (+13%)	15mo	$385,000	$379	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $15,144
• Equity at exit: $17,743

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.75×
• Total profit: $58,443
• Equity at exit: $10,289

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08757

• Active inventory: 509
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,334 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$149 /mo · $1,785/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$486
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$490
• Net cashflow: $535

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,656

Max offer price $119,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $618	-5% $576	+0% $535	+5% $494	+10% $453
Rent	-10% $351	-5% $443	+0% $535	+5% $627	+10% $720
Rate	-1.0pp $595	-0.5pp $566	base $535	+0.5pp $504	+1.0pp $473

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
43C Edinburgh Ln Manchester, NJ	2.0	1.0	836	$2,200	$2.63	45d	1	1.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $486 · $5,832/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $119,000 Pending 61 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,000 Active 60 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,000 Active 59 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,000 Active 58 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,000 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,000 Active 55 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,000 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,000 Active 50 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $119,000 Active 49 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $119,000 Active 46 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,000 Active 45 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,000 Active 44 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,000 Active 43 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,000 Active 42 DOM
15. 2026-04-18
    listed $119,000 Active 780-char remark

    Show marketing remark (780 chars)

    Updated Private Retreat in Cedar Glen Homes Looking for a peaceful, low-maintenance lifestyle that is actually affordable? This move-in-ready 2-bedroom, 1-bath co-op in the established Cedar Glen Homes adult community is a must-see. Tucked away in a private location with minimal through traffic, this home has been thoughtfully updated and meticulously maintained--just unpack and relax. Located in Toms River (Manchester mailing address), you are minutes from local shopping, dining, and top-tier medical facilities. Whether you're heading to the Jersey Shore beaches or jumping on the Parkway, everything is within easy reach. HOA fees cover taxes and maintenance, making this the perfect low-stress shore area retreat. Enjoy comfortable, quiet senior living at its best!

16. 2026-03-19
    price $119,000
17. 2025-10-17
    listed $125,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 64% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,005
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$1,785
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,240
• − Management: −$2,240
• − HOA: −$5,832
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable income: $5,185
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,244
• After-tax cash flow: $5,179/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in-ready home in Cedar Glen Homes offers a peaceful and low-maintenance lifestyle with updated interiors and a well-maintained exterior.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring in kitchen and bathrooms — Modernizes spaces and improves functionality

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in kitchen and bathrooms — Modernizes spaces and improves functionality ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Pine Lake Park

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #377
• US rank: #12719

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 36,087
• Household income: $58,319
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1010.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 9% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -429.32%
• Current HPI: 305.1341
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

-4.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Listed $119,000 MOMLS
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $119,000 MOMLS
• 2025-10-17 Listed $125,000 MOMLS