5812 Teakwood Ln · Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY 40258

$179,970

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,190 sqft · SingleFamily · 34 Days on market

Built 1959 9,831 sqft lot Est $254k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

--Louisville (PRP) 4BR/1BA Real Estate Online Only Auction--Bidding ends Jun 09, 2026 @ 5:00 PM EDT!--Well-maintained brick ranch offering over 2100 SF including a finished basement. Features natural wood trim, hardwood flooring, and spacious living areas. The basement includes a large rec room, built-in bar with vintage refrigerator, and a non-conforming fourth bedroom. Major updates include roof (2017), Bryant AC (2021), furnace (2009), vinyl windows, and waterproofing (2016). Outside features a covered front porch, 2-car detached garage, and 2-car carport. The garage is equipped with a gas heater, hoist system, shelving, and more. Ideal for workshop or storage. A solid home with space, c

Key facts

• Hardwood flooring
• Large rec room
• Finished basement

Tags

• FINISHED BASEMENT
• NATURAL WOOD TRIM
• HARDWOOD FLOORING
• LARGE REC ROOM
• BUILT-IN BAR
• VINTAGE REFRIGERATOR

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Gibson Acres
• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with front entry (2-car garage)
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Natural gas available
• Home design: Ranch-style residence; Single-story (1 story); Property listed as an auction
• Construction: Built in 1959; Wood frame and brick construction; Shingle roof; Below-grade finished and unfinished space
• Exterior features: No notable exterior features listed; Chain link fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor; Separate dining room on the first floor
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Partially finished basement; 8 total rooms; Great room in basement; Additional basement room (other)
• Laundry & utility: No first-floor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $341 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $175k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 4.0% in Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 125 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $174,570 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.12%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $254,040
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7903 Columbine Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	2,150 (-2%)	6mo	$250,000	$116	74
8303 Gloxinia Dr	0.36mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,243 (+2%)	4mo	$298,700	$133	67
6105 Clovelly Ct	0.50mi	3/1.5	2,088 (-5%)	3mo	$275,000	$132	65
7905 Bluebonnet Rd	0.48mi	3/2.0	2,065 (-6%)	3mo	$190,000	$92	61
5604 W Pages Ln	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,088 (-5%)	4mo	$285,000	$136	61
6003 Seaforth Way	0.73mi	3/1.5	2,215 (+1%)	3mo	$240,000	$108	60
5513 Tamarack Ln	0.37mi	2/2.0 (-1)	2,055 (-6%)	6mo	$218,000	$106	59
5212 W Pages Ln	0.68mi	3/1.0	2,100 (-4%)	5mo	$235,000	$112	57
6302 Casper Dr	0.44mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,050 (-6%)	5mo	$216,500	$106	56
8000 Kenhurst Dr	0.72mi	3/3.0	2,320 (+6%)	2mo	$265,000	$114	46
8902 Hagner Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,935 (-12%)	2mo	$245,000	$127	40
8712 Cottingham Way	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,882 (-14%)	4mo	$284,625	$151	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.5% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-12,086
• Equity at exit: $26,834

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-688
• Equity at exit: $15,561

Cash invested: $50,392 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40258

• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 125
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,879 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$124 /mo · $1,493/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$395
• Net cashflow: $341

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,447

Max offer price $179,970

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $443	-5% $392	+0% $341	+5% $290	+10% $239
Rent	-10% $193	-5% $267	+0% $341	+5% $415	+10% $489
Rate	-1.0pp $432	-0.5pp $387	base $341	+0.5pp $294	+1.0pp $247

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,992
• Closing costs: $5,399
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6100 Goalby Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	2.5	1582	$1,850	$1.17	17d	1	0.38mi
7820 Hepatica Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	2.5	1763	$2,070	$1.17	15d	1	0.66mi
4904 Paramount Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	2.5	2205	$2,145	$0.97	24d	1	0.97mi
9207 Fenmore Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,550	$1.03	17d	1	1.06mi
9302 Ponder Ln Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	1678	$1,350	$0.80	15d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $179,970 Pending 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $179,970 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,970 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,970 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $179,970 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $179,970 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $179,970 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $179,970 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $179,970 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-05-08
    listed $179,970 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,493 · $124/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,548 · $129/mo
• Expected delta: +$55/yr (+$5/mo · 3.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,545
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,081
• − Property taxes: −$1,493
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,804
• − Management: −$1,804
• − Depreciation: −$5,235
• Taxable income: $1,229
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$295
• After-tax cash flow: $3,798/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance)

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• City population: 419,741
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 26,841
• Household income: $68,162
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 839.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 22% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -296.36%
• Current HPI: 244.6667
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.50%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Listed $179,970 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,493 · -4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.