1191 Dawnridge Dr · Canyon Lake, TX 78133

$229,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 185 Days on market

Built 1976 7,501 sqft lot $212/sqft · 19% below area Est $282k · 19% under $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very nice 2-story, 2-bedroom, 1 full-bath home in a quiet, well-maintained neighborhood—an easy walk from Canyon Lake. Well built, in great condition, with lots of potential for expansion. Concrete foundation; cement-filled cinder block exterior walls on the ground floor; and 2" x 6" insulated frame walls on the second floor. There is a native-stone fireplace in the second-floor living area. The first floor includes a two-bay enclosed garage, a separate laundry room, and an additional A/C-conditioned bonus flex space that can function as a living area, workshop, or studio. This space has its own keyed exterior access, connects directly to the garage, and includes the staircase to the second floor. It also provides additional insulated, temperature-controlled square footage that is not reflected in the county’s reported square footage. Your POA membership provides access to the pool, clubhouse, boat ramps, parks, and tennis courts. Boat ramps #6 and #7 are just around the corner from the property.

Key facts

• Access to clubhouse
• Access to pool
• 7,501 sq ft lot

Tags

• NATIVE STONE FIREPLACE
• TWO BAY ENCLOSED GARAGE
• SEPARATE LAUNDRY ROOM
• KEYED EXTERIOR ACCESS
• ACCESS TO POOL
• ACCESS TO CLUBHOUSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $229k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-218 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $191k (16.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (22.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (22.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 2.2% in Canyon Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#534 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Startzville El (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 465 students, 68% FRL); Mt Valley Middle (math 55% / reading 51%, grade C+, #281 of 1,662 statewide, top 18%, 808 students, 49% FRL); Canyon Lake H S (math 46% / reading 56%, grade D+, #482 of 1,632 statewide, top 30%, 1,038 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 31% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 1029 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,420 units permitted in Comal County in 2024 (1,164 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Comal County population projected at +70% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 185 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,997 (22.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 185 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.08%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $282,281
• List price: $229,000
• Delta: -18.88%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2442 Candlelight Dr	0.25mi	2/2.0	1,072 (-1%)	7mo	$267,000	$249	77
1212 Blueridge Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,090 (+1%)	17mo	$274,000	$251	69
405 Canyon Edge	0.21mi	2/2.0	1,040 (-4%)	17mo	$239,999	$231	66
454 Canyon Edge	0.23mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,140 (+6%)	12mo	$249,900	$219	61
484 Glenn	0.29mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (+7%)	8mo	$185,000	$161	60
1580 Blueridge	0.39mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,184 (+10%)	3mo	$245,000	$207	54
1113 Singing Hills Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,120 (+4%)	21mo	$229,900	$205	54
1198 Greenhill Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,207 (+12%)	20mo	$279,900	$232	47
323 N Scenic Loop	0.68mi	2/1.0	993 (-8%)	11mo	$130,000	$131	46
1635 Lakeview	0.54mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,208 (+12%)	2mo	$121,600	$101	44
593 Wagon Wheel	0.48mi	2/1.0	936 (-13%)	14mo	$230,000	$246	44
1657 Blueridge	0.45mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,240 (+15%)	1mo	$275,000	$222	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-56,118
• Equity at exit: $34,145

10-year hold

• IRR: -39.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.35×
• Total profit: $-86,582
• Equity at exit: $19,800

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78133

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 1029
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,770 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax from tax record: −$295 /mo · $3,537/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$372
• Net cashflow: $-218

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,046

Max offer price $190,528

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-88	-5% $-153	+0% $-218	+5% $-283	+10% $-347
Rent	-10% $-358	-5% $-288	+0% $-218	+5% $-148	+10% $-78
Rate	-1.0pp $-102	-0.5pp $-160	base $-218	+0.5pp $-277	+1.0pp $-337

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,250
• Closing costs: $6,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1104 Blueridge Dr Canyon Lake, TX	2.0	2.0	1250	$1,700	$1.36	45d	1	0.10mi
1235 Green Hill Dr Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1326	$1,800	$1.36	45d	1	0.16mi
1198 Green Hill Dr Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1207	$1,775	$1.47	6d	1	0.17mi
1569 Comfort Unit Na Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,950	$1.62	16d	1	0.33mi
1569 Comfort Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,950	$1.62	19d	1	0.33mi
1415 Glenn Dr Canyon Lake, TX	2.0	1.0	802	$1,550	$1.93	45d	1	0.51mi
4348 Morningside Way Canyon Lake, TX	2.0	2.0	1166	$1,550	$1.33	22d	1	0.52mi
612 Mockingbird Dr Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1420	$1,950	$1.37	12d	1	0.55mi
2676 Woodcrest Dr Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1180	$2,100	$1.78	45d	1	0.59mi
668 Creekside Dr Canyon Lake, TX	2.0	2.0	980	$1,195	$1.22	0d	1	1.10mi
634 Flatrock Dr Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,400	$1.92	45d	1	1.11mi
446 W Overlook Dr Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1392	$1,825	$1.31	45d	1	1.16mi
1314 Stagecoach Dr Unit 1564857P Canyon Lake, TX	2.0	1.0	839	$3,350	$3.99	0d	1	1.18mi
662 Hillclimb Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	1.5	1345	$1,950	$1.45	45d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $229,000 Active 185 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,000 Active 182 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,000 Active 181 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,000 Active 180 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,000 Active 179 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $229,000 Active 177 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $235,000 Active 173 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $235,000 Active 172 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $235,000 Active 171 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $235,000 Active 168 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $235,000 Active 167 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $235,000 Active 166 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $235,000 Active 165 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $235,000 Active 164 DOM
15. 2025-12-18
    listed $245,000 Active 1033-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1033 chars)

    Very nice 2-story, 2-bedroom, 1 full-bath home in a quiet, well-maintained neighborhood—an easy walk from Canyon Lake. Well built, in great condition, with lots of potential for expansion. Concrete foundation; cement-filled cinder block exterior walls on the ground floor; and 2" x 6" insulated frame walls on the second floor. There is a native-stone fireplace in the second-floor living area. The first floor includes a two-bay enclosed garage, a separate laundry room, and an additional A/C-conditioned bonus flex space that can function as a living area, workshop, or studio. This space has its own keyed exterior access, connects directly to the garage, and includes the staircase to the second floor. It also provides additional insulated, temperature-controlled square footage that is not reflected in the county’s reported square footage. Your POA membership provides access to the pool, clubhouse, boat ramps, parks, and tennis courts. Boat ramps #6 and #7 are just around the corner from the property.

16. 2006-11-01
    soldstatus
17. 2006-10-31
    soldstatus 290-char remark

    Show marketing remark (290 chars)

    PC321. Clean and well built home with view of Canyon Lake. Only 3/4 mile from boat ramp and less that 1/2 mile from park/pool. Washer, dryer and 2 refrigerators to convey. Stone wood burning fireplace. Never pay storage fees for water toys again! Plenty of room in great 3 car garage.

18. 2006-03-07
    listed $110,000 290-char remark

    Show marketing remark (290 chars)

    PC321. Clean and well built home with view of Canyon Lake. Only 3/4 mile from boat ramp and less that 1/2 mile from park/pool. Washer, dryer and 2 refrigerators to convey. Stone wood burning fireplace. Never pay storage fees for water toys again! Plenty of room in great 3 car garage.

19. 1993-12-03
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,537 · $295/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,191 · $349/mo
• Expected delta: +$654/yr (+$54/mo · 18.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 77% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,240
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,828
• − Property taxes: −$3,537
• − Insurance: −$1,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,699
• − Management: −$1,699
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$6,662
• Taxable loss: −$6,630
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,591
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,022/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Comal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814730
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,792
• Composite: 51.79/100
• National rank: #1671
• State rank: #58 of 826 in TX

Livability — Canyon Lake

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #534
• US rank: #10441

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Canyon Lake, TX
• County: Comal County · 206,262 people
• City population: 42,159
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,959
• Household income: $83,853
• Rent vs Own: 15.2% rent · 84.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 402.0

Population outlook (Comal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,637 people
• By 2030: 199,911 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 249,436 · +42.0%
• By 2050: 299,430 · +70.5%
• By 2075: 423,857 · +141.3%
• By 2100: 512,048 · +191.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 10% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Comal

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.9pp toward D · 2008: -47.4pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+42.7 2016: R+50.1 2012: R+54.1 2008: R+47.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.36%
• Current HPI: 218.4633
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.20%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+122.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-18 Listed $245,000 Unlock MLS
• 2006-11-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-10-31 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2006-03-07 Listed $110,000 LERA
• 1993-12-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,537 · -7.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.