Gerson Plan · New Braunfels, TX 78132

$218,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,354 sqft · SingleFamily · 165 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.7/30.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location at the front of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms just off the main living areas, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

🏗️ New construction. The $218,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $266,097.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $219k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-539 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $188k (14.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (24.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $165k (24.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#9 in TX, #925 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Morningside El (math 44% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,680 of 4,322 statewide, top 40%, 810 students, 63% FRL); Canyon Middle (math 48% / reading 44%, grade D+, #462 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,175 students, 47% FRL); Canyon H S (math 59% / reading 65%, grade B-, #237 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 2,348 students, 35% FRL) — zoned schools average 48% FRL vs 31% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.3%/yr); 1701 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,420 units permitted in Comal County in 2024 (1,164 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 15% of the median local income ($135k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Comal County population projected at +70% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 165 days — a 12% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $164,535 (24.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 165 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.68%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 13.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $266,097
• List price: $218,999
• Delta: -17.70%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3636 Tilden	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,379 (+2%)	6mo	$229,500	$166	80
3795 Moon Hill Rd	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,354 (0%)	1mo	$197,999	$146	77
3769 Swift Fox Rd	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,402 (+4%)	9mo	$204,990	$146	68
3836 Swift Fox Rd	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,402 (+4%)	4mo	$209,500	$149	67
3765 Swift Fox Rd	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,266 (-6%)	8mo	$194,990	$154	64
3824 Swift Fox Rd	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,402 (+4%)	9mo	$215,000	$153	64
3820 Swift Fox Rd	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,266 (-6%)	4mo	$199,000	$157	63
3849 Swift Fox Rd	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,266 (-6%)	5mo	$214,999	$170	60
744 Horsetail Ln	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,474 (+9%)	5mo	$214,000	$145	59
3823 Moon Hill Rd	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,483 (+10%)	0mo	$197,999	$134	55
3972 Cherokee Blvd	0.72mi	3/2.5	1,438 (+6%)	0mo	$220,000	$153	54
3960 Cherokee Blvd	0.74mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,245 (-8%)	1mo	$208,000	$167	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -35.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.10×
• Total profit: $-82,252
• Equity at exit: $39,676

10-year hold

• IRR: -68.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.80×
• Total profit: $-134,371
• Equity at exit: $23,007

Cash invested: $74,507 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 46 active · 15 under contract
• Months of supply: 19.7 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $235,999 ($160/sqft)
• Median days on market: 79 d
• This list price: 26% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +22.9% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78132

• Rents YoY: -2.3%
• Active inventory: 1701
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,645 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,395
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$333 /mo · $3,991/yr
• Insurance: −$111
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $-539

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,328

Max offer price $188,087

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-355	-5% $-447	+0% $-539	+5% $-631	+10% $-723
Rent	-10% $-669	-5% $-604	+0% $-539	+5% $-474	+10% $-409
Rate	-1.0pp $-405	-0.5pp $-471	base $-539	+0.5pp $-608	+1.0pp $-678

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,524
• Closing costs: $7,983
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
751 Bullsnake Trl New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,545	$1.07	2d	1	0.09mi
722 Killdeer Trl New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1273	$3,200	$2.51	184d	1	0.09mi
713 Killdeer Trl New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1668	$1,700	$1.02	184d	1	0.10mi
740 Bullsnake Trl New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,650	$1.15	184d	1	0.12mi
3508 Axis Hill St New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1218	$1,495	$1.23	88d	1	0.13mi
757 Tulsa Trl New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,475	$0.91	9d	1	0.14mi
758 Tulsa Trl New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,550	$1.08	88d	1	0.17mi
738 Tulsa Trl New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,565	$0.96	45d	1	0.17mi
738 Tulsa Trl New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,565	$0.96	10d	1	0.17mi
767 Grey Dove Trl New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,800	$1.12	28d	1	0.19mi
3645 Swift Fox Rd New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,695	$1.06	184d	1	0.20mi
742 Tower Hill Vw New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,545	$1.22	143d	1	0.28mi
754 Tower Hill Vw New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,525	$1.09	88d	1	0.28mi
3717 Wentz Hill Dr Marion, TX	4.0	2.0	1492	$1,800	$1.21	40d	1	0.34mi
3738 Swift Fox Rd New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,545	$1.22	155d	1	0.34mi
3707 Moon Hill Rd Marion, TX	3.0	2.0	1354	$1,499	$1.11	101d	1	0.35mi
3729 Wentz Hill Dr Marion, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,595	$1.03	10d	1	0.35mi
3768 Swift Fox Rd New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,495	$1.18	10d	1	0.40mi
3744 Axis Hill St New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,475	$1.05	69d	1	0.41mi
3748 Axis Hill St New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,495	$1.18	10d	1	0.42mi
3759 Moon Hill Rd Marion, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,575	$1.06	69d	1	0.42mi
3771 Moon Hill Rd Marion, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,445	$0.97	74d	1	0.43mi
3795 Moon Hill Rd Marion, TX	3.0	2.0	1354	$1,565	$1.16	37d	1	0.47mi
3795 Moon Hill Rd Marion, TX	3.0	2.0	1354	$1,495	$1.10	6d	1	0.47mi
3820 Swift Fox Rd New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,540	$1.22	127d	1	0.47mi
3927 Turtle Crk New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1686	$1,750	$1.04	10d	1	0.55mi
3926 Turtle Crk New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1304	$1,550	$1.19	118d	1	0.56mi
3940 Prairie Crk New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1602	$1,490	$0.93	45d	1	0.58mi
3940 Prairie Crk New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1580	$1,490	$0.94	25d	1	0.58mi
3935 Trail de Paris New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1602	$1,600	$1.00	88d	1	0.61mi
3935 Trail de Paris New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1602	$1,600	$1.00	10d	1	0.61mi
3960 Prairie Crk New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1305	$1,650	$1.26	10d	1	0.62mi
635 Cherokee Blvd New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	1467	$1,439	$0.98	19d	1	0.63mi
635 Cherokee Blvd New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	1467	$1,439	$0.98	15d	1	0.63mi
3979 Turtle Crk New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1674	$1,500	$0.90	10d	1	0.65mi
3958 Trail de Paris New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1602	$1,500	$0.94	88d	1	0.66mi
3958 Trail de Paris New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1602	$1,500	$0.94	10d	1	0.66mi
3962 Tarrant Trl New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	1517	$1,695	$1.12	10d	1	0.67mi
3962 Tarrant Trl New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	1517	$1,695	$1.12	17d	1	0.67mi
3970 Trail de Paris New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1602	$1,550	$0.97	101d	1	0.68mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $219,999

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: New construction plan (Gerson)Address: New Braunfels, TX
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,354

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan home (Gerson)Active listing

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-10-20
   days on market $218,999 Active 165 DOM
2. 2026-10-19
   days on market $218,999 Active 164 DOM
3. 2026-10-18
   days on market $218,999 Active 163 DOM
4. 2026-10-17
   days on market $218,999 Active 162 DOM
5. 2026-10-16
   days on market $218,999 Active 161 DOM
6. 2026-10-15
   days on market $218,999 Active 160 DOM
7. 2026-10-14
   days on market $218,999 Active 159 DOM
8. 2026-10-13
   days on market $218,999 Active 158 DOM
9. 2026-10-12
   days on market $218,999 Active 157 DOM
10. 2026-10-11
    days on market $218,999 Active 156 DOM
11. 2026-10-10
    days on market $218,999 Active 155 DOM
12. 2026-10-09
    days on market $218,999 Active 154 DOM
13. 2026-10-09
    days on market $218,999 Active 153 DOM
14. 2026-10-07
    days on market $218,999 Active 152 DOM
15. 2026-10-06
    days on market $218,999 Active 151 DOM
16. 2026-10-05
    days on market $218,999 Active 150 DOM
17. 2026-10-04
    days on market $218,999 Active 149 DOM
18. 2026-10-04
    days on market $218,999 Active 148 DOM
19. 2026-10-02
    days on market $218,999 Active 147 DOM
20. 2026-10-01
    days on market $218,999 Active 146 DOM
21. 2026-09-30
    days on market $218,999 Active 145 DOM
22. 2026-09-29
    days on market $218,999 Active 144 DOM
23. 2026-09-28
    days on market $218,999 Active 143 DOM
24. 2026-09-27
    days on market $218,999 Active 142 DOM
25. 2026-09-25
    days on market $218,999 Active 140 DOM
26. 2026-09-24
    days on market $218,999 Active 139 DOM
27. 2026-09-23
    days on market $218,999 Active 138 DOM
28. 2026-09-22
    pricedays on market $218,999 Active 137 DOM
29. 2026-09-21
    days on market $216,999 Active 136 DOM
30. 2026-09-20
    days on market $216,999 Active 135 DOM
31. 2026-09-19
    days on market $216,999 Active 134 DOM
32. 2026-09-18
    days on market $216,999 Active 133 DOM
33. 2026-09-17
    days on market $216,999 Active 132 DOM
34. 2026-09-16
    days on market $216,999 Active 131 DOM
35. 2026-09-15
    days on market $216,999 Active 130 DOM
36. 2026-09-14
    days on market $216,999 Active 129 DOM
37. 2026-09-14
    pricedays on market $216,999 Active 128 DOM
38. 2026-09-12
    days on market $214,999 Active 127 DOM
39. 2026-09-11
    days on market $214,999 Active 126 DOM
40. 2026-09-05
    days on market $214,999 Active 120 DOM
41. 2026-09-04
    days on market $214,999 Active 119 DOM
42. 2026-08-31
    pricedays on market $214,999 Active 115 DOM
43. 2026-08-30
    days on market $212,999 Active 114 DOM
44. 2026-08-29
    days on market $212,999 Active 113 DOM
45. 2026-08-28
    days on market $212,999 Active 112 DOM
46. 2026-08-27
    days on market $212,999 Active 111 DOM
47. 2026-08-25
    days on market $212,999 Active 109 DOM
48. 2026-08-24
    days on market $212,999 Active 108 DOM
49. 2026-08-23
    days on market $212,999 Active 107 DOM
50. 2026-08-22
    days on market $212,999 Active 106 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,744
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,906
• − Property taxes: −$3,991
• − Insurance: −$1,330
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,580
• − Management: −$1,580
• − Depreciation: −$7,741
• Taxable loss: −$11,383
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,732
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,737/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,770–$20,310 screening

This single-level home is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. A fresh coat of paint on the exterior siding and cleaning the gutters would enhance its curb appeal and property value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Inspect and clean gutters — Maintaining gutters ensures proper drainage and prevents water damage to the home. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 49/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Morningside El F TX #1,680/4,322 Nat'l #20,973/41,679 Middle Canyon Middle D+ TX #462/1,662 Nat'l #4,433/14,009 High Canyon H S B- TX #237/1,632 Nat'l #3,220/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Comal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814730
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,792
• Composite: 51.79/100
• National rank: #1671
• State rank: #58 of 826 in TX

A Composite livability gradescore 83/100

Livability — New Braunfels

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #925

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Comal County · 175,637 people
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 40,953
• Household income: $135,315
• Rent vs Own: 12.5% rent · 87.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 5% of renters

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Population outlook (Comal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,637 people
• By 2030: 199,911 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 249,436 · +42.0%
• By 2050: 299,430 · +70.5%
• By 2075: 423,857 · +141.3%
• By 2100: 512,048 · +191.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 13% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 1%
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Comal

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.9pp toward D · 2008: -47.4pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+42.7 2016: R+50.1 2012: R+54.1 2008: R+47.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -139.57%
• Current HPI: 202.432
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.32%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $219,999

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: New construction plan (Gerson)Address: New Braunfels, TX
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,354

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan home (Gerson)Active listing