Summerton Plan · Mont Belvieu, TX 77523

$419,990

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,052 sqft · SingleFamily · 177 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Cash flow +5.7/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

We're building something special at Blue Heron in Mont Belvieu. Just 33 miles from downtown Houston, this new construction Chesmar Homes community offers the perfect mix of serene small-town living and easy access to all the conveniences of the city. Explore our thoughtfully designed, energy-efficient homes with spacious primary retreats, all while enjoying close proximity to work, shopping, and recreation. These new Mont Belvieu homes feature the perfect blend of modern living and community charm and are located within the A+ rated Barbers Hill ISD. Our homes offer the ideal balance of comfort, convenience, and low tax rate, all while maintaining that cherished small-town atmosphere.

Key facts

• New construction
• 2 parking spots
• Listed 176 days

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• ENERGY EFFICIENT HOMES
• SPACIOUS PRIMARY RETREATS
• A+ RATED BARBERS HILL ISD

🏗️ New construction. The $419,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $437,748.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $420k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-905 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $307k (26.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $268k (36.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $268k (36.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#438 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Barbers Hill ISD (rural): math 72% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #12 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 1127 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 85d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 629 units permitted in Chambers County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chambers County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 177 days — a 12% lower offer ($370k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $268,440 (36.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 177 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.86%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 13.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $437,748
• List price: $419,990
• Delta: -4.06%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14822 Mission Ave	0.10mi	3/2.5	2,079 (+1%)	1mo	$445,953	$215	90
9910 Red Knot	0.03mi	3/2.0	2,079 (+1%)	6mo	$432,430	$208	87
14946 Buffalo Head St	0.19mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,052 (0%)	1mo	$440,000	$214	85
9918 Red Knot St	0.03mi	3/3.0	2,182 (+6%)	6mo	$434,400	$199	83
15027 Mission Ave	0.21mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,052 (0%)	5mo	$463,000	$226	81
14823 Mission Ave	0.09mi	3/3.0	2,182 (+6%)	6mo	$441,061	$202	80
14811 Mission Ave	0.09mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,147 (+5%)	7mo	$349,990	$163	77
15023 Gulfstream Park Ave	0.32mi	3/2.0	2,047 (-0%)	5mo	$400,000	$195	76
14827 Mission Ave	0.09mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,316 (+13%)	6mo	$444,424	$192	63
15322 Lake Front Dr	0.70mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,065 (+1%)	1mo	$410,000	$199	61
14942 Buffalo Head St	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,807 (-12%)	3mo	$430,000	$238	59
7111 Hillside Ave	0.42mi	3/2.0	2,216 (+8%)	6mo	$389,000	$176	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-127,363
• Equity at exit: $65,270

10-year hold

• IRR: -33.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.47×
• Total profit: $-180,206
• Equity at exit: $37,848

Cash invested: $122,570 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 31 active · 15 under contract
• Months of supply: 13.3 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $420,990 ($190/sqft)
• Median days on market: 65 d
• This list price: 45% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +12.3% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77523

• Home prices YoY: -31.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 1127
• Price-to-rent: 13.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,684 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,296
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$547 /mo · $6,566/yr
• Insurance: −$182
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$564
• Net cashflow: $-905

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,829

Max offer price $306,865

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-602	-5% $-753	+0% $-905	+5% $-1,056	+10% $-1,207
Rent	-10% $-1,117	-5% $-1,011	+0% $-905	+5% $-798	+10% $-692
Rate	-1.0pp $-684	-0.5pp $-793	base $-905	+0.5pp $-1,018	+1.0pp $-1,133

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $109,437
• Closing costs: $13,132
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14915 Lake Shore Ave Mont Belvieu, TX	4.0	4.0	2569	$2,321	$0.90	85d	1	0.37mi
7307 Hillside Ave Baytown, TX	4.0	2.5	2289	$2,756	$1.20	112d	1	0.52mi
15122 Arlington Park Ave Mont Belvieu, TX	4.0	3.5	2841	$2,676	$0.94	45d	1	0.55mi
7514 Oakmont Ave Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1932	$2,611	$1.35	115d	1	0.66mi
15334 Lake Front Dr Mont Belvieu, TX	4.0	2.0	2047	$3,000	$1.47	37d	1	0.74mi
15551 Blue Lake Dr Mont Belvieu, TX	4.0	3.0	2731	$3,000	$1.10	72d	1	1.02mi
131 Brazos Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1857	$2,211	$1.19	99d	1	1.46mi
15218 Arnold Cove, TX	4.0	2.0	1751	$2,300	$1.31	83d	1	1.50mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $419,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Home design: New construction plan named SummertonSingle-family property (Plan)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (2052 sq ft total living area)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $419,990 Active 177 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $419,990 Active 176 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $419,990 Active 175 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $419,990 Active 174 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $419,990 Active 173 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $419,990 Active 171 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $419,990 Active 170 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $419,990 Active 169 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $419,990 Active 168 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $419,990 Active 167 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $419,990 Active 166 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $419,990 Active 165 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $419,990 Active 164 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $419,990 Active 163 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $419,990 Active 162 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $419,990 Active 161 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $419,990 Active 160 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $419,990 Active 159 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $419,990 Active 158 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $419,990 Active 157 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $419,990 Active 156 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $419,990 Active 155 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $419,990 Active 154 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $419,990 Active 153 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $419,990 Active 152 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $419,990 Active 151 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $419,990 Active 150 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $419,990 Active 149 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $419,990 Active 148 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $419,990 Active 147 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $419,990 Active 146 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $419,990 Active 145 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $419,990 Active 144 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $419,990 Active 143 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $419,990 Active 142 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $419,990 Active 141 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $419,990 Active 140 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $419,990 Active 139 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $419,990 Active 138 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $419,990 Active 137 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $419,990 Active 136 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $419,990 Active 135 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $419,990 Active 134 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $419,990 Active 133 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $419,990 Active 132 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $419,990 Active 131 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $419,990 Active 130 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $419,990 Active 129 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $419,990 Active 128 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $419,990 Active 127 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 66% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,213
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,521
• − Property taxes: −$6,566
• − Insurance: −$2,189
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,577
• − Management: −$2,577
• − Depreciation: −$12,734
• Taxable loss: −$18,951
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,548
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,306/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It's move-in ready and would benefit from minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and modernize the lighting.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value ↑
• Resale Replace light fixtures — Modern lighting can improve the home's aesthetic ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and can be a selling point ↑

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Barbers Hill ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809450
• Math proficiency: 72% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $87,257
• Composite: 61.73/100
• National rank: #737
• State rank: #12 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Mont Belvieu

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #438
• US rank: #8944

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mont Belvieu, TX
• County: Chambers County · 46,946 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,186
• Household income: $124,188
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Chambers County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,946 people
• By 2030: 51,094 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 59,578 · +26.9%
• By 2050: 68,318 · +45.5%
• By 2075: 90,485 · +92.7%
• By 2100: 104,885 · +123.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 11% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

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Political lean MEDSL · Chambers

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.6) · D 16.8% · R 82.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -51.2pp · 2024: -65.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.6 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+61.1 2008: R+51.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.33%
• Current HPI: 222.6999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.42%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $419,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Home design: New construction plan named SummertonSingle-family property (Plan)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (2052 sq ft total living area)