313 Sand Oak Blvd · Panama City Beach, FL 32413

$349,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,098 sqft · Townhouse public records · 20 Days on market

Built 2011 Est $348k · at est. ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.8/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.4/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Largest town Home Floorplan + Corner Lot • 2,098 Sq Ft • 2-Car Garage • Oversized Side Yard • Private Wooded Backyard • West End PCB • Pool Nearby At approximately $166 per square foot, this property represents exceptional value for its size, location, and unique lot positioning. one of the largest and best-positioned townhomes in Whispering Dunes, located in the highly desirable West End of Panama City Beach. This spacious 2,098 square foot townhome stands out as one of the largest floorplans in the Whispering Dunes community and is ideally positioned on a corner lot with no adjoining neighbor on one side. The first floor features 9-foot ceilings and a seamle

Key facts

• Community pool
• Pet friendly hoa
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• OVERSIZED SIDE YARD
• PRIVATE WOODED BACKYARD
• COMMUNITY POOL
• PET FRIENDLY HOA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $349k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $349k).
• Recommended offer: $344k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 2.6% in Panama City Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#172 in FL, #2,624 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1249 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,409/mo this rent would consume 66% of the median local household income ($80k/yr) (locally 531% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($344k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $343,765 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.43%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $348,268
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
313 Sand Oak Blvd	0.00mi	3/2.5	2,098 (0%)	1mo	$345,000	$164	97
111 Sand Oak Blvd	0.16mi	3/2.5	1,898 (-10%)	8mo	$353,000	$186	68
123 Sand Oak Blvd	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,898 (-10%)	24mo	$315,000	$166	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $-340
• Equity at exit: $52,037

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $44,213
• Equity at exit: $30,175

Cash invested: $97,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32413

• Home prices YoY: -34.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 1249
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,409 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,830
• Tax from tax record: −$332 /mo · $3,988/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$926
• Net cashflow: $1,050

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,080

Max offer price $349,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,247	-5% $1,149	+0% $1,050	+5% $951	+10% $852
Rent	-10% $702	-5% $876	+0% $1,050	+5% $1,224	+10% $1,398
Rate	-1.0pp $1,226	-0.5pp $1,139	base $1,050	+0.5pp $959	+1.0pp $867

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,250
• Closing costs: $10,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
238 Oleander Dr Unit 1462121P Panama City, FL	4.0	4.0	1732	$4,298	$2.48	14d	1	0.46mi
121 Christmas Tree Ln Unit 1511625P Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1496	$11,089	$7.41	22d	1	0.58mi
21310 Pompano Ave Unit 1511639P Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1883	$6,011	$3.19	14d	1	0.88mi
223 E Lakeshore Dr Unit 1511640P Panama City Beach, FL	4.0	3.5	2594	$7,599	$2.93	22d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-20
   historical $2,350
3. 2026-04-14
   price $2,350
4. 2026-04-07
   price $2,400
5. 2026-03-31
   listed $349,000 Active
6. 2026-03-11
   listed $2,500
7. 2025-03-21
   historical $2,500
8. 2025-02-14
   listed $2,500
9. 2024-04-14
   historical $2,300
10. 2024-04-12
    listed $2,300
11. 2024-04-10
    historical $2,300
12. 2024-04-03
    price $2,300
13. 2024-03-15
    listed $2,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,988 · $332/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,988 · $332/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $52,907
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,549
• − Property taxes: −$3,988
• − Insurance: −$3,248
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,233
• − Management: −$4,233
• − Depreciation: −$10,153
• Taxable income: $7,504
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,801
• After-tax cash flow: $10,798/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Panama City Beach

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #172
• US rank: #2624

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Panama City Beach, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 50,689
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 15,453
• Household income: $80,039
• Rent vs Own: 29.8% rent · 70.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 531.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -185.97%
• Current HPI: 354.7469
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.52%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-6.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — CPARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Rental Removed $2,350 APPFOLIO
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $2,350 APPFOLIO
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $2,400 APPFOLIO
• 2026-03-31 Listed $349,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-03-11 Listed for Rent $2,500 APPFOLIO
• 2025-03-21 Rental Removed $2,500 APPFOLIO
• 2025-02-14 Listed for Rent $2,500 APPFOLIO
• 2024-04-14 Rental Removed $2,300 APPFOLIO
• 2024-04-12 Listed for Rent $2,300 APPFOLIO
• 2024-04-10 Rental Removed $2,300 APPFOLIO
• 2024-04-03 Price Changed $2,300 APPFOLIO
• 2024-03-15 Listed for Rent $2,500 APPFOLIO

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,988 · -1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.