11 Christy Ave · South Cairo, NY 12414

$85,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured · 39 Days on market

Built 1985 Good condition Est $89k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.7/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home located in a desirable 55+mobile home park. Features include a spacious primary suite with ensuite bath, separate garden tub and shower, an additional full bath, dining room with built-in cabinets, cathedral ceiling, new laminate flooring, and a front desk/portch to enjoy. All appliances remain, including a like-new washer and dryer. Contents may be purchased separately at an additional cost. Current lot rent is 515/month; water and sewer are billed by usage. Park approval required. Not all lenders finance manufactured homes in parks, but financing contacts are available. Quick closing possible!

Key facts

• Built 1985
• Listed 38 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in a senior community
• HOA & community: Park lot rent: $550 per month (additional monthly fee)

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway (no carport)
• Utilities: Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Manufactured house / manufactured home; Living area reported from public records
• Construction: Structure type: Manufactured; Foundation and roof details not provided; Year built not provided
• Exterior features: Double wide home; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator; Dishwasher not listed
• Bedrooms: 5 total rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Flooring: Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Oil heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Porch
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade A — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Catskill Central School District (town): math 45% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #429 of 590 in NY (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Catskill Elementary School (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #1,195 of 2,108 statewide, top 60%, 574 students, 41% FRL); Catskill Middle School (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #587 of 729 statewide, top 81%, 303 students, 45% FRL); Catskill Senior High School (math 87% / reading 87%, grade A, #311 of 1,100 statewide, top 30%, 400 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools at 41% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 104 active listings in the ZIP; 97 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($588 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Greene County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $82,450 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 54.42%
• DSCR: 3.42
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $89,376
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15 Christy Ave	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,568 (0%)	2mo	$90,000	$57	96

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 67.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.83×
• Total profit: $115,068
• Equity at exit: $76,575

10-year hold

• IRR: 61.0%
• Equity multiple: 12.97×
• Total profit: $284,861
• Equity at exit: $165,136

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12414

• Home prices YoY: 11.9%
• Active inventory: 104
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,110 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$106 /mo · $1,275/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $1,079

Break-even live

Break-even rent $744

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 44%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $85,000 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 35 DOM

   Show marketing remark (661 chars)

   Beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home located in a desirable 55+mobile home park. Features include a spacious primary suite with ensuite bath, separate garden tub and shower, an additional full bath, dining room with built-in cabinets, cathedral ceiling, new laminate flooring, and a front desk/portch to enjoy. All appliances remain, including a like-new washer and dryer. Contents may be purchased separately at an additional cost. Current lot rent is 515/month; water and sewer are billed by usage. Park approval required. Not all lenders finance manufactured homes in parks, but financing contacts are available. Quick closing possible!

6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $85,000 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $85,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $85,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $85,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-11
    listed $85,000 Active 661-char remark

    Show marketing remark (661 chars)

    Beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home located in a desirable 55+mobile home park. Features include a spacious primary suite with ensuite bath, separate garden tub and shower, an additional full bath, dining room with built-in cabinets, cathedral ceiling, new laminate flooring, and a front desk/portch to enjoy. All appliances remain, including a like-new washer and dryer. Contents may be purchased separately at an additional cost. Current lot rent is 515/month; water and sewer are billed by usage. Park approval required. Not all lenders finance manufactured homes in parks, but financing contacts are available. Quick closing possible!

16. 2026-05-11
    listed $85,000 Active 661-char remark

    Show marketing remark (661 chars)

    Beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home located in a desirable 55+mobile home park. Features include a spacious primary suite with ensuite bath, separate garden tub and shower, an additional full bath, dining room with built-in cabinets, cathedral ceiling, new laminate flooring, and a front desk/portch to enjoy. All appliances remain, including a like-new washer and dryer. Contents may be purchased separately at an additional cost. Current lot rent is 515/month; water and sewer are billed by usage. Park approval required. Not all lenders finance manufactured homes in parks, but financing contacts are available. Quick closing possible!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,318
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,275
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,025
• − Management: −$2,025
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $12,333
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,960
• After-tax cash flow: $9,992/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 27 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home is in good condition with new laminate flooring and fresh paint. It is located in a desirable 55+mobile home park and is move-in ready.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and make the home more attractive to potential buyers.
• Resale Replace the ceiling tiles in the living room and dining room — New ceiling tiles can improve the overall look and feel of the living spaces, making the home more appealing to potential buyers.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint the exterior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and make the home more attractive to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Replace the ceiling tiles in the living room and dining room — New ceiling tiles can improve the overall look and feel of the living spaces, making the home more appealing to potential buyers. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Catskill Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3606720
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $44,960
• Composite: 40.63/100
• National rank: #3685
• State rank: #429 of 590 in NY

Livability — South Cairo

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Greene County · 10,169 people
• City population: 601
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 10,169
• Household income: $73,036
• Rent vs Own: 31.7% rent · 68.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 318.0

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 44,963 people
• By 2030: 43,126 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 38,756 · -13.8%
• By 2050: 34,913 · -22.4%
• By 2075: 28,156 · -37.4%
• By 2100: 22,296 · -50.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 7%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 3% Iranian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Mexico
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: R (+17.0) · D 41.5% · R 58.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.1pp toward R · 2008: -9.9pp · 2024: -17.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.0 2020: R+15.6 2016: R+27.4 2012: R+11.1 2008: R+9.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 52.47%
• Current HPI: 494.3394
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Pending — HVCRMLS
• 2026-06-04 Contingent — HVCRMLS
• 2026-06-04 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-11 Listed $85,000 HVCRMLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $85,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-11 Listed $85,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid