401 E Ward St · Refugio, TX 78377

$15,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 676 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1945 8,333 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Property being sold as land value only. Home next door also for sale, can be purchased as a package or separate.

Key facts

• 8,333 sq ft lot
• Built 1945
• Listed 16 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: $351 annual tax (2025)
• Financial info: Lease not considered
• HOA & community: Not specified

Exterior

• Parking: Not specified
• Security: Not specified
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story (implied by living area and year built data)
• Construction: Built in 1945; Wood siding exterior; Block foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Not specified
• Bedrooms: Not specified
• Flooring: Not specified
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Not specified
• Interior features: 2 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Not specified

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $15k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $739 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $15k).
• Recommended offer: $15k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#255 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Refugio ISD (town): math 38% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #455 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Refugio H S (math 62% / reading 34%, grade D, #569 of 1,632 statewide, top 35%, 216 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools at 67% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 24 units permitted in Refugio County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.2%/yr); year-one equity from $104 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $329 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Refugio County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-2.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($15k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $14,775 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 7.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 65.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 211.04%
• DSCR: 10.39
• GRM: 1.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.2% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.75×
• Total profit: $45,147
• Equity at exit: $2,779

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 24.91×
• Total profit: $100,433
• Equity at exit: $2,249

Cash invested: $4,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78377

• Home prices YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 1.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,080 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$79
• Tax from tax record: −$29 /mo · $351/yr
• Insurance: −$6
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$227
• Net cashflow: $739

Break-even live

Break-even rent $145

Max offer price $15,000

Occupancy floor 27%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $3,750
• Closing costs: $450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
507 E Commons St Refugio, TX	2.0	1.0	736	$1,150	$1.56	43d	1	0.12mi
602 W Commons St Refugio, TX	1.0	1.0	700	$711	$1.02	43d	1	0.66mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $15,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $15,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $15,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $15,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $15,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $15,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $15,000 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $15,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $15,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $15,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 112-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $15,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $351 · $29/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $351 · $29/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,955
• − Mortgage interest: −$840
• − Property taxes: −$351
• − Insurance: −$75
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,036
• − Management: −$1,036
• − Depreciation: −$436
• Taxable income: $9,179
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,203
• After-tax cash flow: $6,661/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Refugio ISD
• NCES district ID: 4836780
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,181
• Composite: 32.48/100
• National rank: #5712
• State rank: #455 of 826 in TX

Livability — Refugio

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #255
• US rank: #6003

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Refugio, TX
• Population (ZIP): 3,376

Population outlook (Refugio County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 7,573 people
• By 2030: 7,665 · +1.2%
• By 2040: 7,895 · +4.3%
• By 2050: 8,234 · +8.7%
• By 2075: 9,521 · +25.7%
• By 2100: 10,148 · +34.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 51% White 35% Two or more races 25% Black 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 48%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 24%

Political lean MEDSL · Refugio

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.9% · R 69.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.0pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.7 2016: R+27.0 2012: R+24.7 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.20%
• Current HPI: 142.4929
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $15,000 HARMLS
• 2001-11-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1972-06-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1958-03-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1951-07-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $351 · -1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.