5926 Golden Cove Rd · Cove, TX 77523

$269,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,326 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 2017 5,488 sqft lot Est $391k · 31% under $29/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this gorgeous neighborhood! Terrific 4 bedroom and 2.5 bath home with a 2 car garage. Enjoy preparing meals in this impressive kitchen equipped with ample cabinets and generous counter space. Lighting, ceiling fans, and fixtures flow throughout. The primary bedroom features plush carpet, a spacious closet, and a private bathroom. Head to the backyard for the perfect private area to enjoy the outdoors. A must see! This home has been virtually staged to illustrate its potential

Key facts

• Private bath
• Functional layout
• 5,488 sq ft lot

Tags

• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• GENEROUS LIVING AREAS
• KITCHEN WITH STORAGE SPACE
• WELCOMING DINING AREA
• PRIVATE BATH
• PLENTY OF CLOSET SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $269k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $107 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $260k (3.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $260k (3.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 5.3% in Cove — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#766 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Barbers Hill ISD (rural): math 72% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #12 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Barbers Hill El South (math 68% / reading 62%, grade B+, #246 of 4,322 statewide, top 6%, 883 students, 37% FRL); Barbers Hill Middle South (math 77% / reading 63%, grade A, #58 of 1,662 statewide, top 4%, 636 students, 0% FRL); Barbers Hill H S (math 70% / reading 74%, grade B+, #95 of 1,632 statewide, top 7%, 1,972 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 12% FRL vs 28% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 776 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 629 units permitted in Chambers County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chambers County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $259,694 (3.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.71%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $390,768
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5419 Tammy Ln	0.48mi	4/2.0	2,283 (-2%)	8mo	$479,000	$210	62
1814 Caroline Ave	0.54mi	4/2.0	2,366 (+2%)	9mo	$419,000	$177	58
13923 S River Dr	0.56mi	4/2.0	2,272 (-2%)	9mo	$319,390	$141	56
14227 Angelina Dr	0.52mi	4/3.5	2,601 (+12%)	1mo	$399,000	$153	55
14514 Rain Tree Dr	0.50mi	4/2.5	2,161 (-7%)	9mo	$325,000	$150	53
5527 Snapping Turtle Rd	0.39mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,042 (-12%)	2mo	$249,000	$122	51
1815 Magnolia Bnd	0.61mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,100 (-10%)	0mo	$410,000	$195	46
14023 S River Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,089 (-10%)	5mo	$366,000	$175	44
14315 Pecos Ln	0.53mi	4/3.0	2,634 (+13%)	10mo	$419,000	$159	42
14150 Little River Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,089 (-10%)	5mo	$350,000	$168	40
14127 Little River Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,145 (-8%)	6mo	$349,000	$163	40
1406 William Trce	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,114 (-9%)	6mo	$459,000	$217	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-35,576
• Equity at exit: $40,109

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-17,264
• Equity at exit: $23,258

Cash invested: $75,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77523

• Home prices YoY: -31.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 776
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,597 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,411
• Tax from tax record: −$393 /mo · $4,713/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$545
• Net cashflow: $107

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,461

Max offer price $269,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,250
• Closing costs: $8,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8411 Hannah Rd Baytown, TX	4.0	2.5	2329	$2,195	$0.94	24d	1	0.49mi
8414 Liberty Sky Rd Baytown, TX	3.0	2.5	2046	$2,095	$1.02	24d	1	0.50mi
14739 Sweet Water Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1821	$2,395	$1.32	1d	1	0.81mi
14930 Spring Forest Ln Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1829	$2,750	$1.50	43d	1	1.00mi
4814 Emerald Bay Cir Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1666	$2,191	$1.32	22d	1	1.04mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-04-09
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-02
   status Pending
3. 2026-03-30
   listed $269,000 Active
4. 2022-12-14
   soldstatus
5. 2022-12-12
   soldstatus Sold 496-char remark

   Show marketing remark (496 chars)

   Welcome to this gorgeous neighborhood! Terrific 4 bedroom and 2.5 bath home with a 2 car garage. Enjoy preparing meals in this impressive kitchen equipped with ample cabinets and generous counter space. Lighting, ceiling fans, and fixtures flow throughout. The primary bedroom features plush carpet, a spacious closet, and a private bathroom. Head to the backyard for the perfect private area to enjoy the outdoors. A must see! This home has been virtually staged to illustrate its potential

6. 2022-11-12
   status Pending 496-char remark

   Show marketing remark (496 chars)

   Welcome to this gorgeous neighborhood! Terrific 4 bedroom and 2.5 bath home with a 2 car garage. Enjoy preparing meals in this impressive kitchen equipped with ample cabinets and generous counter space. Lighting, ceiling fans, and fixtures flow throughout. The primary bedroom features plush carpet, a spacious closet, and a private bathroom. Head to the backyard for the perfect private area to enjoy the outdoors. A must see! This home has been virtually staged to illustrate its potential

7. 2022-10-20
   price $247,000 496-char remark

   Show marketing remark (496 chars)

   Welcome to this gorgeous neighborhood! Terrific 4 bedroom and 2.5 bath home with a 2 car garage. Enjoy preparing meals in this impressive kitchen equipped with ample cabinets and generous counter space. Lighting, ceiling fans, and fixtures flow throughout. The primary bedroom features plush carpet, a spacious closet, and a private bathroom. Head to the backyard for the perfect private area to enjoy the outdoors. A must see! This home has been virtually staged to illustrate its potential

8. 2022-10-06
   price $253,000 496-char remark

   Show marketing remark (496 chars)

   Welcome to this gorgeous neighborhood! Terrific 4 bedroom and 2.5 bath home with a 2 car garage. Enjoy preparing meals in this impressive kitchen equipped with ample cabinets and generous counter space. Lighting, ceiling fans, and fixtures flow throughout. The primary bedroom features plush carpet, a spacious closet, and a private bathroom. Head to the backyard for the perfect private area to enjoy the outdoors. A must see! This home has been virtually staged to illustrate its potential

9. 2022-09-22
   price $270,000 496-char remark

   Show marketing remark (496 chars)

   Welcome to this gorgeous neighborhood! Terrific 4 bedroom and 2.5 bath home with a 2 car garage. Enjoy preparing meals in this impressive kitchen equipped with ample cabinets and generous counter space. Lighting, ceiling fans, and fixtures flow throughout. The primary bedroom features plush carpet, a spacious closet, and a private bathroom. Head to the backyard for the perfect private area to enjoy the outdoors. A must see! This home has been virtually staged to illustrate its potential

10. 2022-09-08
    price $275,000 496-char remark

    Show marketing remark (496 chars)

    Welcome to this gorgeous neighborhood! Terrific 4 bedroom and 2.5 bath home with a 2 car garage. Enjoy preparing meals in this impressive kitchen equipped with ample cabinets and generous counter space. Lighting, ceiling fans, and fixtures flow throughout. The primary bedroom features plush carpet, a spacious closet, and a private bathroom. Head to the backyard for the perfect private area to enjoy the outdoors. A must see! This home has been virtually staged to illustrate its potential

11. 2022-08-11
    price $278,000 496-char remark

    Show marketing remark (496 chars)

    Welcome to this gorgeous neighborhood! Terrific 4 bedroom and 2.5 bath home with a 2 car garage. Enjoy preparing meals in this impressive kitchen equipped with ample cabinets and generous counter space. Lighting, ceiling fans, and fixtures flow throughout. The primary bedroom features plush carpet, a spacious closet, and a private bathroom. Head to the backyard for the perfect private area to enjoy the outdoors. A must see! This home has been virtually staged to illustrate its potential

12. 2022-07-29
    price $285,000 496-char remark

    Show marketing remark (496 chars)

    Welcome to this gorgeous neighborhood! Terrific 4 bedroom and 2.5 bath home with a 2 car garage. Enjoy preparing meals in this impressive kitchen equipped with ample cabinets and generous counter space. Lighting, ceiling fans, and fixtures flow throughout. The primary bedroom features plush carpet, a spacious closet, and a private bathroom. Head to the backyard for the perfect private area to enjoy the outdoors. A must see! This home has been virtually staged to illustrate its potential

13. 2022-07-15
    price $297,000 496-char remark

    Show marketing remark (496 chars)

    Welcome to this gorgeous neighborhood! Terrific 4 bedroom and 2.5 bath home with a 2 car garage. Enjoy preparing meals in this impressive kitchen equipped with ample cabinets and generous counter space. Lighting, ceiling fans, and fixtures flow throughout. The primary bedroom features plush carpet, a spacious closet, and a private bathroom. Head to the backyard for the perfect private area to enjoy the outdoors. A must see! This home has been virtually staged to illustrate its potential

14. 2022-07-01
    price $311,000 496-char remark

    Show marketing remark (496 chars)

    Welcome to this gorgeous neighborhood! Terrific 4 bedroom and 2.5 bath home with a 2 car garage. Enjoy preparing meals in this impressive kitchen equipped with ample cabinets and generous counter space. Lighting, ceiling fans, and fixtures flow throughout. The primary bedroom features plush carpet, a spacious closet, and a private bathroom. Head to the backyard for the perfect private area to enjoy the outdoors. A must see! This home has been virtually staged to illustrate its potential

15. 2022-06-10
    listed $321,000 Active 496-char remark

    Show marketing remark (496 chars)

    Welcome to this gorgeous neighborhood! Terrific 4 bedroom and 2.5 bath home with a 2 car garage. Enjoy preparing meals in this impressive kitchen equipped with ample cabinets and generous counter space. Lighting, ceiling fans, and fixtures flow throughout. The primary bedroom features plush carpet, a spacious closet, and a private bathroom. Head to the backyard for the perfect private area to enjoy the outdoors. A must see! This home has been virtually staged to illustrate its potential

16. 2022-05-04
    soldstatus
17. 2021-04-20
    soldstatus
18. 2020-12-16
    historical
19. 2020-11-25
    price $245,000
20. 2020-11-11
    listed $250,000 Active
21. 2017-09-29
    soldstatus Sold
22. 2017-09-01
    status Pending
23. 2017-08-25
    listed $214,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,713 · $393/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,923 · $410/mo
• Expected delta: +$209/yr (+$17/mo · 4.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,163
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,068
• − Property taxes: −$4,713
• − Insurance: −$1,345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,493
• − Management: −$2,493
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$7,825
• Taxable loss: −$3,123
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$749
• After-tax cash flow: $2,034/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Barbers Hill ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809450
• Math proficiency: 72% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $87,257
• Composite: 61.73/100
• National rank: #737
• State rank: #12 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cove

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #766
• US rank: #13996

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chambers County · 30,186 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,186
• Household income: $124,188
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 549.0

Population outlook (Chambers County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,946 people
• By 2030: 51,094 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 59,578 · +26.9%
• By 2050: 68,318 · +45.5%
• By 2075: 90,485 · +92.7%
• By 2100: 104,885 · +123.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 11% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Chambers

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.6) · D 16.8% · R 82.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -51.2pp · 2024: -65.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.6 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+61.1 2008: R+51.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.33%
• Current HPI: 222.6999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.42%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+25.2% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-30 Listed $269,000 HARMLS
• 2022-12-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-12-12 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-11-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-10-20 Price Changed $247,000 HARMLS
• 2022-10-06 Price Changed $253,000 HARMLS
• 2022-09-22 Price Changed $270,000 HARMLS
• 2022-09-08 Price Changed $275,000 HARMLS
• 2022-08-11 Price Changed $278,000 HARMLS
• 2022-07-29 Price Changed $285,000 HARMLS
• 2022-07-15 Price Changed $297,000 HARMLS
• 2022-07-01 Price Changed $311,000 HARMLS
• 2022-06-10 Listed $321,000 HARMLS
• 2022-05-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-04-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-12-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2020-11-25 Price Changed $245,000 HARMLS
• 2020-11-11 Listed $250,000 HARMLS
• 2017-09-29 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2017-09-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-08-25 Listed $214,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+34.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,713 · -6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.