1420 Dutch Broadway · Elmont, NY 11003

$499,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,969 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1949 7,228 sqft lot Est $916k · 45% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• Schools +6.7/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This property is full of potential and perfect for both savvy investors and homeowners seeking additional rental income. Property offers functional living space that is comfortably sized for the area, with a layout that can easily be customized to suit your needs. Located in a well-connected neighborhood, the property offers exceptional convenience. Enjoy quick access to major roads and highways, making commuting a breeze. Nearby, you’ll find a wide range of local amenities, including shopping centers, grocery stores, banks, reputable schools, parks, and a variety of restaurants and cafe—everything you need just minutes away. Whether you're looking to expand your real estate por

Key facts

• Reputable schools
• Local amenities
• 7,228 sq ft lot

Tags

• FUNCTIONAL LIVING SPACE
• WELL-CONNECTED NEIGHBORHOOD
• QUICK ACCESS TO MAJOR ROADS
• LOCAL AMENITIES
• REPUTABLE SCHOOLS
• VARIETY OF RESTAURANTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $499k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-254 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $454k (9.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $437k (12.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $437k (12.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.1% in Elmont — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#134 in NY, #2,127 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Valley Stream Central High School District (suburban): math 71% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #78 of 590 in NY (top 13%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Valley Stream Memorial Junior High School (math 29% / reading 66%, grade C-, #306 of 729 statewide, top 43%, 1,038 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 40% FRL vs 17% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 48% at this address vs 74% district-wide (-26 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Valley Stream Central High School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 141 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $190k; list at $499k implies a 163% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 54% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $436,818 (12.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.18%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $915,585
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
753 Wyngate Dr W	0.32mi	4/2.0	1,960 (-0%)	1mo	$900,000	$459	84
775 N Ascan St	0.16mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,956 (-1%)	10mo	$910,000	$465	79
858 W Gate	0.20mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,989 (+1%)	6mo	$750,000	$377	74
684 Dorothea Ln	0.28mi	5/3.0 (+1)	1,768 (-10%)	1mo	$930,000	$526	60
525 Keller Ave	0.47mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,800 (-9%)	0mo	$877,000	$487	58
562 Arcadian Ave	0.48mi	4/3.0	1,772 (-10%)	2mo	$865,000	$488	56
27 Caroline Ave	0.66mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,988 (+1%)	10mo	$624,000	$314	54
39 Morris Pkwy	0.75mi	4/2.0	1,859 (-6%)	6mo	$850,000	$457	51
1031 Jerome Rd	0.67mi	4/2.0	1,700 (-14%)	8mo	$925,000	$544	39
884 Troy St	0.60mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,220 (+13%)	3mo	$860,000	$387	39
312 Norfeld Blvd	0.65mi	4/2.0	1,678 (-15%)	10mo	$720,000	$429	37
37 Remson St	0.71mi	4/3.0	1,702 (-14%)	10mo	$845,000	$496	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-96,808
• Equity at exit: $74,403

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-104,214
• Equity at exit: $43,144

Cash invested: $139,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11003

• Active inventory: 141
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,368 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,617
• Tax from tax record: −$880 /mo · $10,561/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$917
• Net cashflow: $-254

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,690

Max offer price $454,146

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $29	-5% $-113	+0% $-254	+5% $-395	+10% $-536
Rent	-10% $-599	-5% $-426	+0% $-254	+5% $-81	+10% $91
Rate	-1.0pp $-3	-0.5pp $-127	base $-254	+0.5pp $-383	+1.0pp $-515

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $124,750
• Closing costs: $14,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1316 McClure Ave Elmont, NY	4.0	2.5	1230	$5,500	$4.47	0d	1	0.94mi
1016 Oaks Dr Franklin Square, NY	5.0	2.0	2026	$4,500	$2.22	0d	1	0.99mi
1318 Post Ave Elmont, NY	4.0	2.5	2240	$4,800	$2.14	0d	1	1.31mi
103 E Saint Marks Pl Valley Stream, NY	3.0	1.0	1758	$3,700	$2.10	0d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2025-04-10
   status Pending
2. 2025-04-04
   listed $499,000 Active
3. 1996-10-03
   soldstatus $190,000
4. 1977-05-01
   soldstatus $63,363

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $10,561 · $880/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,561 · $880/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 54% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $52,418
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,952
• − Property taxes: −$10,561
• − Insurance: −$2,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,193
• − Management: −$4,193
• − Depreciation: −$14,516
• Taxable loss: −$11,492
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,758
• After-tax cash flow: $-289/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Valley Stream Central High School District
• NCES district ID: 3629520
• Math proficiency: 71% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $94,844
• Composite: 66.54/100
• National rank: #418
• State rank: #78 of 590 in NY

Livability — Elmont

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #134
• US rank: #2127

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elmont, NY
• City population: 44,716
• Population (ZIP): 44,716

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,409,302 people
• By 2030: 1,431,482 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 1,471,607 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 1,502,845 · +6.6%
• By 2075: 1,575,403 · +11.8%
• By 2100: 1,554,356 · +10.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.74)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 41% Hispanic / Latino 22% Asian 17% White 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 12% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 43% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 19% French/Haitian/Cajun 10% Other Indo-European 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.6pp toward R · 2008: 8.4pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: D+9.5 2016: D+5.3 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+8.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -654.86%
• Current HPI: 346.1523
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+687.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-04-10 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-04 Listed $499,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1996-10-03 Sold (Public Records) $190,000 Public Records
• 1977-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $63,363 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $10,561 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.