23 Westwood Dr · Orange Lake, NY 12550

$279,999

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1958 10,800 sqft lot $292/sqft · 38% below area Est $450k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity awaits in the desirable Colden Park neighborhood! This 3-bedroom home offers approximately 1,476 sq ft of living space and a great layout ready for your vision. Set in a well-established area, this property presents a chance to create something truly special while building equity in a strong location. Conveniently located near shopping, major highways, and everyday amenities. Don’t miss the potential this home has to offer!

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1958

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-241 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $237k (15.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $231k (17.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $231k (17.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 2.8% in Orange Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#972 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Valley Central School District (Montgomery) (rural): math 54% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #299 of 590 in NY (top 51%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Valley Central Middle School (math 28% / reading 42%, grade F, #480 of 729 statewide, top 66%, 982 students, 41% FRL); Valley Central High School (math 95% / reading 87%, grade A+, #203 of 1,100 statewide, top 20%, 1,346 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 384 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $222k; 26% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $231,117 (17.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.69%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $450,056
• List price: $279,999
• Delta: -37.79%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11 Windwood Dr	0.19mi	2/1.0 (-1)	960 (0%)	20mo	$369,000	$384	69
1 Briarwood Cres	0.42mi	2/2.0 (-1)	925 (-4%)	3mo	$330,000	$357	63
20 Rustic Dr	0.25mi	3/1.0	1,034 (+8%)	22mo	$305,000	$295	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.63% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-66,002
• Equity at exit: $41,749

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.25×
• Total profit: $-97,851
• Equity at exit: $24,209

Cash invested: $78,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12550

• Home prices YoY: -33.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 384
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,311 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$482 /mo · $5,784/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$485
• Net cashflow: $-241

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,616

Max offer price $237,390

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-83	-5% $-162	+0% $-241	+5% $-320	+10% $-400
Rent	-10% $-424	-5% $-332	+0% $-241	+5% $-150	+10% $-59
Rate	-1.0pp $-100	-0.5pp $-170	base $-241	+0.5pp $-314	+1.0pp $-388

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,000
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending 445-char remark

   Show marketing remark (445 chars)

   Opportunity awaits in the desirable Colden Park neighborhood! This 3-bedroom home offers approximately 1,476 sq ft of living space and a great layout ready for your vision. Set in a well-established area, this property presents a chance to create something truly special while building equity in a strong location. Conveniently located near shopping, major highways, and everyday amenities. Don’t miss the potential this home has to offer!

2. 2026-04-16
   listed $279,999 Active 445-char remark

   Show marketing remark (445 chars)

   Opportunity awaits in the desirable Colden Park neighborhood! This 3-bedroom home offers approximately 1,476 sq ft of living space and a great layout ready for your vision. Set in a well-established area, this property presents a chance to create something truly special while building equity in a strong location. Conveniently located near shopping, major highways, and everyday amenities. Don’t miss the potential this home has to offer!

3. 2004-01-08
   soldstatus $221,500
4. 2003-11-19
   soldstatus $215,000 131-char remark

   Show marketing remark (131 chars)

   This move in condition ranch is a must see. 3 to 4 Bedrooms, Florida Room with Gas Fireplace--move in condition & low taxes!

5. 2003-10-17
   historical 131-char remark

   Show marketing remark (131 chars)

   This move in condition ranch is a must see. 3 to 4 Bedrooms, Florida Room with Gas Fireplace--move in condition & low taxes!

6. 2003-09-08
   listed $215,000 131-char remark

   Show marketing remark (131 chars)

   This move in condition ranch is a must see. 3 to 4 Bedrooms, Florida Room with Gas Fireplace--move in condition & low taxes!

7. 1996-11-08
   soldstatus $118,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,784 · $482/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,784 · $482/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 14% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,734
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$5,784
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,219
• − Management: −$2,219
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$7,717
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,852
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,042/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Valley Central School District (Montgomery)
• NCES district ID: 3619680
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $69,186
• Composite: 47.53/100
• National rank: #2271
• State rank: #299 of 590 in NY

Livability — Orange Lake

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #972
• US rank: #18993

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Orange Lake, NY
• County: Orange County · 267,004 people
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 55,152
• Household income: $85,697
• Rent vs Own: 44.2% rent · 55.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2412.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 39% White 36% Black 20% Two or more races 12% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 10% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Hispanic 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 30% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -151.93%
• Current HPI: 304.1046
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.63%
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+137.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-16 Listed $279,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-01-08 Sold (Public Records) $221,500 Public Records
• 2003-11-19 Sold (MLS) $215,000 HGMLS
• 2003-10-17 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2003-09-08 Listed $215,000 HGMLS
• 1996-11-08 Sold (Public Records) $118,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,784 · +6.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.