10019 Baker Rd · St. Thomas, MO 65040

$199,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,334 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1940 2.18 ac lot $150/sqft · 21% below area Est $253k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +8.2/10.0
• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0
• 1% rule +0.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

HOME owned & well maintained for the past 45 years by the same owners, recently all new floor coverings and ready to move into this lovely setting on 2+ acres. The land does have 2nd utility hook-ups for another house. Fenced in yard around the home and wood burning fire place in this OPEN living space, among many other amenities you will want to see in this lovely HOME.

Key facts

• New ac unit
• Fenced yard
• Spacious lot

Tags

• MAIN-LEVEL LIVING
• SPACIOUS LOT
• FENCED YARD
• 9X13 STORAGE SHED
• NEW AC UNIT
• NEW MICROWAVE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage; 1-car carport; Additional parking
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Brick construction; Slab foundation; Built/updated (updated/remodeled noted)
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range Hood; Microwave; Refrigerator; Range
• Bedrooms: Total of 5 rooms (bedrooms included)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (electric); Attic fan; Heating present
• Interior features: Fireplace; Updated/remodeled condition
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-348 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $138k (30.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $109k (45.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $109k (45.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Cole County R-V (rural): math 34% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #181 of 324 in MO (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Eugene Elem. (math 37% / reading 32%, grade F, #676 of 1,115 statewide, top 66%, 334 students, 25% FRL); Eugene High (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #247 of 521 statewide, top 55%, 287 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 25% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 173 units permitted in Cole County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (6.4% local appreciation)).
• Cole County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $109,076 (45.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.55% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.46%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 15.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $252,826
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -20.93%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

6.4% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $40,269
• Equity at exit: $130,769

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.40×
• Total profit: $134,464
• Equity at exit: $241,677

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65040

• Home prices YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 6
• Price-to-rent: 15.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,091 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$78 /mo · $935/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$229
• Net cashflow: $-348

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,531

Max offer price $138,452

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-235	-5% $-291	+0% $-348	+5% $-404	+10% $-461
Rent	-10% $-434	-5% $-391	+0% $-348	+5% $-305	+10% $-262
Rate	-1.0pp $-247	-0.5pp $-297	base $-348	+0.5pp $-400	+1.0pp $-452

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending 1059-char remark
2. 2026-05-07
   listed $199,900 Active 1059-char remark
3. 2022-09-13
   soldstatus
4. 2022-09-08
   soldstatus Closed 379-char remark

   Show marketing remark (379 chars)

   HOME owned & well maintained for the past 45 years by the same owners, recently all new floor coverings and ready to move into this lovely setting on 2+ acres. The land does have 2nd utility hook-ups for another house. Fenced in yard around the home and wood burning fire place in this OPEN living space, among many other amenities you will want to see in this lovely HOME.

5. 2022-08-15
   status Pending 379-char remark

   Show marketing remark (379 chars)

   HOME owned & well maintained for the past 45 years by the same owners, recently all new floor coverings and ready to move into this lovely setting on 2+ acres. The land does have 2nd utility hook-ups for another house. Fenced in yard around the home and wood burning fire place in this OPEN living space, among many other amenities you will want to see in this lovely HOME.

6. 2022-08-11
   listed $152,500 Active 379-char remark

   Show marketing remark (379 chars)

   HOME owned & well maintained for the past 45 years by the same owners, recently all new floor coverings and ready to move into this lovely setting on 2+ acres. The land does have 2nd utility hook-ups for another house. Fenced in yard around the home and wood burning fire place in this OPEN living space, among many other amenities you will want to see in this lovely HOME.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $935 · $78/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,939 · $162/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,004/yr (+$84/mo · 107.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,089
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$935
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,047
• − Management: −$1,047
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$7,953
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,909
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,265/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cole County R-V
• NCES district ID: 2911550
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,356
• Composite: 32.09/100
• National rank: #5809
• State rank: #181 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Thomas

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,468

Population outlook (Cole County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 78,107 people
• By 2030: 78,089 · +-0.0%
• By 2040: 76,814 · -1.7%
• By 2050: 74,515 · -4.6%
• By 2075: 67,687 · -13.3%
• By 2100: 55,023 · -29.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cole

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.4) · D 32.1% · R 66.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.5pp toward R · 2008: -26.9pp · 2024: -34.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.4 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+36.8 2012: R+33.7 2008: R+26.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.40%
• Current HPI: 243.2644
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+31.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Sold (MLS) — JCMLS
• 2026-05-13 Pending — JCMLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $199,900 JCMLS
• 2022-09-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-09-08 Sold (MLS) — JCMLS
• 2022-08-15 Pending — JCMLS
• 2022-08-11 Listed $152,500 JCMLS

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $935 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.