5079 Pennington Ln · Pea Ridge, FL 32571

$190,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1972 10,672 sqft lot Est $129k · 48% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.5/30.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

HURRY!!!! WILL NOT LAST LONG. CONVENIENT TO SHOPPING AND SCHOOLS. LOCATED ON DEAD END STREET. GREAT FIRST TIME FAMILY HOME.

Key facts

• Mature oak trees
• Eat in kitchen
• Sliding glass doors

Tags

• WELL MAINTAINED BRICK HOME
• SHADED QUARTER ACRE LOT
• MATURE OAK TREES
• SPACIOUS FENCED BACKYARD
• EAT IN KITCHEN
• SLIDING GLASS DOORS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 covered space, total 1 parking space)
• Utilities: Aluminum electrical wiring; Septic tank
• Home design: One-story brick home; Slab foundation; Metal roof; Resale property; Homestead exempt
• Construction: Brick construction; Slab foundation; Metal roof; One level
• Exterior features: Patio; Rain gutters; Chain link fencing around the backyard; Paved, county-maintained road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Laminate counters; Built-in microwave; Dishwasher; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor; Additional bedrooms on the first floor
• Flooring: Tile; Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fans for cooling
• Interior features: Baseboards; Ceiling fan(s); Storm door(s); Some blinds
• Laundry & utility: Washer/Dryer hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $284 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (6.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $178k (6.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 4.5% in Pea Ridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#459 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 665 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $82k; list at $190k implies a 132% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,955 (6.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.41%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $128,520
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4727 Cyril Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,080 (0%)	4mo	$100,000	$93	89
4697 Cyril Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,080 (0%)	3mo	$210,000	$194	87
4531 Sunrise Dr	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,008 (-7%)	5mo	$120,000	$119	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-13,267
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $9,361
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32571

• Home prices YoY: -17.7%
• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 665
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,780 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $551/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $284

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,420

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4933 Bell Ridge Ln Milton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	865	$1,437	$1.66	14d	8	0.86mi
4496 Fiske St Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1418	$1,850	$1.30	14d	1	1.08mi
5385 E Avenida de Golf Milton, FL	2.0	1.0	792	$1,200	$1.52	14d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $190,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $190,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $190,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $190,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $190,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   statusdays on market $190,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-05-18
   status Pending
8. 2026-05-11
   listed $190,000 Active
9. 2004-09-08
   soldstatus $82,000
10. 2004-09-03
    soldstatus $82,000 126-char remark

    Show marketing remark (126 chars)

    HURRY!!!! WILL NOT LAST LONG. CONVENIENT TO SHOPPING AND SCHOOLS. LOCATED ON DEAD END STREET. GREAT FIRST TIME FAMILY HOME.

11. 2004-07-10
    listed $81,900 126-char remark

    Show marketing remark (126 chars)

    HURRY!!!! WILL NOT LAST LONG. CONVENIENT TO SHOPPING AND SCHOOLS. LOCATED ON DEAD END STREET. GREAT FIRST TIME FAMILY HOME.

12. 1986-01-01
    soldstatus $38,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $551 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,577 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,026/yr (+$86/mo · 186.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,355
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$551
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,708
• − Management: −$1,708
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable income: $267
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$64
• After-tax cash flow: $3,349/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pea Ridge

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #459
• US rank: #8316

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pea Ridge, FL
• County: Santa Rosa County · 194,764 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,171
• Household income: $87,617
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 301.0

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.39%
• Current HPI: 290.2953
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.72%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+400.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — PARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $190,000 PARMLS
• 2004-09-08 Sold (Public Records) $82,000 Public Records
• 2004-09-03 Sold (MLS) $82,000 PARMLS
• 2004-07-10 Listed $81,900 PARMLS
• 1986-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $38,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $551 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.