6501 Big Daddy Dr · Upper Grand Lagoon, FL 32407

$135,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 910 sqft · Manufactured public records · 75 Days on market

Built 1985 3,485 sqft lot $148/sqft · 45% below area Est $248k · 45% under ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.5/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy coastal living at its best in this recently updated 3 bedroom 2 bathroom mobile home located in desirable Panama City Beach. Just a short walk to a convenient boat ramp and Bayside Marina, this property offers easy access to North Bay, perfect for boating, fishing, and soaking in beautiful waterfront sunsets. Inside, you'll find a comfortable and functional layout with a spacious living area, a bright kitchen with ample cabinet space, and a split bedroom floor plan for added privacy. Whether you're looking for a full time residence, fishing camp, vacation getaway, or investment opportunity, this home offers location, convenience, and value. Don't miss your chance to own a slice of paradise just minutes from the bay!

Key facts

• Bright kitchen
• Bayside marina
• Spacious living area

Tags

• BOAT RAMP
• BAYSIDE MARINA
• WATERFRONT SUNSETS
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA
• BRIGHT KITCHEN
• AMPLE CABINET SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $318 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $127k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.9% vs local median 3.2% in Upper Grand Lagoon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#583 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living B+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 702 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,900 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.64%
• DSCR: 2.05
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $247,584
• List price: $135,000
• Delta: -45.47%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-7,134
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-1,419
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32407

• Home prices YoY: -29.5%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 702
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,956 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$37 /mo · $439/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $318

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,554

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6728 Sunrise Dr Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	966	$1,600	$1.66	13d	1	0.22mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-01
   status $135,000 Pending 75 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $135,000 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-05-30
   days on market $135,000 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-05-20
   price $139,900 731-char remark

   Show marketing remark (731 chars)

   Enjoy coastal living at its best in this recently updated 3 bedroom 2 bathroom mobile home located in desirable Panama City Beach. Just a short walk to a convenient boat ramp and Bayside Marina, this property offers easy access to North Bay, perfect for boating, fishing, and soaking in beautiful waterfront sunsets. Inside, you'll find a comfortable and functional layout with a spacious living area, a bright kitchen with ample cabinet space, and a split bedroom floor plan for added privacy. Whether you're looking for a full time residence, fishing camp, vacation getaway, or investment opportunity, this home offers location, convenience, and value. Don't miss your chance to own a slice of paradise just minutes from the bay!

5. 2026-05-16
   price $142,500 731-char remark

   Show marketing remark (731 chars)

   Enjoy coastal living at its best in this recently updated 3 bedroom 2 bathroom mobile home located in desirable Panama City Beach. Just a short walk to a convenient boat ramp and Bayside Marina, this property offers easy access to North Bay, perfect for boating, fishing, and soaking in beautiful waterfront sunsets. Inside, you'll find a comfortable and functional layout with a spacious living area, a bright kitchen with ample cabinet space, and a split bedroom floor plan for added privacy. Whether you're looking for a full time residence, fishing camp, vacation getaway, or investment opportunity, this home offers location, convenience, and value. Don't miss your chance to own a slice of paradise just minutes from the bay!

6. 2026-05-13
   price $147,500 731-char remark

   Show marketing remark (731 chars)

   Enjoy coastal living at its best in this recently updated 3 bedroom 2 bathroom mobile home located in desirable Panama City Beach. Just a short walk to a convenient boat ramp and Bayside Marina, this property offers easy access to North Bay, perfect for boating, fishing, and soaking in beautiful waterfront sunsets. Inside, you'll find a comfortable and functional layout with a spacious living area, a bright kitchen with ample cabinet space, and a split bedroom floor plan for added privacy. Whether you're looking for a full time residence, fishing camp, vacation getaway, or investment opportunity, this home offers location, convenience, and value. Don't miss your chance to own a slice of paradise just minutes from the bay!

7. 2026-05-06
   price $151,500 731-char remark

   Show marketing remark (731 chars)

   Enjoy coastal living at its best in this recently updated 3 bedroom 2 bathroom mobile home located in desirable Panama City Beach. Just a short walk to a convenient boat ramp and Bayside Marina, this property offers easy access to North Bay, perfect for boating, fishing, and soaking in beautiful waterfront sunsets. Inside, you'll find a comfortable and functional layout with a spacious living area, a bright kitchen with ample cabinet space, and a split bedroom floor plan for added privacy. Whether you're looking for a full time residence, fishing camp, vacation getaway, or investment opportunity, this home offers location, convenience, and value. Don't miss your chance to own a slice of paradise just minutes from the bay!

8. 2026-04-14
   price $154,900 731-char remark

   Show marketing remark (731 chars)

   Enjoy coastal living at its best in this recently updated 3 bedroom 2 bathroom mobile home located in desirable Panama City Beach. Just a short walk to a convenient boat ramp and Bayside Marina, this property offers easy access to North Bay, perfect for boating, fishing, and soaking in beautiful waterfront sunsets. Inside, you'll find a comfortable and functional layout with a spacious living area, a bright kitchen with ample cabinet space, and a split bedroom floor plan for added privacy. Whether you're looking for a full time residence, fishing camp, vacation getaway, or investment opportunity, this home offers location, convenience, and value. Don't miss your chance to own a slice of paradise just minutes from the bay!

9. 2026-03-27
   price $155,400 731-char remark

   Show marketing remark (731 chars)

   Enjoy coastal living at its best in this recently updated 3 bedroom 2 bathroom mobile home located in desirable Panama City Beach. Just a short walk to a convenient boat ramp and Bayside Marina, this property offers easy access to North Bay, perfect for boating, fishing, and soaking in beautiful waterfront sunsets. Inside, you'll find a comfortable and functional layout with a spacious living area, a bright kitchen with ample cabinet space, and a split bedroom floor plan for added privacy. Whether you're looking for a full time residence, fishing camp, vacation getaway, or investment opportunity, this home offers location, convenience, and value. Don't miss your chance to own a slice of paradise just minutes from the bay!

10. 2026-03-17
    listed $159,900 Active 731-char remark

    Show marketing remark (731 chars)

    Enjoy coastal living at its best in this recently updated 3 bedroom 2 bathroom mobile home located in desirable Panama City Beach. Just a short walk to a convenient boat ramp and Bayside Marina, this property offers easy access to North Bay, perfect for boating, fishing, and soaking in beautiful waterfront sunsets. Inside, you'll find a comfortable and functional layout with a spacious living area, a bright kitchen with ample cabinet space, and a split bedroom floor plan for added privacy. Whether you're looking for a full time residence, fishing camp, vacation getaway, or investment opportunity, this home offers location, convenience, and value. Don't miss your chance to own a slice of paradise just minutes from the bay!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $439 · $37/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,120 · $93/mo
• Expected delta: +$682/yr (+$57/mo · 155.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,476
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$439
• − Insurance: −$5,794
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,878
• − Management: −$1,878
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $1,998
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$480
• After-tax cash flow: $3,339/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Upper Grand Lagoon

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #583
• US rank: #11085

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Upper Grand Lagoon, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 18,326
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 16,404
• Household income: $80,831
• Rent vs Own: 43.6% rent · 56.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 939.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 10% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.39%
• Current HPI: 277.8875
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.25%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-12.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $139,900 CPARMLS
• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $142,500 CPARMLS
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $147,500 CPARMLS
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $151,500 CPARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $154,900 CPARMLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $155,400 CPARMLS
• 2026-03-17 Listed $159,900 CPARMLS

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $439 · +6.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.