4907 38th St · Lubbock, TX 79414

$132,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,060 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 53 Days on market

Built 1953 6,375 sqft lot $125/sqft · 25% above area Est $162k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2/1 main house in central Lubbock with a fireplace and a 1/1 back house. Main house offers 2 bedrooms and a spacious living room with a fireplace and is currently rented. Contact listing agent for more info about the property. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• 6,375 sq ft lot
• Built 1953
• Listed 53 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Additional parking available; Off-street parking; On-street parking
• Utilities: Public maintained road frontage on a city street
• Home design: Single-family residence; Single story
• Construction: Wood siding; Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built on a 0.15-acre lot
• Exterior features: Fenced front and back yard; No additional exterior features listed

Interior

• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Ceiling fans

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $132k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $93 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $122k (7.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $122k (7.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 89 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $913 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,239 (7.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.02%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $161,996
• List price: $132,000
• Delta: -18.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-18,394
• Equity at exit: $19,682

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-19,852
• Equity at exit: $11,413

Cash invested: $36,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79414

• Home prices YoY: -27.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 89
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,222 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$692
• Tax from tax record: −$125 /mo · $1,504/yr
• Insurance: −$55
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$257
• Net cashflow: $93

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,105

Max offer price $132,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,000
• Closing costs: $3,960
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4907 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,100	$1.10	43d	1	0.10mi
4817 40th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1254	$1,300	$1.04	13d	1	0.13mi
4907 41st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1196	$1,200	$1.00	43d	1	0.16mi
4907 36th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1020	$1,095	$1.07	13d	1	0.16mi
4818 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1285	$1,400	$1.09	21d	1	0.21mi
4801 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1424	$1,275	$0.90	21d	1	0.23mi
5105 36th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	788	$900	$1.14	21d	1	0.27mi
4815 43rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1282	$1,500	$1.17	21d	1	0.29mi
5024 35th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1364	$1,300	$0.95	21d	1	0.31mi
4702 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	900	$1,150	$1.28	13d	1	0.32mi
4803 43rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,200	$0.85	21d	1	0.32mi
5106 35th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	840	$900	$1.07	21d	1	0.33mi
4819 44th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,300	$0.92	43d	1	0.35mi
4707 42nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1053	$1,049	$1.00	13d	1	0.35mi
4708 43rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1249	$1,350	$1.08	43d	1	0.37mi
5101 44th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1160	$1,350	$1.16	21d	1	0.40mi
5214 38th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	922	$825	$0.89	43d	1	0.40mi
5304 38th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	922	$825	$0.89	43d	1	0.42mi
4619 43rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1404	$1,500	$1.07	43d	1	0.43mi
5306 38th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	922	$825	$0.89	43d	1	0.44mi
4916 46th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1377	$1,450	$1.05	13d	1	0.44mi
5002 46th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1369	$1,450	$1.06	43d	1	0.44mi
2902 Vicksburg Ave Lubbock, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	750	$710	$0.95	13d	3	0.52mi
3333 Toledo Ave Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0–1.5	924	$741	$0.80	13d	7	0.53mi
4926 48th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1354	$1,500	$1.11	21d	1	0.56mi
4510 35th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	888	$750	$0.84	21d	1	0.57mi
4510 35th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	888	$750	$0.84	43d	1	0.57mi
4430 33rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,100	$0.78	43d	1	0.62mi
4601 32nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	928	$995	$1.07	13d	1	0.63mi
4409 38th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1000	$1,350	$1.35	13d	1	0.64mi
4413 40th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,350	$1.17	21d	1	0.64mi
5415 42nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1417	$1,450	$1.02	21d	1	0.69mi
4602 50th St Lubbock, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1080	$1,368	$1.27	13d	9	0.70mi
5302 48th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,450	$1.06	21d	1	0.70mi
4425 31st St Unit Fs Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1000	$899	$0.90	21d	1	0.70mi
4705 Albany Ave Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	926	$742	$0.80	13d	5	0.71mi
4423 31st St Unit 1 FS Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1024	$885	$0.86	21d	1	0.71mi
5406 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$695	$0.50	43d	1	0.76mi
3506 Peoria Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	750	$625	$0.83	13d	1	0.77mi
5204 50th St Lubbock, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0	1050	$1,150	$1.10	13d	2	0.77mi

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $132,000 Active 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $132,000 Active 52 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $132,000 Active 51 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $132,000 Active 50 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $132,000 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $132,000 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $132,000 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $132,000 Active 44 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $132,000 Active 43 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $132,000 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $132,000 Active 39 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $132,000 Active 38 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $132,000 Active 37 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $132,000 Active 36 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $132,000 Active 35 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $132,000 Active 34 DOM
17. 2026-04-26
    listed $132,000 Active 406-char remark
18. 2025-11-05
    soldstatus
19. 2024-07-16
    soldstatus Closed 255-char remark

    Show marketing remark (255 chars)

    2/1 main house in central Lubbock with a fireplace and a 1/1 back house. Main house offers 2 bedrooms and a spacious living room with a fireplace and is currently rented. Contact listing agent for more info about the property. Schedule your showing today!

20. 2024-06-26
    status Pending 255-char remark

    Show marketing remark (255 chars)

    2/1 main house in central Lubbock with a fireplace and a 1/1 back house. Main house offers 2 bedrooms and a spacious living room with a fireplace and is currently rented. Contact listing agent for more info about the property. Schedule your showing today!

21. 2024-06-18
    listed $85,000 Active 255-char remark

    Show marketing remark (255 chars)

    2/1 main house in central Lubbock with a fireplace and a 1/1 back house. Main house offers 2 bedrooms and a spacious living room with a fireplace and is currently rented. Contact listing agent for more info about the property. Schedule your showing today!

22. 2024-04-22
    price $95,000
23. 2023-12-12
    price $105,000
24. 2023-11-22
    price $115,000
25. 2023-05-24
    price $130,000
26. 2019-07-03
    soldstatus
27. 2014-05-02
    soldstatus
28. 2007-10-15
    soldstatus
29. 1999-11-24
    soldstatus
30. 1996-10-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,504 · $125/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,416 · $201/mo
• Expected delta: +$912/yr (+$76/mo · 60.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,669
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,394
• − Property taxes: −$1,504
• − Insurance: −$660
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,173
• − Management: −$1,173
• − Depreciation: −$3,840
• Taxable loss: −$1,076
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$258
• After-tax cash flow: $1,376/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,596
• Household income: $49,057
• Rent vs Own: 65.4% rent · 34.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1330.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 39% Two or more races 21% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 16%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.31%
• Current HPI: 247.7963
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.56%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.5% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Listed $132,000 LARMLS
• 2025-11-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-07-16 Sold (MLS) — LARMLS
• 2024-06-26 Pending — LARMLS
• 2024-06-18 Listed $85,000 LARMLS
• 2024-04-22 Price Changed $95,000 LARMLS
• 2023-12-12 Price Changed $105,000 LARMLS
• 2023-11-22 Price Changed $115,000 LARMLS
• 2023-05-24 Price Changed $130,000 LARMLS
• 2019-07-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-05-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-10-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-11-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1996-10-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,504 · -30.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.