16424 Elm Creek Ln #4029 · Lakeville, MN 55044

$284,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,424 sqft · Townhouse public records · 85 Days on market

Built 2007 $350/mo HOA · 15% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* * Assumable VA mortgage at 4.625% * * Step into this bright, south-facing end-unit featuring 3 bedrooms, 3 baths, and a vaulted living room with a cozy fireplace framed by east and south-facing windows. Hard to find super-extended garage—perfect for a workshop, studio, or extra storage. Upstairs, find three spacious bedrooms, including a Primary Suite with private bath and walk-in closet. Recent updates include a new furnace (Dec 2024). This home combines comfort, functionality, and natural light—don’t miss your chance to tour! * * Weekends are the best time to see this home! * * main floor new carpet installed 2025.

Key facts

• South-facing
• Primary suite
• Vaulted living room

Tags

• SOUTH-FACING
• VAULTED LIVING ROOM
• COZY FIREPLACE
• BRAND-NEW CARPET
• SUPER-EXTENDED GARAGE
• PRIMARY SUITE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Has HOA (Rowcal); HOA fee $350 monthly; HOA includes hazard insurance, lawn care, grounds maintenance, professional management, sewer, snow removal, and water

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: City water (connected); City sewer (in street); Natural gas
• Home design: Residential attached property; Two levels; Primary bedroom suite; 3 bedrooms on one level
• Construction: Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Patio; Stone and vinyl exterior; In-ground sprinkler; Patio/porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Kitchen window
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (primary suite included); Upper-level bedrooms: two secondary bedrooms
• Bathrooms: Primary bathroom with 3/4 bath and private access; Upper-level full bathroom; Main level half bath
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Kitchen window; Primary bedroom with walk-in closet; Vaulted ceilings; Gas fireplace in the living room
• Laundry & utility: Upper-level laundry; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-158 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $257k (9.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $241k (15.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $241k (15.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.2% in Lakeville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#25 in MN, #711 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F, cost of living F.
• Rosemount-Apple Valley-Eagan (suburban): math 50% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #58 of 301 in MN (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Parkview Elementary (math 46% / reading 43%, grade F, #534 of 857 statewide, top 66%, 694 students, 42% FRL); Scott Highlands Middle (math 40% / reading 62%, grade C, #69 of 258 statewide, top 27%, 1,184 students, 28% FRL); Rosemount Senior High (math 54% / reading 67%, grade C+, #43 of 471 statewide, top 9%, 2,425 students, 21% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 719 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,134 units permitted in Dakota County in 2024 (898 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dakota County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $174k; list at $285k implies a 64% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $241,137 (15.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.38%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.38% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-55,227
• Equity at exit: $42,480

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-56,860
• Equity at exit: $24,633

Cash invested: $79,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55044

• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 719
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,411 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,494
• Tax from tax record: −$100 /mo · $1,206/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$350
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$506
• Net cashflow: $-158

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,612

Max offer price $256,940

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $3	-5% $-78	+0% $-158	+5% $-239	+10% $-320
Rent	-10% $-349	-5% $-254	+0% $-158	+5% $-63	+10% $32
Rate	-1.0pp $-15	-0.5pp $-86	base $-158	+0.5pp $-232	+1.0pp $-307

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,225
• Closing costs: $8,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5076 161st St W Lakeville, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1186	$2,702	$2.28	0d	14	0.47mi
15899 Elmhurst Ln Saint Paul, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	1031	$2,667	$2.59	0d	14	0.47mi
5181 161st St W Lakeville, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1044	$2,340	$2.24	0d	4	0.47mi
16106 Duvane Way Lakeville, MN	3.0	3.0	1564	$3,395	$2.17	23d	1	0.76mi
17040 Dysart Pl Unit 17040 Lakeville, MN	3.0	2.5	1700	$2,700	$1.59	0d	1	0.91mi
17074 Dysart Pl Unit 17074 Lakeville, MN	3.0	2.5	1750	$2,800	$1.60	12d	1	0.94mi
15602 Eagles Nest Way Apple Valley, MN	2.0	2.0	1637	$1,975	$1.21	1d	1	0.98mi
15602 Eagles Nest Way Apple Valley, MN	2.0	2.0	1637	$1,975	$1.21	7d	1	0.98mi
15782 Flackwood Trl Apple Valley, MN	3.0	1.5	1400	$1,995	$1.43	22d	1	1.00mi
6444 158th St W Apple Valley, MN	2.0	2.5	1260	$1,889	$1.50	4d	1	1.18mi
15734 Foliage Ave Saint Paul, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1130	$2,217	$1.96	0d	15	1.32mi
15539 Float Ln Apple Valley, MN	2.0	1.5	927	$1,795	$1.94	26d	1	1.32mi
15482 Flight Way Apple Valley, MN	2.0	1.0	1190	$1,825	$1.53	1d	1	1.33mi
15482 Flight Way Apple Valley, MN	2.0	1.0	1190	$1,825	$1.53	4d	1	1.33mi
15531 Flyboat Ln Apple Valley, MN	2.0	1.5	1010	$1,865	$1.85	26d	1	1.36mi
15533 Flight Way Apple Valley, MN	2.0	1.5	976	$1,995	$2.04	26d	1	1.42mi
15346 Flower Way #187 Apple Valley, MN	3.0	2.0	1671	$2,700	$1.62	26d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $350 · $4,200/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-15
   historical Contingent - Inspection
2. 2026-03-02
   listed $284,900 Active
3. 2026-02-23
   status Active
4. 2025-11-11
   price $283,500
5. 2025-09-01
   price $284,900
6. 2025-08-21
   price $288,500
7. 2025-07-02
   listed $290,000 Active
8. 2014-06-20
   soldstatus $174,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,206 · $100/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,198 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: +$992/yr (+$83/mo · 82.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,936
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,959
• − Property taxes: −$1,206
• − Insurance: −$1,424
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,315
• − Management: −$2,315
• − HOA: −$4,200
• − Depreciation: −$8,288
• Taxable loss: −$6,771
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,625
• After-tax cash flow: $-274/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rosemount-Apple Valley-Eagan
• NCES district ID: 2732390
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $85,559
• Composite: 49.48/100
• National rank: #2000
• State rank: #58 of 301 in MN

Livability — Lakeville

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #25
• US rank: #711

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeville, MN
• County: Dakota County · 417,704 people
• City population: 64,762
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 64,762
• Household income: $141,551
• Rent vs Own: 12.0% rent · 88.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 956.0

Population outlook (Dakota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 450,671 people
• By 2030: 465,068 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 486,770 · +8.0%
• By 2050: 498,743 · +10.7%
• By 2075: 533,865 · +18.5%
• By 2100: 550,133 · +22.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 6% Two or more races 5% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 13% Romanian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dakota

• 2024 margin: D (+12.9) · D 55.4% · R 42.5% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.5pp · 2024: 12.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+4.7 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+5.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -165.50%
• Current HPI: 216.0601
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.38%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+63.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-02 Listed $284,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-23 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-11 Price Changed $283,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-01 Price Changed $284,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-21 Price Changed $288,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-02 Listed $290,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-20 Sold (Public Records) $174,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,206 · +23.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.