107 SW Mcgriff Ln · Lake City, FL 32024

$170,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,052 sqft · Manufactured public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1998 0.56 ac lot Est $291k · 42% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Affordable and cute sums up this large manufactured home! Offering abundant storage throughout, this home boasts 2,052 sq. ft. of heated and cooled space with 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, a large laundry room, a bonus room that could serve as a 2nd family room, office, gym or whatever your heart desires. Split floor plan with 3 bedrooms on one end and a large primary bedroom on the other which includes dual vanities and a soaker tub along with a huge walk-in closet. The kitchen has a large island, ample cabinet space and flows seamlessly into the dining room ensuring that cooking and entertaining is a breeze. Outside features a fenced back yard, 2 storage sheds, a 2 car carport and a 30/50 a

Key facts

• Fenced back yard
• Split floor plan
• Bonus room

Tags

• ABUNDANT STORAGE
• LARGE LAUNDRY ROOM
• BONUS ROOM
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• DEDICATED DINING ROOM
• FENCED BACK YARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Private well water
• Home design: Manufactured home; Residential property
• Construction: Frame construction; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Wood fencing; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Refrigerator; Microwave
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Central air; Central heating; Electric heating

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $467 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $165k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 3.8% in Lake City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#304 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F, employment F.
• Columbia (town): math 53% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #25 of 73 in FL (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 206 active listings in the ZIP; 178 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $57k; list at $170k implies a 198% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,900 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.76%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $291,384
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
124 SW Dublin Gln	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,966 (-4%)	9mo	$219,000	$111	74
183 SW Ascena Ter	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,836 (-10%)	12mo	$260,000	$142	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.57×
• Total profit: $122,248
• Equity at exit: $153,149

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.4%
• Equity multiple: 8.07×
• Total profit: $336,512
• Equity at exit: $330,273

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32024

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Active inventory: 206
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,898 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$70 /mo · $845/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $467

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,307

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $563	-5% $515	+0% $467	+5% $419	+10% $370
Rent	-10% $317	-5% $392	+0% $467	+5% $542	+10% $617
Rate	-1.0pp $552	-0.5pp $510	base $467	+0.5pp $423	+1.0pp $378

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $170,000 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $179,900 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,900 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,900 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,900 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,900 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $179,900 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $179,900 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,900 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $179,900 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $179,900 Active 18 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $845 · $70/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,411 · $118/mo
• Expected delta: +$566/yr (+$47/mo · 67.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,775
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$845
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,822
• − Management: −$1,822
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable income: $2,968
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$712
• After-tax cash flow: $4,887/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia
• NCES district ID: 1200360
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $40,053
• Composite: 44.74/100
• National rank: #2750
• State rank: #25 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake City

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #304
• US rank: #5154

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 40,507
• Population (ZIP): 20,644

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,129 people
• By 2030: 67,501 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 65,465 · -3.9%
• By 2050: 63,058 · -7.4%
• By 2075: 56,291 · -17.4%
• By 2100: 45,243 · -33.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Portuguese 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.2) · D 24.6% · R 74.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.8pp · 2024: -50.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.2 2020: R+45.2 2016: R+44.5 2012: R+36.7 2008: R+33.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.05%
• Current HPI: 269.4659
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+80.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Relisted — NFMLS
• 2026-06-05 Price Changed $179,900 NFMLS
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $169,000 NFMLS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $179,000 NFMLS
• 2014-12-23 Sold (Public Records) $57,000 Public Records
• 2005-08-24 Sold (Public Records) $99,900 Public Records

Property tax history

-3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $845 · -0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.