2518 14th Ct SE · Cypress Gardens, FL 33884

$239,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,806 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1970 10,794 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. It's all about Location! Nestled in between Lake Roy and Lake Summit! Welcome home! The living room and dining area wrap around the kitchen. New Island with breakfast bar that sits 6! The eat in nook area and doors to step out to the screened room and shady backyard, a perfect spot for reading, napping and relaxing. The Primary bedroom is of nice size and the two additional bedrooms are down the hall and have ample closet space. The Inside Utility has access to the side breezeway and the garage. Endless possibilities! Need a seasonal home instead of renting or investment property? This is it! This home's location can’t be beat in the beautiful

Key facts

• Lake roy
• Screened room
• Shady backyard

Tags

• LAKE ROY
• LAKE SUMMIT
• BREAKFAST BAR
• SCREENED ROOM
• SHADY BACKYARD
• INSIDE UTILITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $239k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $228 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (8.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (8.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#110 in FL, #1,693 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 680 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $46k; list at $239k implies a 420% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,880 (8.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.09%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-26,674
• Equity at exit: $35,636

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-14,418
• Equity at exit: $20,664

Cash invested: $66,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33884

• Home prices YoY: -34.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 680
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,199 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax from tax record: −$156 /mo · $1,875/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $228

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,910

Max offer price $239,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $363	-5% $296	+0% $228	+5% $160	+10% $93
Rent	-10% $54	-5% $141	+0% $228	+5% $315	+10% $402
Rate	-1.0pp $348	-0.5pp $289	base $228	+0.5pp $166	+1.0pp $103

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,750
• Closing costs: $7,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
123 Tremont Dr Winter Haven, FL	4.0	3.0	1260	$2,350	$1.87	24d	1	0.36mi
2005 N Lake Eloise Dr Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1513	$1,950	$1.29	4d	1	0.39mi
2249 9th St SE Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,449	$0.95	19d	1	0.45mi
919 S AVE SE Unit 1325030P Eloise, FL	3.0	2.0	1722	$2,954	$1.72	3d	1	0.47mi
227 W Lake Ina Dr Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1764	$2,500	$1.42	24d	1	0.48mi
2374 Isle Royale Ct SE Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.5	1320	$1,700	$1.29	24d	1	1.18mi
2312 Isle Royale Ct SE Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.5	1280	$1,499	$1.17	4d	1	1.18mi
5850 Cypress Gardens Blvd Winter Haven, FL	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.5	1308	$1,800	$1.38	15d	2	1.23mi
5850 Cypress Gardens Blvd #806 Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.5	1356	$1,800	$1.33	4d	1	1.23mi
200 Avenue K SE Winter Haven, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1095	$1,735	$1.58	3d	45	1.38mi
252 Santa Rosa Dr Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	2116	$2,495	$1.18	24d	1	1.40mi
1042 Michelangelo Ln Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.5	2386	$2,275	$0.95	4d	1	1.42mi
1050 Michelangelo Ln Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1659	$2,100	$1.27	15d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $239,000 Pending 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-05
   days on market $239,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   pricestatus $239,000 Active 1 DOM
4. 2026-04-10
   status Pending
5. 2026-04-10
   listed $209,000 Active
6. 1978-02-01
   soldstatus $46,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,875 · $156/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,984 · $165/mo
• Expected delta: +$109/yr (+$9/mo · 5.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,386
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,388
• − Property taxes: −$1,875
• − Insurance: −$1,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,111
• − Management: −$2,111
• − Depreciation: −$6,953
• Taxable loss: −$1,246
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$299
• After-tax cash flow: $3,034/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Cypress Gardens

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #110
• US rank: #1693

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cypress Gardens, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 37,561
• Household income: $70,443
• Rent vs Own: 25.7% rent · 74.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 949.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Hispanic 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 12% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -134.69%
• Current HPI: 260.1421
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.90%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+354.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-10 Listed $209,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1978-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $46,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,875 · +9.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.