8282 Murray Ave #5 · Gilroy, CA 95020

$249,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured · 14 Days on market

Built 2000 Est $238k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.0/30.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• ARV discount +5.4/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully remodeled! Low space rent! This charming 3 bed / 2 bath home features a stunning kitchen with stainless steel appliances and stylish cabinetry, breakfast bar for two, double-pane windows, new flooring, updated bathrooms, high ceilings and fresh interior and exterior paint. Located in a highly sought-after 55+ community near Gilroy Outlets, shopping, and great dining. Low space rent of only $890/month.

Key facts

• New flooring
• Updated bathrooms
• Stunning kitchen

Tags

• STUNNING KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• BREAKFAST BAR
• DOUBLE-PANE WINDOWS
• NEW FLOORING
• UPDATED BATHROOMS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Leased land for park home site
• HOA & community: Clubhouse; Community pool; Garden/greenbelt/trails; Senior community (55+)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (2 spaces); 5 assigned parking spaces; Guest/visitor parking; Covered parking available
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Single-story; Senior community (55+)
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: Composition roof; Public utilities; Public sewer; Leased land (park home site)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Hood over range; Gas oven/range; Refrigerator; Breakfast bar / dining area in family room; Kitchen/family room combo
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl/linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms with tub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Central forced air heating
• Interior features: Vaulted ceiling; Laundry hookups only; Laundry room; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Laundry hookups only

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $552 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 1.8% in Gilroy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#206 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D-, cost of living F.
• Gilroy Unified (suburban): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #477 of 1,400 in CA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 165 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 61% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,838 units permitted in Santa Clara County in 2024 (1,886 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Clara County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.8% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $105k; list at $250k implies a 138% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $249,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.62%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $238,464
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8282 Murray #90 Ave #90	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,108 (-4%)	6mo	$265,000	$239	87
8282 Murray Ave #65	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,062 (-8%)	3mo	$220,000	$207	79
8282 Murray Ave #48	0.03mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (+4%)	10mo	$225,000	$188	78
8282 Murray Ave #110	0.03mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,140 (-1%)	17mo	$229,500	$201	78

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $184
• Equity at exit: $37,201

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.98×
• Total profit: $68,639
• Equity at exit: $21,572

Cash invested: $69,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95020

• Rents YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 165
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,965 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,308
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,742/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$623
• Net cashflow: $552

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,267

Max offer price $249,500

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,375
• Closing costs: $7,485
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8495 Murray Ave Gilroy, CA	2.0	2.0	1228	$3,000	$2.44	17d	1	0.32mi
8001 Church St Unit D Gilroy, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$2,400	$3.20	43d	1	0.50mi
7881 Rosanna St Unit 7881B Gilroy, CA	2.0	1.5	813	$2,650	$3.26	43d	1	0.60mi
7600 Monterey St #201 Gilroy, CA	2.0	2.0	1076	$2,495	$2.32	43d	1	0.63mi
508 La Sierra Way Gilroy, CA	2.0	1.0	1040	$3,495	$3.36	3d	1	0.70mi
7255 East St Gilroy, CA	2.0	1.0	775	$2,375	$3.06	43d	1	0.93mi
766 1st St Gilroy, CA	2.0	1.5	940	$2,924	$3.11	1d	3	0.97mi
766 El Cerrito Way Gilroy, CA	2.0	1.0	792	$2,395	$3.02	20d	1	0.99mi
8195 Parish Way Gilroy, CA	2.0	1.5	1109	$2,575	$2.32	43d	1	1.22mi
7130 Rosanna St Unit B Gilroy, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$2,095	$2.62	43d	1	1.23mi
8200 Kern Ave Gilroy, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	768	$3,070	$3.99	1d	1	1.28mi
1088 Montebello Dr Gilroy, CA	3.0	2.0	1200	$3,300	$2.75	43d	1	1.39mi
975 Perrelli St Gilroy, CA	3.0	2.0	1424	$3,699	$2.60	7d	1	1.40mi
7060 Princevalle St Unit D Gilroy, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,400	$2.67	43d	1	1.41mi
7060 Princevalle St Unit A Gilroy, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,550	$2.83	43d	1	1.41mi
1129 Montebello Dr Gilroy, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$2,500	$3.33	1d	1	1.42mi
7050 Princevalle St Unit D Gilroy, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,350	$2.61	43d	1	1.43mi
8421 Westwood Dr Gilroy, CA	3.0	2.0	1461	$3,850	$2.64	43d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,500 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,500 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,500 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,500 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,500 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,500 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,500 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   remarks 427-char remark
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,500 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 416-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $249,500 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 16 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,585
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,976
• − Property taxes: −$3,742
• − Insurance: −$2,045
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,847
• − Management: −$2,847
• − Depreciation: −$7,258
• Taxable income: $2,869
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$689
• After-tax cash flow: $5,935/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gilroy Unified
• NCES district ID: 0615180
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $82,439
• Composite: 43.55/100
• National rank: #6439
• State rank: #477 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Gilroy

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #6596

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A- Cost of living F Crime D- Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gilroy, CA
• County: Santa Clara County · 1,806,974 people
• City population: 67,181
• Metro: San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA
• Population (ZIP): 67,181
• Household income: $137,117
• Rent vs Own: 36.2% rent · 63.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1512.0

Population outlook (Santa Clara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,179,074 people
• By 2030: 2,301,297 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 2,528,195 · +16.0%
• By 2050: 2,712,135 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 2,998,701 · +37.6%
• By 2100: 2,931,429 · +34.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 57% Two or more races 34% White 26% Asian 9% Black 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 49% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Russian 2% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 34% Other Indo-European 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Clara

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+40.0) · D 68.1% · R 28.1% · Other 3.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.9pp no change · 2008: 40.9pp · 2024: 40.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+40.0 2020: D+47.4 2016: D+52.5 2012: D+42.1 2008: D+40.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -896.34%
• Current HPI: 272.1867
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.77%
• Metro: San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+117.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $249,500 MLSListings
• 2026-06-04 Listed $249,500 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2002-05-07 Listing Removed — MLSListings
• 2002-04-01 Sold (MLS) $105,000 MLSListings
• 2001-11-28 Listed $114,900 MLSListings