5216 Third St · Dayton, OH 45417

$65,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,212 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 200 Days on market

Built 1925 $54/sqft · 24% above area Est $52k · 24% over ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath bungalow offers 1,212 sq ft of comfortable living space and immediate income potential. The home features a spacious main level with two bedrooms, an inviting living area, and a large bath. The third bedroom is a finished attic suite, ideal for additional living space.

Key facts

• Built 1925
• Listed 200 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $373 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($999 rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $57k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.2% vs local median 7.3% in Dayton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#716 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, commute F.
• Dayton City (urban): math 12% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #641 of 656 in OH (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: River'S Edge Montessori Elementary School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,193 of 1,584 statewide, top 76%, 494 students, 0% FRL); Wogaman Middle School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #645 of 654 statewide, top 99%, 364 students, 0% FRL); Belmont High School (math 5% / reading 20%, grade F, #720 of 781 statewide, top 93%, 1,100 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 74% district-wide (74 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.1%/yr); 140 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 907 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (416 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($37k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.1% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 200 days — a 12% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $57,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 200 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.57%
• DSCR: 2.09
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $52,500
• List price: $65,000
• Delta: 23.81%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4909 W 3rd St	0.24mi	2/1.0	1,212 (0%)	8mo	$53,500	$44	82
5221 W 3rd St	0.04mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,168 (-4%)	11mo	$115,000	$98	78
236 Elmhurst Rd	0.69mi	2/1.0	1,245 (+3%)	2mo	$54,900	$44	62
35 Bluecrest Ave	0.07mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,080 (-11%)	18mo	$38,000	$35	58
4416 Midway Ave	0.65mi	2/1.0	1,160 (-4%)	10mo	$124,950	$108	54
128 Holland Ave	0.36mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,153 (-5%)	19mo	$142,000	$123	54
4643 Laurel Dr	0.73mi	2/1.5	1,150 (-5%)	7mo	$47,000	$41	50
4530 Chesapeake Ave	0.50mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,364 (+12%)	3mo	$65,500	$48	48
4531 Chesapeake Ave	0.51mi	2/1.0	1,050 (-13%)	9mo	$79,000	$75	46
4505 Greenleaf Dr	0.52mi	2/1.0	1,068 (-12%)	18mo	$110,000	$103	41
658 Crown Ave	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,242 (+2%)	23mo	$125,000	$101	34
346 Geneva Rd	0.70mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,037 (-14%)	11mo	$90,000	$87	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.06% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.78×
• Total profit: $14,273
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.61×
• Total profit: $47,482
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45417

• Home prices YoY: -32.3%
• Rents YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 140
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $999 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $580/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$210
• Net cashflow: $373

Break-even live

Break-even rent $527

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $409	-5% $391	+0% $373	+5% $354	+10% $336
Rent	-10% $294	-5% $333	+0% $373	+5% $412	+10% $452
Rate	-1.0pp $405	-0.5pp $389	base $373	+0.5pp $356	+1.0pp $339

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
126 Bluecrest Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	840	$1,000	$1.19	16d	1	0.13mi
4109 Midway Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	971	$1,000	$1.03	5d	1	0.93mi
342 Lookout Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	800	$750	$0.94	4d	1	1.05mi
342 Lookout Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	800	$775	$0.97	45d	1	1.05mi
5336 Rockport Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	925	$1,025	$1.11	45d	1	1.08mi
500 Bowie Dr Unit 122 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	850	$910	$1.07	45d	1	1.26mi
6229 Carmin Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	875	$995	$1.14	20d	1	1.33mi
3964 Nicholas Rd Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	912	$1,000	$1.10	5d	1	1.43mi
3939 Nicholas Rd Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	912	$1,200	$1.32	45d	1	1.46mi
4625 Gardendale Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	864	$1,150	$1.33	4d	1	1.46mi
1427 Stuben Dr Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	957	$900	$0.94	4d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $65,000 Active 200 DOM
2. 2026-03-08
   price $65,000 301-char remark

   Show marketing remark (301 chars)

   This charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath bungalow offers 1,212 sq ft of comfortable living space and immediate income potential. The home features a spacious main level with two bedrooms, an inviting living area, and a large bath. The third bedroom is a finished attic suite, ideal for additional living space.

3. 2025-11-12
   listed $79,900 Active 301-char remark

   Show marketing remark (301 chars)

   This charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath bungalow offers 1,212 sq ft of comfortable living space and immediate income potential. The home features a spacious main level with two bedrooms, an inviting living area, and a large bath. The third bedroom is a finished attic suite, ideal for additional living space.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $580 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $797 · $66/mo
• Expected delta: +$217/yr (+$18/mo · 37.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,983
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$580
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$959
• − Management: −$959
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $3,629
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$871
• After-tax cash flow: $3,601/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dayton City
• NCES district ID: 3904384
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $28,688
• Composite: 12.94/100
• National rank: #9579
• State rank: #641 of 656 in OH

Livability — Dayton

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #716
• US rank: #12895

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dayton, OH
• County: Montgomery County · 459,541 people
• City population: 164,387
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• Population (ZIP): 28,186
• Household income: $36,945
• Rent vs Own: 52.1% rent · 47.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1822.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 523,241 people
• By 2030: 514,948 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 493,378 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 469,639 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 418,360 · -20.0%
• By 2100: 353,315 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 71% White 20% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 0%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.8% · R 49.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: 6.2pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+3.1 2008: D+6.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.43%
• Current HPI: 193.4175
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.06%
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

-18.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-08 Price Changed $65,000 Dayton MLS
• 2025-11-12 Listed $79,900 Dayton MLS

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $580 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.