7530 E Lake St · North Bay, NY 13308

$170,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,969 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 55 Days on market

Built 1980 0.35 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Spacious raised ranch near the north shore of Oneida Lake, built in 1980 with a 1 year old roof. The lower level features a family room with pine paneling, bedroom, office, full bath and an additional room that connects with the garage. Upstairs offers an open living and dining area, kitchen with breakfast bar, sliding doors to a large deck, three bedrooms, and two full baths including one in the primary suite, and plenty of storage for all your belongings. The attached garage with new overhead door and workshop space adds convenience. The yard is large and open, perfect for entertaining. This home is steps from the Oneida Lake, close to snowmobile trails, and only 5 minutes to Sylvan Beach

Key facts

• Large deck
• Workshop space
• Attached garage

Tags

• RAISED RANCH
• OPEN LIVING AND DINING AREA
• KITCHEN WITH BREAKFAST BAR
• LARGE DECK
• ATTACHED GARAGE
• WORKSHOP SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-6 ($-77/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $169k (0.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (1.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $165k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Camden Central School District (rural): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #504 of 590 in NY (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 204 units permitted in Oneida County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Oneida County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.

Recommended offer $164,900 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.16%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.94×
• Total profit: $92,302
• Equity at exit: $153,149

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.72×
• Total profit: $272,378
• Equity at exit: $330,273

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13308

• Home prices YoY: 28.6%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,680 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$371 /mo · $4,451/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $-6

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,688

Max offer price $168,870

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2025-12-22
   status Pending
2. 2025-11-26
   status Active
3. 2025-10-07
   status Pending
4. 2025-09-08
   listed $170,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,451 · $371/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,451 · $371/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,155
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$4,451
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,612
• − Management: −$1,612
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable loss: −$2,839
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$681
• After-tax cash flow: $605/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Camden Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3606240
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $48,686
• Composite: 35.15/100
• National rank: #5008
• State rank: #504 of 590 in NY

Livability — North Bay

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Bay, NY
• City population: 35
• Population (ZIP): 4,239

Population outlook (Oneida County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 225,223 people
• By 2030: 220,384 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 209,071 · -7.2%
• By 2050: 197,920 · -12.1%
• By 2075: 175,541 · -22.1%
• By 2100: 148,491 · -34.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 3% Subsaharan African 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oneida

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.3) · D 39.4% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.2pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -21.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.3 2020: R+15.5 2016: R+21.1 2012: R+5.3 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 73.19%
• Current HPI: 329.3091
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-22 Pending — CNYIS
• 2025-11-26 Relisted — CNYIS
• 2025-10-07 Pending — CNYIS
• 2025-09-08 Listed $170,000 CNYIS

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,451 · -1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.