24089 NE 152nd Ln · Lake Kerr, FL 32134

$128,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 925 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1987 0.32 ac lot Est $235k · 46% under ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Cute concrete block cottage steps to Little Lake Weir.

Key facts

• 0.32 acre lot
• Built 1987

Tags

• CONCRETE BLOCK COTTAGE
• STEPS TO LITTLE LAKE WEIR

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned R4; Lot about 0.32 acre (approx. 140 x 100); No waterfront; Unfurnished; One well and one septic on the property; Directions: Hwy 19 North to Hwy 316, turn West. Left at NE 152nd Ln, follow to property on right.

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Faces south
• Construction: Block construction; Metal roof; Slab foundation; Built as part of a building area totaling about 1,314 sq ft
• Exterior features: Cleared lot; Road with limerock surface; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Electric heating; Wall/window AC units
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Window treatments; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room (outside); Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $128k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $234 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $128k).
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 5.8% in Lake Kerr — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 299 active listings in the ZIP; 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $885 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $128,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.84%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $234,950
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15120 NE 240th Ct	0.19mi	2/1.0	912 (-1%)	2mo	$232,000	$254	87

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-5,812
• Equity at exit: $19,085

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $14,208
• Equity at exit: $11,067

Cash invested: $35,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32134

• Home prices YoY: -24.4%
• Active inventory: 299
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,405 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$671
• Tax from tax record: −$151 /mo · $1,816/yr
• Insurance: −$53
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$295
• Net cashflow: $234

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,109

Max offer price $128,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $307	-5% $270	+0% $234	+5% $198	+10% $162
Rent	-10% $123	-5% $179	+0% $234	+5% $290	+10% $345
Rate	-1.0pp $299	-0.5pp $267	base $234	+0.5pp $201	+1.0pp $167

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,000
• Closing costs: $3,840
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-03
   remarks 54-char remark
2. 2026-06-03
   listed $128,000 Pending 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,816 · $151/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,816 · $151/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,861
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,170
• − Property taxes: −$1,816
• − Insurance: −$640
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,349
• − Management: −$1,349
• − Depreciation: −$3,724
• Taxable income: $814
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$195
• After-tax cash flow: $2,615/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Kerr

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Kerr, FL
• Population (ZIP): 7,400

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.45%
• Current HPI: 224.9549
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-18.5% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-02 Listed $128,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-08 Price Changed $128,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-05 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-15 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-01 Listed $129,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-17 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-18 Price Changed $139,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-12 Price Changed $149,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-15 Listed $157,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+7.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,816 · +14.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.