4 E East Caribbean · Port St. Lucie, FL 34952

$40,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Manufactured · 196 Days on market

Built 1980 $950/mo HOA · 48% of rent ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

WELL KEPT HOME WITH AC AND ROOF INSTALLED WITHIN 5 YEARS. SECURITY SYSTEM, ALL WINDOWS IN EXCELLENT CONDITION. REAR AND FRONT OF HOUSE WITH LAKE VIEWS.

Key facts

• Security system
• Lake views
• 3 parking spots

Tags

• SECURITY SYSTEM
• LAKE VIEWS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located on a golf course; Not waterfront
• Financial info: Pets allowed; Senior community
• HOA & community: Community association with monthly fee; Association amenities include clubhouse, pool, fitness center, golf course, tennis courts, bocce, shuffleboard, billiard room, game room, community room, library, dog park, street lights; Association fee paid monthly; fee covers grounds maintenance, security, sewer, common areas, and golf

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with covered parking; 3 carport/covered spaces
• Security: Fire alarm; Smoke detectors; Security patrol
• Utilities: 220 volt electric; Public sewer available
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story; Faces west
• Construction: Frame and vinyl siding construction; Modular construction; Mansard/manufactured roof; Aluminum skirt
• Exterior features: Covered and open patios; Patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric, radiant); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Wet bar; Walk-in closet(s); Partially furnished
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $338 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $35k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.4% vs local median 3.9% in Port St. Lucie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 639 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $277 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 196 days — a 12% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (27%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 48% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $35,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 196 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.95% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.24%
• DSCR: 2.61
• GRM: 1.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $176,640
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10 Padre	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,280 (0%)	4mo	$38,000	$30	83
7 Giralda	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,200 (-6%)	4mo	$21,000	$18	75
8504 Gallberry Cir	0.45mi	2/2.0	1,264 (-1%)	4mo	$178,000	$141	73
2948 Fiddlewood Cir	0.56mi	2/2.0	1,280 (0%)	1mo	$122,000	$95	73
110 W Caribbean	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,416 (+11%)	5mo	$77,500	$55	69
3033 Satinleaf Ln	0.57mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-2%)	4mo	$195,000	$156	66
8526 Lidflower Ct	0.25mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,404 (+10%)	6mo	$70,900	$50	60
3422 Feriwinkle Ct	0.54mi	2/2.0	1,184 (-8%)	4mo	$205,000	$173	59
3801 Westchester Ct	0.66mi	2/2.0	1,225 (-4%)	7mo	$210,000	$171	56
8394 Delphinium Ct	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,392 (+9%)	4mo	$220,000	$158	55
192 W Caribbean	0.52mi	2/2.0	1,416 (+11%)	6mo	$49,000	$35	53
3788 Satinwood Ct	0.51mi	2/2.0	1,090 (-15%)	2mo	$150,000	$138	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.21×
• Total profit: $13,545
• Equity at exit: $5,964

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.99×
• Total profit: $33,477
• Equity at exit: $3,458

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34952

• Home prices YoY: -29.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 639
• Price-to-rent: 1.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,981 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$50 /mo · $600/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$950
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $338

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,552

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $366	-5% $352	+0% $338	+5% $324	+10% $311
Rent	-10% $182	-5% $260	+0% $338	+5% $416	+10% $495
Rate	-1.0pp $358	-0.5pp $348	base $338	+0.5pp $328	+1.0pp $317

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
71 W Caribbean Port St. Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1417	$1,700	$1.20	24d	1	0.20mi
1811 SE Walton Lakes Dr Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	1117	$1,926	$1.72	14d	6	0.44mi
1131 SE Parrish Ct Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	1.0	902	$2,000	$2.22	24d	1	0.52mi
2082 SE Wild Meadow Cir Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1524	$1,850	$1.21	24d	1	0.52mi
3784 Sapodilla Ct Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1121	$2,300	$2.05	24d	1	0.53mi
2058 SE Wild Meadow Cir #101 Port St Lucie, FL	2.0	2.5	1425	$2,200	$1.54	14d	1	0.54mi
2183 SE Wild Meadow Cir Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1550	$1,900	$1.23	14d	1	0.58mi
2130 SE Wild Meadow Cir Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1440	$1,695	$1.18	14d	1	0.59mi
1810 SE Pinewood Trl Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1013	$2,055	$2.03	14d	7	0.61mi
2209 SE East Dunbrooke Cir Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1212	$2,950	$2.43	14d	1	0.72mi
1900 Bella Vista Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	995	$1,764	$1.77	14d	15	0.79mi
1500 SE Tiffany Club Pl Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	895	$1,922	$2.15	14d	7	0.99mi
1455 SE Colchester Cir Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	921	$1,795	$1.95	14d	1	1.02mi
1516 SE Royal Green Cir #202 Port St Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	921	$2,100	$2.28	24d	1	1.03mi
1520 SE Royal Green Cir Unit K-203 Port St. Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	886	$1,800	$2.03	24d	1	1.04mi
1537 SE Royal Green Cir Unit E204 Port St. Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	886	$1,750	$1.98	14d	1	1.13mi
1548 SE Royal Green Cir Unit M-103 Port St. Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	886	$1,800	$2.03	24d	1	1.19mi
1618 SE Elkhart Ter Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1176	$2,200	$1.87	24d	1	1.29mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $950 · $11,400/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $40,000 Active 196 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $40,000 Active 195 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $40,000 Active 194 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $40,000 Active 193 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on market $40,000 Active 191 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $43,000 Active 190 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $43,000 Active 188 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $43,000 Active 187 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $43,000 Active 186 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $43,000 Active 185 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $43,000 Active 183 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    price $43,000 Active 182 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,899 Active 182 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,899 Active 181 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $49,899 Active 180 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    price $49,899
17. 2026-03-20
    price $49,900
18. 2025-12-01
    listed $54,900 Active
19. 2025-11-24
    historical
20. 2025-09-26
    price $54,000
21. 2025-06-09
    listed $62,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,767
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$600
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,901
• − Management: −$1,901
• − HOA: −$11,400
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $4,360
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,046
• After-tax cash flow: $3,012/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Lucie
• NCES district ID: 1201770
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,737
• Composite: 37.28/100
• National rank: #4449
• State rank: #51 of 73 in FL

Livability — Port St. Lucie

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Port St. Lucie, FL
• County: Saint Lucie County · 337,150 people
• City population: 221,051
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,655
• Household income: $61,628
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1759.0

Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 338,016 people
• By 2030: 355,687 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 385,521 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 406,106 · +20.1%
• By 2075: 441,054 · +30.5%
• By 2100: 436,885 · +29.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 14% Black 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -155.80%
• Current HPI: 371.0573
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.92%
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-19.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $49,899 Beaches MLS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $49,900 Beaches MLS
• 2025-12-01 Listed $54,900 Beaches MLS
• 2025-11-24 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2025-09-26 Price Changed $54,000 Beaches MLS
• 2025-06-09 Listed $62,000 Beaches MLS