415 E 3rd St · Erie, PA 16507

$120,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,592 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1907 5,088 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Great 3 unit income producer. Long term tenants. Off street parking. Separate utilities.

Key facts

• Bayfront attractions
• Income potential
• Near downtown

Tags

• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
• STRONG RENTAL APPEAL
• INCOME POTENTIAL
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED
• NEAR DOWNTOWN
• BAYFRONT ATTRACTIONS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Current rents reported: $675 (2-bed), $600 (3-bed), $500 (1-bed); Tax amount reported (annual): $1,540

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential income property; Multi-family; Two levels; Zoned R-2
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Asphalt roof; Paved road access

Interior

• Bedrooms: Two-bedroom unit; Three-bedroom unit; One-bedroom unit
• Bathrooms: One bathroom in each unit (three separate units)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Forced air heating; No cooling

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.2% vs local median 5.2% in Erie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Erie City SD (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #510 of 539 in PA (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 39 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,782/mo this rent would consume 100% of the median local household income ($33k/yr) (locally 776% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.2% appreciation + 0.1% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $120k implies a 50% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1907 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $118,200 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1907 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.55%
• DSCR: 3.20
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $77,760
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
352 E 2nd St	0.12mi	6/3.0 (+1)	2,576 (-1%)	10mo	$130,000	$50	76
315 Parade St	0.04mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,310 (-11%)	2mo	$151,500	$66	74
452-454 E 9th St	0.43mi	6/3.0 (+1)	2,522 (-3%)	3mo	$105,000	$42	64
346 E 2nd St	0.13mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,263 (-13%)	10mo	$125,346	$55	59
646 E 8th St	0.48mi	5/2.0	2,347 (-10%)	4mo	$60,000	$26	58
742 E 10th St	0.66mi	5/2.0	2,514 (-3%)	8mo	$60,000	$24	57
555 E 7th St	0.37mi	6/2.0 (+1)	2,456 (-5%)	15mo	$65,000	$26	56
616-618 East 6th St	0.33mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,686 (+4%)	21mo	$80,000	$30	52
753-755 E 9th St	0.65mi	6/2.0 (+1)	2,516 (-3%)	14mo	$42,500	$17	49
549 E 12th St	0.72mi	6/2.0 (+1)	2,376 (-8%)	5mo	$97,500	$41	44
923 E 7th St	0.72mi	5/2.0	2,852 (+10%)	11mo	$80,150	$28	40
829-31 Ash St	0.49mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,240 (-14%)	17mo	$50,000	$22	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.17% appreciation · 0.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 53.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.05×
• Total profit: $102,552
• Equity at exit: $62,034

10-year hold

• IRR: 50.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.64×
• Total profit: $223,051
• Equity at exit: $102,425

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16507

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,782 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$131 /mo · $1,573/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$584
• Net cashflow: $1,387

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,026

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 45%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,455	-5% $1,421	+0% $1,387	+5% $1,353	+10% $1,319
Rent	-10% $1,168	-5% $1,277	+0% $1,387	+5% $1,497	+10% $1,607
Rate	-1.0pp $1,448	-0.5pp $1,418	base $1,387	+0.5pp $1,356	+1.0pp $1,325

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$1,950
1× unit	1	1	$831
Total (3 units)			$2,782

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $120,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $120,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $120,000 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $120,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $120,000 Active 2 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    remarks 379-char remark
14. 2026-06-03
    listed $120,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,573 · $131/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,735 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: +$161/yr (+$13/mo · 10.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,384
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,573
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,671
• − Management: −$2,671
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $15,656
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,758
• After-tax cash flow: $12,891/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Erie City SD
• NCES district ID: 4209300
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $33,625
• Composite: 12.59/100
• National rank: #9617
• State rank: #510 of 539 in PA

Livability — Erie

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #840

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Erie, PA
• County: Erie County · 92,215 people
• City population: 92,215
• Metro: Erie, PA
• Population (ZIP): 8,597
• Household income: $33,361
• Rent vs Own: 66.2% rent · 33.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 776.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 24% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Scotch-Irish 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Vietnamese 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.17%
• Current HPI: 163.92
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.10%
• Metro: Erie, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+166.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $120,000 GEBOR
• 2024-06-14 Sold (MLS) $80,000 GEBOR
• 2024-05-13 Delisted — GEBOR
• 2024-05-11 Listed $80,000 GEBOR
• 2022-12-14 Sold (Public Records) $37,500 Public Records
• 2022-12-08 Sold (MLS) $37,500 GEBOR
• 2022-11-09 Delisted — GEBOR
• 2022-11-09 Listed $45,000 GEBOR

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,573 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.