Sanpiper Plan · Willis, TX 77378

$280,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,107 sqft · SingleFamily · 252 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Sanpiper offers the perfect blend of open-concept living and private retreat spaces across 2 thoughtfully designed floors. With 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and over 2,100 square feet, this home is built for both everyday living and memorable gatherings.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 252 days

🏗️ New construction. The $280,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $335,952.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $281k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-600 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $249k (11.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (22.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (22.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#933 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, employment D+.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 710 active listings in the ZIP; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 252 days — a 12% lower offer ($247k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $217,912 (22.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 252 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.66%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $335,952
• List price: $280,990
• Delta: -16.36%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
982 Garden Path Dr	0.35mi	4/3.0	2,069 (-2%)	2mo	$294,990	$143	77
725 Ivory Creek Ct	0.05mi	4/3.0	2,356 (+12%)	1mo	$390,000	$166	75
957 Garden Path Dr	0.32mi	4/2.0	1,990 (-6%)	2mo	$289,990	$146	72
237 Draper Shadows Dr	0.32mi	4/3.0	2,241 (+6%)	2mo	$314,990	$141	71
973 Garden Path Dr	0.35mi	4/2.0	1,990 (-6%)	3mo	$282,990	$142	70
841 Village Brook Dr	0.24mi	4/3.0	2,318 (+10%)	1mo	$307,990	$133	69
845 Village Brook Dr	0.23mi	4/3.0	2,386 (+13%)	3mo	$297,990	$125	63
526 Cotton Patch Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,198 (+4%)	0mo	$365,000	$166	58
608 Crested Duck Ct	0.43mi	4/3.0	1,878 (-11%)	2mo	$351,900	$187	58
210 Brecon Buff Dr	0.64mi	4/3.0	1,965 (-7%)	3mo	$314,990	$160	55
303 Landes Trl	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,040 (-3%)	1mo	$339,990	$167	52
255 Brecon Buff Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,025 (-4%)	0mo	$349,990	$173	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-96,973
• Equity at exit: $50,091

10-year hold

• IRR: -49.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.60×
• Total profit: $-150,639
• Equity at exit: $29,047

Cash invested: $94,066 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77378

• Home prices YoY: -3.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 710
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,179 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,762
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$420 /mo · $5,039/yr
• Insurance: −$140
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $-600

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,939

Max offer price $249,104

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,988
• Closing costs: $10,079
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $280,990 Active 252 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $280,990 Active 251 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $280,990 Active 250 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $280,990 Active 249 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $280,990 Active 247 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $280,990 Active 243 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $280,990 Active 242 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $280,990 Active 241 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $280,990 Active 238 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $280,990 Active 237 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $280,990 Active 236 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $280,990 Active 235 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $280,990 Active 234 DOM
14. 2026-04-03
    price $280,490 256-char remark

    Show marketing remark (256 chars)

    The Sanpiper offers the perfect blend of open-concept living and private retreat spaces across 2 thoughtfully designed floors. With 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and over 2,100 square feet, this home is built for both everyday living and memorable gatherings.

15. 2026-03-27
    status Active 256-char remark

    Show marketing remark (256 chars)

    The Sanpiper offers the perfect blend of open-concept living and private retreat spaces across 2 thoughtfully designed floors. With 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and over 2,100 square feet, this home is built for both everyday living and memorable gatherings.

16. 2026-03-26
    historical 256-char remark

    Show marketing remark (256 chars)

    The Sanpiper offers the perfect blend of open-concept living and private retreat spaces across 2 thoughtfully designed floors. With 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and over 2,100 square feet, this home is built for both everyday living and memorable gatherings.

17. 2025-10-08
    listed $279,990 Active 256-char remark

    Show marketing remark (256 chars)

    The Sanpiper offers the perfect blend of open-concept living and private retreat spaces across 2 thoughtfully designed floors. With 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and over 2,100 square feet, this home is built for both everyday living and memorable gatherings.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,149
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,819
• − Property taxes: −$5,039
• − Insurance: −$1,680
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,092
• − Management: −$2,092
• − Depreciation: −$9,773
• Taxable loss: −$13,345
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,203
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,999/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home in Willis, TX, is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for both resale and rental value through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics
• Both New windows and doors — Enhances energy efficiency and curb appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New windows and doors — Enhances energy efficiency and curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Willis

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #933
• US rank: #16579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,629
• Household income: $71,143
• Rent vs Own: 25.5% rent · 74.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 402.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.25%
• Current HPI: 261.9673
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.98%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $280,490 Zillow
• 2026-03-27 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-03-26 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-10-08 Listed $279,990 Zillow