1417 Delaware Ave · Toms River, NJ 08753

$389,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,684 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1973 7,520 sqft lot Est $524k · 26% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

LARGE BI-LEVEL HAS NEW KITCHEN, NEW HTWTR HEATER, FIREPLCE IN FAM RM/ABOVE GRD POOL, FISHPOND, SPKR SYSTEM ON WELL/PRIVATE YD BACKS UP TO WOODS/CLOSE TO SCHOOL AND SHOPPING. QUIET NEBRHD SHOW AND SELL.

Key facts

• Bi-level home
• Fenced private yard
• Oversized garage

Tags

• BI-LEVEL HOME
• FENCED PRIVATE YARD
• OVERSIZED GARAGE
• PEACEFUL NEIGHBORHOOD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $390k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-12 ($-148/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $388k (0.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $352k (9.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $352k (9.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.8% in Toms River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#61 in NJ, #1,538 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D, cost of living F.
• Toms River Regional School District (suburban): math 18% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #316 of 472 in NJ (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 424 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($105k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $119k; list at $390k implies a 228% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $351,906 (9.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.14%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $523,724
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1917 Red Cedar St	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,646 (-2%)	2mo	$479,000	$291	66
655 Garfield Ave	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,558 (-8%)	8mo	$485,000	$311	60
1938 Birchbark Pl	0.56mi	3/2.5	1,550 (-8%)	9mo	$495,000	$319	52
1472 Nevada Dr	0.75mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,694 (+1%)	7mo	$510,000	$301	51
1090 Dove St	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,834 (+9%)	4mo	$540,000	$294	51
1940 New St	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,850 (+10%)	3mo	$475,000	$257	50
2295 Windsor Ave	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-10%)	8mo	$475,000	$314	48
2010 Pine Meadow Ave	0.54mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,822 (+8%)	9mo	$530,000	$291	45
1109 Carriage Ct	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,533 (-9%)	8mo	$500,000	$326	44
1910 Birchbark Pl	0.63mi	3/3.0	1,456 (-14%)	1mo	$515,000	$354	43
3124 Stanley Dr	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,562 (-7%)	10mo	$475,000	$304	42
1234 Standish Rd	0.61mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,480 (-12%)	12mo	$535,000	$361	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.49% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-69,118
• Equity at exit: $58,135

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-81,704
• Equity at exit: $33,711

Cash invested: $109,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08753

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 424
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,519 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax from tax record: −$585 /mo · $7,023/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$739
• Net cashflow: $-12

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,535

Max offer price $387,727

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,475
• Closing costs: $11,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
550 Roosevelt Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	1.5	1200	$2,950	$2.46	10d	1	0.79mi
3126 Windsor Ave Toms River, NJ	4.0	3.0	1900	$4,750	$2.50	1d	1	0.91mi
2334 Adams Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	2.0	1500	$3,250	$2.17	1d	1	1.03mi
3118 Glasgow Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	2.0	1536	$3,300	$2.15	1d	1	1.16mi
536 River Dr Toms River, NJ	4.0	1.5	2074	$3,500	$1.69	44d	1	1.21mi
112 Minturn Rd Toms River, NJ	4.0	1.0	1287	$3,400	$2.64	2d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2025-05-09
   status Pending
2. 2025-04-28
   listed $389,900 Active
3. 1999-06-23
   soldstatus $119,000
4. 1999-06-22
   soldstatus $119,000 201-char remark

   Show marketing remark (201 chars)

   LARGE BI-LEVEL HAS NEW KITCHEN, NEW HTWTR HEATER, FIREPLCE IN FAM RM/ABOVE GRD POOL, FISHPOND, SPKR SYSTEM ON WELL/PRIVATE YD BACKS UP TO WOODS/CLOSE TO SCHOOL AND SHOPPING. QUIET NEBRHD SHOW AND SELL.

5. 1999-05-10
   historical 201-char remark

   Show marketing remark (201 chars)

   LARGE BI-LEVEL HAS NEW KITCHEN, NEW HTWTR HEATER, FIREPLCE IN FAM RM/ABOVE GRD POOL, FISHPOND, SPKR SYSTEM ON WELL/PRIVATE YD BACKS UP TO WOODS/CLOSE TO SCHOOL AND SHOPPING. QUIET NEBRHD SHOW AND SELL.

6. 1999-01-12
   listed $124,900 201-char remark

   Show marketing remark (201 chars)

   LARGE BI-LEVEL HAS NEW KITCHEN, NEW HTWTR HEATER, FIREPLCE IN FAM RM/ABOVE GRD POOL, FISHPOND, SPKR SYSTEM ON WELL/PRIVATE YD BACKS UP TO WOODS/CLOSE TO SCHOOL AND SHOPPING. QUIET NEBRHD SHOW AND SELL.

7. 1983-03-01
   soldstatus $57,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,023 · $585/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,366 · $697/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,343/yr (+$112/mo · 19.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 29% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,229
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,840
• − Property taxes: −$7,023
• − Insurance: −$1,950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,378
• − Management: −$3,378
• − Depreciation: −$11,343
• Taxable loss: −$6,683
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,604
• After-tax cash flow: $1,456/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Toms River Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3416230
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $72,370
• Composite: 29.07/100
• National rank: #6602
• State rank: #316 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Toms River

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #61
• US rank: #1538

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute D Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Toms River, NJ
• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• City population: 131,205
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 65,448
• Household income: $105,224
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 828.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 7% Asian 4% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Guatemala, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -527.36%
• Current HPI: 374.5075
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.49%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+578.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-05-09 Pending — MOMLS
• 2025-04-28 Listed $389,900 MOMLS
• 1999-06-23 Sold (Public Records) $119,000 Public Records
• 1999-06-22 Sold (MLS) $119,000 MOMLS
• 1999-05-10 Delisted — MOMLS
• 1999-01-12 Listed $124,900 MOMLS
• 1983-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $57,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,023 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.