🏷️ Likely Rental
1 Violetta Ln · River Park, FL
Flood risk 3/10 · Minor
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.12%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 3/10 · Minor
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $947 – $1,759
Heat risk 10/10 · Severe
- Hot days now (above 106°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 23 days/yr
Wind risk 10/10 · Severe
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 99.0%
Air-quality risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 1 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 1 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +15.0/30.0
- ARV discount +7.5/15.0
- 1% rule +5.0/10.0
- DSCR +5.0/10.0
- Schools +3.7/10.0
- Livability +3.5/5.0
- Rent growth +3.0/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$22,500
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
Spanish Lakes One is an Active 55+ Community offering all new CBS homes. We have over 10,000 residents living in our communities. ALL residents have use of all the amenities including golf, tennis, heated pools, a huge clubhouse, plus much more! Our objective is to provide homeowners with the highest quality concrete-block home, at the most affordable price, including a metal roof, stainless steel appliances, granite counter-tops & cherry wood cabinets. We offer unique in-house financing & no-prepayment penalties, no points, no application fee, no survey, no appraisal fee, no title insurance, no Private Mortgage Insurance, and no origination fee. ALL houses offered are brand new! Start your new lifestyle now. * Taxes will be determined at closing.
Key facts
- Lots of storage
- Corner lot
- New roof
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $22k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($18k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $22k).
- Recommended offer: $22k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 85.8% vs local median 6.4% in River Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 69/100 on livability (#451 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute A-; Watch: amenities F, employment F, health & safety D-.
- St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
- Zoned schools: Manatee Academy K-8 (math 53% / reading 51%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 1,664 students, 65% FRL); Southern Oaks Middle School (math 39% / reading 43%, grade F, #353 of 571 statewide, top 63%, 894 students, 76% FRL); Fort Pierce Central High School (math 15% / reading 45%, grade F, #441 of 667 statewide, top 67%, 3,091 students, 62% FRL).
- Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 645 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
- This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $156 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $675 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($22k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 9.26% ✓
- Cap rate
- 85.82%
- Cash-on-cash
- 284.03%
- DSCR
- 13.64
- GRM
- 0.9
CMA / ARV
- ARV (on-the-fly)
- $288,864
- Comps found
- 6
Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Camino Del Rio | 0.16mi | 2/2.0 | 1,446 (+2%) | 5mo | $259,000 | $179 | 85 |
| 8 Santa Maria Ct | 0.26mi | 2/2.0 | 1,319 (-7%) | 3mo | $145,000 | $110 | 74 |
| 8 Golf Dr | 0.45mi | 2/2.0 | 1,427 (+1%) | 13mo | $160,000 | $112 | 67 |
| 201 SE Camino Ct | 0.43mi | 2/2.0 | 1,305 (-8%) | 6mo | $266,500 | $204 | 62 |
| 746 Altura St | 0.65mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,352 (-4%) | 23mo | $310,000 | $229 | 38 |
| 756 Cypress St | 0.71mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,497 (+6%) | 23mo | $349,999 | $234 | 33 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 1.92% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- —
- Equity multiple
- 15.15×
- Total profit
- $89,118
- Equity at exit
- $3,355
- IRR
- —
- Equity multiple
- 31.32×
- Total profit
- $191,026
- Equity at exit
- $1,945
Cash invested: $6,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Florida
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 34952
- Home prices YoY
- -29.6%
- Rents YoY
- 1.9%
- Active inventory
- 645
- Price-to-rent
- 0.9×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $2,084 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$118
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$28 /mo · $338/yr
- Insurance
- −$9
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$438
- Net cashflow
- $1,491
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $1,507 | -5% $1,499 | +0% $1,491 | +5% $1,483 | +10% $1,476 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $1,327 | -5% $1,409 | +0% $1,491 | +5% $1,574 | +10% $1,656 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $1,503 | -0.5pp $1,497 | base $1,491 | +0.5pp $1,485 | +1.0pp $1,479 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $5,625
- Closing costs
- $675
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 17 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 124 E Arbor Ave Port Saint Lucie, FL | 3.0 | 1.0 | 964 | $2,550 | $2.65 | 16d | 1 | 0.70mi |
| 730 SE White Ave Port Saint Lucie, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1386 | $10,000 | $7.22 | 25d | 1 | 0.77mi |
| 7700 Pine Lakes Blvd Port Saint Lucie, FL | 1.0–3.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 1022 | $1,878 | $1.84 | 16d | 16 | 0.82mi |
| 805 SE Cavern Ave Port Saint Lucie, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1732 | $2,500 | $1.44 | 25d | 1 | 0.96mi |
| 326 Shady Ln Port Saint Lucie, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1030 | $2,250 | $2.18 | 25d | 1 | 0.99mi |
| 400 NW Prima Vista Blvd Port St Lucie, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1566 | $2,300 | $1.47 | 25d | 1 | 1.02mi |
| 14 Lake Vista Trl #101 Port Saint Lucie, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1170 | $2,200 | $1.88 | 25d | 1 | 1.07mi |
| 11 Lake Vista Trl #206 Port Saint Lucie, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1080 | $1,400 | $1.30 | 25d | 1 | 1.09mi |
| 336 SE Tranquilla Ave Port Saint Lucie, FL | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1412 | $2,700 | $1.91 | 16d | 1 | 1.11mi |
| 4 Lake Vista Trl #202 Port Saint Lucie, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1080 | $1,700 | $1.57 | 23d | 1 | 1.11mi |
| 26 Lake Vista Trl #201 Port Saint Lucie, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1170 | $1,500 | $1.28 | 25d | 1 | 1.15mi |
| 2 Lake Vista Trl #107 Port Saint Lucie, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1170 | $1,850 | $1.58 | 25d | 1 | 1.16mi |
| 1900 Bella Vista Way Port Saint Lucie, FL | 1.0–2.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 995 | $1,764 | $1.77 | 16d | 15 | 1.18mi |
| 1 Lake Vista Trl #201 Port Saint Lucie, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1170 | $1,800 | $1.54 | 25d | 1 | 1.19mi |
| 650 SE Evergreen Ter Port Saint Lucie, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 974 | $2,095 | $2.15 | 16d | 1 | 1.29mi |
| 201 NE Midfield Ln Port Saint Lucie, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1389 | $2,500 | $1.80 | 25d | 1 | 1.39mi |
| 213 NE Prima Vista Blvd Port Saint Lucie, FL | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1012 | $2,000 | $1.98 | 25d | 1 | 1.41mi |
Listing history 23 events
-
2026-06-15days on market $22,500 Active 20 DOM
-
2026-06-14days on market $22,500 Active 18 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $22,500 Active 17 DOM
-
2026-06-10days on market $22,500 Active 15 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $22,500 Active 14 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $22,500 Active 13 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $22,500 Active 12 DOM
-
2026-06-05days on market $22,500 Active 9 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $22,500 Active 8 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $22,500 Active 7 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $22,500 Active 6 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $22,500 Active 5 DOM
-
2026-05-30days on market $22,500 Active 4 DOM
-
2026-05-26$22,500 Active
-
2026-01-17historical
-
2025-12-03price $34,500
-
2025-10-20price $28,500
-
2025-10-10price $35,000
-
2025-10-07price $39,500
-
2025-08-10price $45,900
-
2025-07-16$47,999 Active
-
2025-06-30soldstatus $289,000 Closed 769-char remark
Show marketing remark (769 chars)
Spanish Lakes One is an Active 55+ Community offering all new CBS homes. We have over 10,000 residents living in our communities. ALL residents have use of all the amenities including golf, tennis, heated pools, a huge clubhouse, plus much more! Our objective is to provide homeowners with the highest quality concrete-block home, at the most affordable price, including a metal roof, stainless steel appliances, granite counter-tops & cherry wood cabinets. We offer unique in-house financing & no-prepayment penalties, no points, no application fee, no survey, no appraisal fee, no title insurance, no Private Mortgage Insurance, and no origination fee. ALL houses offered are brand new! Start your new lifestyle now. * Taxes will be determined at closing.
-
2024-11-11$289,000 Active 769-char remark
Show marketing remark (769 chars)
Spanish Lakes One is an Active 55+ Community offering all new CBS homes. We have over 10,000 residents living in our communities. ALL residents have use of all the amenities including golf, tennis, heated pools, a huge clubhouse, plus much more! Our objective is to provide homeowners with the highest quality concrete-block home, at the most affordable price, including a metal roof, stainless steel appliances, granite counter-tops & cherry wood cabinets. We offer unique in-house financing & no-prepayment penalties, no points, no application fee, no survey, no appraisal fee, no title insurance, no Private Mortgage Insurance, and no origination fee. ALL houses offered are brand new! Start your new lifestyle now. * Taxes will be determined at closing.
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 12% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
- Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $25,013
- − Mortgage interest
- −$1,260
- − Property taxes
- −$338
- − Insurance
- −$112
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$2,001
- − Management
- −$2,001
- − Depreciation
- −$655
- Taxable income
- $18,646
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$4,475
- After-tax cash flow
- $13,419/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- St. Lucie
- NCES district ID
- 1201770
- Math proficiency
- 40% ▼ -11.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 48% ▼ -4.00%
- Median HH income
- $44,737
- Composite
- 37.28/100
- National rank
- #4449
- State rank
- #51 of 73 in FL
Livability — River Park
- Score
- 69/100
- State rank
- #451
- US rank
- #8159
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- River Park, FL
- County
- Saint Lucie County · 337,150 people
- Metro
- Port St. Lucie, FL
- Population (ZIP)
- 42,655
- Household income
- $61,628
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 1759.0
Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 338,016 people
- By 2030
- 355,687 · +5.2%
- By 2040
- 385,521 · +14.1%
- By 2050
- 406,106 · +20.1%
- By 2075
- 441,054 · +30.5%
- By 2100
- 436,885 · +29.2%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 62% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 14% Black 10% Asian 3%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
- Common ancestry
- Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Hispanic 1%
- Foreign-born
- 18% · Canada, Jamaica, China
- Languages at home
- 76% English-only · Spanish 16% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%
Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie
- 2024 margin
- Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -155.80%
- Current HPI
- 371.0573
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 1.92%
- Metro
- Port St. Lucie, FL
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.28%
- F500 in state
- 36
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Industrial Technology | 2 | $29B |
|
||
| Insurance | 2 | $17B |
|
||
| Retail | 1 | $60B |
|
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| Technology Distribution | 1 | $58B |
|
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| Homebuilding | 1 | $35B |
|
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| Technology Manufacturing | 1 | $35B |
|
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Price history
-92.2% since first listed10 events — show timeline
- 2026-05-26 Listed $22,500 FSBO.com
- 2026-01-17 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
- 2025-12-03 Price Changed $34,500 Beaches MLS
- 2025-10-20 Price Changed $28,500 Beaches MLS
- 2025-10-10 Price Changed $35,000 Beaches MLS
- 2025-10-07 Price Changed $39,500 Beaches MLS
- 2025-08-10 Price Changed $45,900 Beaches MLS
- 2025-07-16 Listed $47,999 Beaches MLS
- 2025-06-30 Sold (MLS) $289,000 Beaches MLS
- 2024-11-11 Listed $289,000 Beaches MLS
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…