Sanpiper Plan · Willis, TX 77378

$280,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,107 sqft · SingleFamily · 303 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.2/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Sanpiper offers the perfect blend of open-concept living and private retreat spaces across 2 thoughtfully designed floors. With 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and over 2,100 square feet, this home is built for both everyday living and memorable gatherings.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 302 days

🏗️ New construction. The $280,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $336,209.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $281k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-755 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $227k (19.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (29.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (29.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#933 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: W Lloyd Meador El (math 45% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,155 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 617 students, 43% FRL); Robert P Brabham Middle (math 33% / reading 41%, grade F, #756 of 1,662 statewide, top 47%, 1,117 students, 52% FRL); Willis H S (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,521 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 838 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 303 days — a 12% lower offer ($247k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,599 (29.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 303 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.62%
• DSCR: 0.57
• GRM: 14.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $336,209
• List price: $280,990
• Delta: -16.42%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
725 Ivory Creek Ct	0.05mi	4/3.0	2,356 (+12%)	3mo	$390,000	$166	74
201 Crystal Bay Ln	0.14mi	4/2.5	2,357 (+12%)	2mo	$314,000	$133	72
841 Village Brook Dr	0.24mi	4/3.0	2,318 (+10%)	3mo	$307,990	$133	68
136 Wasatch Peaks Way	0.51mi	4/3.0	2,246 (+7%)	0mo	$324,990	$145	63
257 Hazy Pines Ln	0.16mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,386 (+13%)	2mo	$313,990	$132	62
526 Cotton Patch Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,198 (+4%)	2mo	$365,000	$166	57
522 Tawny Rim Dr	0.71mi	4/3.0	2,012 (-4%)	1mo	$329,900	$164	57
510 Abcot Ranger Ct	0.54mi	4/3.0	1,878 (-11%)	1mo	$399,900	$213	54
251 Mallards Rim Dr	0.55mi	4/3.0	1,878 (-11%)	0mo	$359,900	$192	54
303 Landes Trl	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,040 (-3%)	3mo	$339,990	$167	51
255 Brecon Buff Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,025 (-4%)	2mo	$349,990	$173	50
714 Campbell Crossing Ct	0.61mi	4/3.5	2,392 (+14%)	2mo	$433,900	$181	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -35.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-106,464
• Equity at exit: $50,130

10-year hold

• IRR: -63.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.81×
• Total profit: $-170,057
• Equity at exit: $29,069

Cash invested: $94,138 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 89 active · 44 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.6 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $323,990 ($157/sqft)
• Median days on market: 74 d
• This list price: 15% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +1.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77378

• Home prices YoY: -3.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 838
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,986 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,763
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$420 /mo · $5,043/yr
• Insurance: −$140
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$417
• Net cashflow: $-755

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,941

Max offer price $227,027

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-522	-5% $-638	+0% $-755	+5% $-871	+10% $-987
Rent	-10% $-911	-5% $-833	+0% $-755	+5% $-676	+10% $-598
Rate	-1.0pp $-585	-0.5pp $-669	base $-755	+0.5pp $-842	+1.0pp $-930

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,052
• Closing costs: $10,086
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
505 Hines Ave Apt B Willis, TX	3.0	2.5	1665	$1,550	$0.93	3d	1	0.85mi
10723 Sora Dr Willis, TX	4.0	2.5	1780	$1,875	$1.05	1d	1	1.10mi
210 Pine Cavern Dr Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1494	$1,669	$1.12	17d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $280,990 Active 303 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $280,990 Active 301 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $280,990 Active 300 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $280,990 Active 299 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $280,990 Active 298 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $280,990 Active 295 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $280,990 Active 293 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $280,990 Active 292 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $280,990 Active 290 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $280,990 Active 288 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $280,990 Active 287 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $280,990 Active 286 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $280,990 Active 285 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $280,990 Active 284 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $280,990 Active 282 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $280,990 Active 281 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $280,990 Active 280 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $280,990 Active 279 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $280,990 Active 278 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $280,990 Active 277 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $280,990 Active 276 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $280,990 Active 275 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $280,990 Active 274 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $280,990 Active 273 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $280,990 Active 271 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $280,990 Active 270 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $280,990 Active 269 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $280,990 Active 268 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $280,990 Active 267 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $280,990 Active 266 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $280,990 Active 265 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $280,990 Active 264 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $280,990 Active 263 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $280,990 Active 262 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $280,990 Active 261 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $280,990 Active 260 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $280,990 Active 258 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $280,990 Active 256 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $280,990 Active 255 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $280,990 Active 252 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $280,990 Active 251 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $280,990 Active 250 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $280,990 Active 249 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $280,990 Active 247 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $280,990 Active 243 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $280,990 Active 242 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $280,990 Active 241 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $280,990 Active 238 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $280,990 Active 237 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $280,990 Active 236 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,832
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,833
• − Property taxes: −$5,043
• − Insurance: −$1,681
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,907
• − Management: −$1,907
• − Depreciation: −$9,781
• Taxable loss: −$15,319
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,677
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,378/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $10,535–$31,605 screening

This single-family home in Willis, TX, is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for both resale and rental value through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New windows and doors — Enhances energy efficiency and curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 38/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary W Lloyd Meador El F TX #1,155/4,322 Nat'l #16,061/41,679 Middle Robert P Brabham Middle F TX #756/1,662 Nat'l #6,830/14,009 High Willis H S F TX #1,029/1,632 Nat'l #10,333/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Willis

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #933
• US rank: #16579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 38,421
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,629
• Household income: $71,143
• Rent vs Own: 25.5% rent · 74.5% own

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 19%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.25%
• Current HPI: 261.9673
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.98%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $280,490 Zillow
• 2026-03-27 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-03-26 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-10-08 Listed $279,990 Zillow